The sales numbers:  GRIM.

I am sure that they will be all over the news.

“Existing-home sales plunged to their lowest level in 15 years in July as inventories soared, painting a grim picture for the housing market absent government support.

“Home resales dropped a record 27.2%—nearly twice as much as analysts had expected—to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Meanwhile, inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, pressuring already depressed home prices. Inventories are at their highest level in more than a decade.”

This is not a surprise.

Residential real estate is a game of positioning.  Of immediacy.  Of marketing impact.

Give financial incentives to lots of buyers to hurry up and buy . . .  they will and then prices and sales will crater.

Pull demand forward  . . . and there is a snap back the next quarter.

None of this was unpredicted.

Sellers in Perrysburg today have to have their home in PERFECT condition.  Priced PERFECTLY to the market.   They have to be on the top of their game.

The numbers are grim – but houses that are presented and priced well are selling.

Even in this market.

Next post: Perrysburg sales numbers . . .

My lovely, Dear Wife asked me . . . “WHY?!”

I already have an Apple laptop . . . an iPhone . . . a desktop computer . . . an Dell MLS/Windows only machine . . . and a Kindle.

“You don’t need one”, she further opined.

I disagree.

So I bought one. Even though . . .

I have never held an iPad.

I have not yet seen one.

But I have a few thoughts:

1.  I have an implicit trust in Apple.   They build it right.  They support it right.  They add value and quality.  (One great lament about Northwest Ohio?  No Apple Store here.  This must be rectified.  But the Mac Cafe is growing on me . . . )

2. I am constantly trying to be a better “virtual” Realtor.  Virtual?  Able to provide help and answers and information in the field . . . where my clients are located.   Many, many years ago I outfitted a Ford Econoline van to be my “Mobile Office Vehicle”.  Why?  There were no portable tiny hand held computers.  No wi-fi.  I needed a big power supply to power the big CD disk that held the comparable sales data in the big computer in the back of the van . . . so that I could price houses in the field.  Now?  I have that data on my Mac book Air and my iPhone.

3.  I am trying to embrace the paperless real estate deal.  We now digitize EVERYTHING at RE/MAX Masters and the Jon Modene Team.   I have used an HP Tablet before – to write contracts and sign them in the field.  Cumbersome.  Clunky.  Now with my new iPad . . . !

4. Apps.  It is all about the applications.  My technogeek son does not yet understand this -  it’s not about gigahertz and flops and GB of RAM.  It’s about the mobile applications that you can buy and use to do work – to generate accurate, reliable, valuable “work product”.  My need is for apps that simply help me generate work product.  Apple is the absolute leader in this.  Just ask anyone with an iPhone.

5. I truly believe that the iPad is going to revolutionize residential real estate sales.  At least for those agents who embrace change and embrace new tools.   I was the first in this area to use a lot of different and unconventional marketing tools and tactics.  The iPad is, I believe, not revolutionary.  Not incendiary.  But it will be great for productivity, professionalism, and the ability to offer more help and counsel to my clients in the field.

Yes?

Right?

Isn’t that the new word on the street.

Well, let’s dive into some of the data.

I have postulated all along, at least if you have read my blog, that the current and expanded Federal House Buying Tax Credit Stimulus Boondoggle (aka FHBTCSB) will do nothing to improve the position of sellers/homeowners today, and will hurt future sales, deform demand, mask market effects, and  . . . . in the process help to saddle our kids with debt and further bankrupt our nation.

Some have just written that Perrysburg real estate is looking up – booming in fact.

Let’s see:

Here is 2 years of MLS market data.

Let’s just look at November 2009 vs. November 2oo8.  ONLY Perrysburg single family homes.

November 08 – 340 houses for sale.   21 houses placed under contract.  20 houses closed.  Median asking price $204,900.  Median price of listings that went into contract $179,900.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2008 was $242,950.

Now let’s look at the loosey-goosey tax credit fueled, rebounding market in November of 2009:

November 09 – Only 241 houses for sale.   22 houses placed under contract.  27 houses closed.  Median asking price $220,000.  Median price of listings that went into contract $187,450.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2009 was $212,950.

Fewer for sale.

Only 1 more house “pending”.

7 more deals closed.

But … the houses are selling for $30,000 less on average.

Hello?

This is helping?   This is great program?  And the money to pay it . . . has yet to be repaid with interest?

I will note in passing that the average price per square foot has dropped from $99 to $91.

Now – the caveats.  This is a month vs. month snap shot.  The economy is different.   The numbers we are comparing are small.  The trend is more important than a slice of monthly data.

But a rebound?

A better market?

Improved prices and more equity?

Insane.

It’s not happening.

And it won’t until the jobs/employment situation is FIXED.

Here’s a snapshot of August’s real estate activity for Perrysburg (City and Township):

Available Homes
# Available: 385
Average Days on the Market: 153
Median Asking Price: $215,000

Pending Sales
# Pending: 40
Average Days on the Market: 117
Median Asking Price: $182,900

Closed Sales – August 2009
# Closed: 43
Average Days on the Market: 87
Median Sales Price: $159,000
Months Supply of Inventory: 6.4

My take:  We have just seen the beginnings of the return to normalcy.  What?  Normal Summer sales increases.   I will take that.   Prices are still dropping.  And the market is still very, very price sensitive.

Notice how well priced homes sell much quicker . . .

Welcome back – seasonality.  I have missed you for the past 6 or 7 years.    What is unknown is the effects (most likely bad) of the $8k home buyer tax credit on this market and the continuing effects of more and more lender owned inventory coming on line, and the effects of the the incredibly inept leaders we have on jobs and exports.

But NONE of that is in either my control or purview- I just sell houses in Perrysburg.

Heads up.

Hold on.

Some would say . . . that sales are up.

And that means that . . . the real estate crisis is over.

Let me share some “field notes” with those who are predicting an imminent real estate recovery.

1. I just listed 3 new REO’s today.

2. I just received a heads up from 2 different REO Asset management firms to get ready for 10 or more new assignments.  Today.

3. One of my team members is showing homes to an out of country, non-US buyer.  With cash in his pocket.  Here from overseas to pick up 10 to 20 REO homes in Toledo.  Today.

4. I just completed an appraisal on a Perrysburg REO listing.  Today.

5. My team is also showing houses and selling houses – in Perrysburg – to regular “retail” buyers – and they remain motivated to buy.  But price and value are always in mind.

6. I was just given 3 new REO listings to start processing.  Today.

The upshot – look for more inventory to be on the market.   More pressure on prices.  More lenders moving foreclosed property.  More pressure on homeowners who need to sell.  More appraisers who are being tight with value.

Hold on.

Two questions that I am ALWAYS asked:

1.  When will it sell?

2.  What do you do to market my house?

I cannot answer the first one – I can only guess.  (Unless I am the buyer!)

The second question?  I can now easily and digitally answer.

Here: The Jon Modene Team Marketing Plan.

I would insert a live link from www.issuu.com but it only likes Blogger.  Not WordPress.

What a neat website Issuu is – you can look there in the future for all my listings’ brochures and lots more content.

Marketing is ALL about getting lots of buyers into the home.   If it does not work getting traffic, I get rid of it.

Why not use the Homes Guide?

Well for 20 years it was a real estate institution.   At least around here.

Pick up one at the Kroger – and you have 200 pages of ads.

But in recent months it has shrunk and shrunk to just 10 or 15 pages.

Last Friday – they cancelled their print run.  Closed.  Kaput.

Why?

The internet killed it.  Who wants to look at  page after page and search on paper when their are better websites that are more up to date?

No one did.   Now it is dead.

Many, many houses are NOT selling.

Many, many homeowners call me or email me to ask for help. Not everyone listens or understands. That’s fine – we are in a brutal and unprecedented market. I don’t like it either, but to quote the new axiom of the day, “it is what it is” . . . . whatever that means!

1. Unmotivated Sellers. (They really don’t need to sell, so they don’t)
2. Part-Time Listing Agent. (If your Realtor has a “real job” or “other job” your house will most likely not sell – the managers at Costco frown on their employees selling houses while they work there)
3. Poor Marketing. (Print is DEAD. Sorry if you own a newspaper or a forest in Canada! – Have you heard of the internet?)
4. Price. Price. Price. (Get this wrong and NOT EVEN I can sell your house)
5. Location. (It still matters and it matters even MORE in this market)
6. Condition. (see #5 above)
7. No Showings Allowed. (Just plain crazy in this market. You might have one showing a month and you are not letting them in???)
8. Kennel Club. (I estimate that 45% of the buyers I show are either afraid of ______ (fill in the blank with cats or dogs) and/or / but are allergic to __________ (fill in the blank with cats or dogs or both). You can do the math.
9. Reduced/Discounted Selling Agent Commissions. (Yep – that’s a great plan to “save money”. You ought to fire your Realtor right now if they have done this to you – don’t understand what I am talking a out – email me for a free Special Report at jon@modene.com)
10. Wrong Buyeritis. (We actually need more than an offer today to sell a house. We need this formula for a closing to occur: House + Good *Buyer + Credit Score + Down Payment + Appraisal to Contract Price + Lender with $$$$ + Good Home Inspection + Clear Title + Sane Loan Underwriter = Closing. NONE of these steps can be skipped. *And note that the buyer has to have a JOB or cash)

So there you go – if you house has not sold, I can practically guarantee that one or more of these items is operating in your life right now.