Perrysburg Blog

Yes?

Right?

Isn’t that the new word on the street.

Well, let’s dive into some of the data.

I have postulated all along, at least if you have read my blog, that the current and expanded Federal House Buying Tax Credit Stimulus Boondoggle (aka FHBTCSB) will do nothing to improve the position of sellers/homeowners today, and will hurt future sales, deform demand, mask market effects, and  . . . . in the process help to saddle our kids with debt and further bankrupt our nation.

Some have just written that Perrysburg real estate is looking up – booming in fact.

Let’s see:

Here is 2 years of MLS market data.

Let’s just look at November 2009 vs. November 2oo8.  ONLY Perrysburg single family homes.

November 08 – 340 houses for sale.   21 houses placed under contract.  20 houses closed.  Median asking price $204,900.  Median price of listings that went into contract $179,900.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2008 was $242,950.

Now let’s look at the loosey-goosey tax credit fueled, rebounding market in November of 2009:

November 09 – Only 241 houses for sale.   22 houses placed under contract.  27 houses closed.  Median asking price $220,000.  Median price of listings that went into contract $187,450.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2009 was $212,950.

Fewer for sale.

Only 1 more house “pending”.

7 more deals closed.

But … the houses are selling for $30,000 less on average.

Hello?

This is helping?   This is great program?  And the money to pay it . . . has yet to be repaid with interest?

I will note in passing that the average price per square foot has dropped from $99 to $91.

Now – the caveats.  This is a month vs. month snap shot.  The economy is different.   The numbers we are comparing are small.  The trend is more important than a slice of monthly data.

But a rebound?

A better market?

Improved prices and more equity?

Insane.

It’s not happening.

And it won’t until the jobs/employment situation is FIXED.

Here’s a snapshot of August’s real estate activity for Perrysburg (City and Township):

Available Homes
# Available: 385
Average Days on the Market: 153
Median Asking Price: $215,000

Pending Sales
# Pending: 40
Average Days on the Market: 117
Median Asking Price: $182,900

Closed Sales – August 2009
# Closed: 43
Average Days on the Market: 87
Median Sales Price: $159,000
Months Supply of Inventory: 6.4

My take:  We have just seen the beginnings of the return to normalcy.  What?  Normal Summer sales increases.   I will take that.   Prices are still dropping.  And the market is still very, very price sensitive.

Notice how well priced homes sell much quicker . . .

Welcome back – seasonality.  I have missed you for the past 6 or 7 years.    What is unknown is the effects (most likely bad) of the $8k home buyer tax credit on this market and the continuing effects of more and more lender owned inventory coming on line, and the effects of the the incredibly inept leaders we have on jobs and exports.

But NONE of that is in either my control or purview- I just sell houses in Perrysburg.

Heads up.

Hold on.

Some would say . . . that sales are up.

And that means that . . . the real estate crisis is over.

Let me share some “field notes” with those who are predicting an imminent real estate recovery.

1. I just listed 3 new REO’s today.

2. I just received a heads up from 2 different REO Asset management firms to get ready for 10 or more new assignments.  Today.

3. One of my team members is showing homes to an out of country, non-US buyer.  With cash in his pocket.  Here from overseas to pick up 10 to 20 REO homes in Toledo.  Today.

4. I just completed an appraisal on a Perrysburg REO listing.  Today.

5. My team is also showing houses and selling houses – in Perrysburg – to regular “retail” buyers – and they remain motivated to buy.  But price and value are always in mind.

6. I was just given 3 new REO listings to start processing.  Today.

The upshot – look for more inventory to be on the market.   More pressure on prices.  More lenders moving foreclosed property.  More pressure on homeowners who need to sell.  More appraisers who are being tight with value.

Hold on.

Two questions that I am ALWAYS asked:

1.  When will it sell?

2.  What do you do to market my house?

I cannot answer the first one – I can only guess.  (Unless I am the buyer!)

The second question?  I can now easily and digitally answer.

Here: The Jon Modene Team Marketing Plan.

I would insert a live link from www.issuu.com but it only likes Blogger.  Not Wordpress.

What a neat website Issuu is – you can look there in the future for all my listings’ brochures and lots more content.

Marketing is ALL about getting lots of buyers into the home.   If it does not work getting traffic, I get rid of it.

Why not use the Homes Guide?

Well for 20 years it was a real estate institution.   At least around here.

Pick up one at the Kroger – and you have 200 pages of ads.

But in recent months it has shrunk and shrunk to just 10 or 15 pages.

Last Friday – they cancelled their print run.  Closed.  Kaput.

Why?

The internet killed it.  Who wants to look at  page after page and search on paper when their are better websites that are more up to date?

No one did.   Now it is dead.

Many, many houses are NOT selling.

Many, many homeowners call me or email me to ask for help. Not everyone listens or understands. That’s fine – we are in a brutal and unprecedented market. I don’t like it either, but to quote the new axiom of the day, “it is what it is” . . . . whatever that means!

1. Unmotivated Sellers. (They really don’t need to sell, so they don’t)
2. Part-Time Listing Agent. (If your Realtor has a “real job” or “other job” your house will most likely not sell – the managers at Costco frown on their employees selling houses while they work there)
3. Poor Marketing. (Print is DEAD. Sorry if you own a newspaper or a forest in Canada! – Have you heard of the internet?)
4. Price. Price. Price. (Get this wrong and NOT EVEN I can sell your house)
5. Location. (It still matters and it matters even MORE in this market)
6. Condition. (see #5 above)
7. No Showings Allowed. (Just plain crazy in this market. You might have one showing a month and you are not letting them in???)
8. Kennel Club. (I estimate that 45% of the buyers I show are either afraid of ______ (fill in the blank with cats or dogs) and/or / but are allergic to __________ (fill in the blank with cats or dogs or both). You can do the math.
9. Reduced/Discounted Selling Agent Commissions. (Yep – that’s a great plan to “save money”. You ought to fire your Realtor right now if they have done this to you – don’t understand what I am talking a out – email me for a free Special Report at jon@modene.com)
10. Wrong Buyeritis. (We actually need more than an offer today to sell a house. We need this formula for a closing to occur: House + Good *Buyer + Credit Score + Down Payment + Appraisal to Contract Price + Lender with $$$$ + Good Home Inspection + Clear Title + Sane Loan Underwriter = Closing. NONE of these steps can be skipped. *And note that the buyer has to have a JOB or cash)

So there you go – if you house has not sold, I can practically guarantee that one or more of these items is operating in your life right now.