Perrysburg Blog

The sky is a little brighter this week.

The sun has been shining more in Perrysburg.

And there are lots more accepted offers and buyer offer writing action in play.

Even though things could change.

And even though national indices are split – with sales down and values up.

It’s a confusing market.

But . . . “all real estate is local”.

So here is my take on the recent spate of action in the 43551:

Affordability

• Affordability is at its highest level in the past several decades.
• Many Perrysburg homes now cost 30-40% less than they did 6 or 7 years ago.

Pent-Up Demand

• Many of today’s buyers need to buy because their families have grown, they just moved here, they got a promotion or a raise, and other valid reasons.
• Sellers who hung on during our real estate decline have paid down debt (including mortgage debt), saved their money, and are now ready to move up.

Low Interest Rates

• Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remain below 4% and rates for 15-year mortgages are even less.
• Buyers are realizing that these rates are certain to rise if our national economy regains it footing.

Buyers Believe There’s Little Downside

• Buyers who were previously afraid they would lose money if they bought a home are now realizing that the risk is reduced and that they have waited long enough.
• Prices in the Perrysburg real estate market have stabilized in most segments of the market.
• The grim bloodletting in the suburbs is almost over – with values rationalized and the flight to safety of steadier values in the periphery of Toledo increasing values.

Cheaper To Own Than Rent

• It used to be cheaper to rent than own a home, but that has changed.
• Rents are soaring and now exceed the cost of home ownership in many instances.
• Given a choice, most renters would rather own their own home than pay off their landlord’s mortgage with their rent payments.

It’s that time – the time for Q1 numbers for Perrysburg.

And they are interesting.    The Blade called – asking me if Toledo real estate is picking up.   I don’t see it – but Perrysburg sellers do.  They are raising their prices.

And Perrysburg buyers are buying more houses (closed sales were down March 2012 vs. March 2011 but there are many more “sale pending” deals in the pipeline.

These are MLS only numbers for single family sales – I am not putting in condos, duplexes, etc.

Upshot:  Fewer houses closed in Q1 2012 vs. 2011

Fewer houses on the market.

More houses sales pending.

Median price in Perrysburg for Q1 2012 $189k.   For $87/sq. foot.

(Just click on the images below for full size legible versions . . . )

There’s lots of buzz out there about the improving residential market.

Good stories here.  And here.

I maintain that well priced, clean and neat houses in Perrysburg that are, let me repeat, well priced – can receive multiple offers.

But the value has to be there.

And the condition has to be right.

In the City of Toledo?  A whole different scenario is playing out.   And it’s multiple offers on mortgage-less houses or REO assets.

Regular well priced listings over $100k are sell-able but not “hot” like the prototypical Perrysburg hot listing above.

The caveat I want to point out is that this is happening in effectively a 0% interest market. 

The cost of money is almost free today.

Laughable.

What will happen when that changes and rates “zoom” up to a more normal 5 or 6 or 7%?

What will happen when capital gains taxes are raised next year by our president (hint: property values will decline in the minds of investors and then real prices will fall).

What will happen when . . . . well you get the idea.

The Case-Shiller numbers from Metro Detroit are at a current level of 70.04, down from 70.95 last month and up from 67.49 one year ago. This is a change of -2.13% from last month and +2.50% from one year ago.

Is that the REAL bottom?  Is that a REAL improvement?

The Libertarian/Free Market counter argument is found HERE for your edification.

This blog is about real estate in Perrysburg  – a hyper-local look at our little tiny market.   And since “all real estate is local” it’s appropriate to note that prices in Perrysburg are firming up while the metro Toledo area, our neighbor to the north, and much of the country are in serious trouble.

If you are a landlord in Perrysburg in 2011 you have much to be thankful for.

Your property is most likely rented.

Your tenants are on “good behavior mode” as they know that if they have to look for another 43551 rental house or condo it will not go well.

Your bank account is probably in better shape with rent receipts than if you had to sell and mark your asset to market on the bank/REO depressed current market.

And there are no hassles in Perrysburg from the local constabulary . . . unlike a rather large and more regulatory rapacious city just to the north that I will not mention.

There are – at least according to my Mark 1 Eyeball – fewer for rent signs up in Perrysburg now than in recent memory.   Only 1 of my managed properties and 0 of my own properties has a vacancy.

The WSJ has a nice piece on the situation here.

Implications?

If you are fully invested in the stock market . . . . you must be addicted to risk.   Diversify into some nice multifamily in Perrysburg or Sylvania.

If you are fully rented out . . . now is the time to raise your rents.

If you are looking to get out of the rental market . . . not a bad time to sell your multifamily property in Perrysburg (since values are based on cash flow imho).

Wow.  It snowed last night.   Which caused me to order snow tires.  I am expecting the worse . . . and hoping for the best this Winter.

Which leads me to the current market stats.

I am expecting the worse . . . and hoping for the best in the Perrysburg real estate market.  It SEEMS like things are more “back to normal” . . . but IMO things are not going to go back to what used to be.   There has been too much economic disruption and movement and change.    Values and taxes and employment have changed and shifted.   But every dollop of good news comes with a side order of bad news . . . so please do not accuse me of parroting the NAR line of “now is a great time to . . . .”

Here are this month’s single family and condo sales and numbers in Perrysburg:

Closed Sales: 82

Median Price: $204,500 (that’s the second highest monthly median price in 2 years)

Average Price/Sq. Foot (sold): $95

Sold House Average Days on the Market: 152

October 2011 Number of Houses Listed: 339

Number of Houses Pending: 41

Months Supply of Inventory: 6.6 (which is why the market seems better this month . . . )

So there you have it.   Things are getting more balanced.   But the market is still very price sensitive and buyers are still in the drivers seat.

You know I love numbers if you read this blog.   More numbers!   More stats!  More graphs!

And you might think that I therefore believe that you figure out the Perrysburg real estate market by reading the statistics reported by the media.

But, the numbers aren’t always the numbers and here’s why!

Sales Prices

• May include seller-paid buyer’s closing costs and/or bonus commissions paid to buyer agents that distort the true property value.
• On FHA loans that close today . . . almost ALWAYS includes 3.5% credits to the buyer.
• May include major repairs and or other credits on cash sales.
• Often use funky/wonky things like tax prorating methods to shove more cash to a buyer.

Average Prices

• Can be influenced substantially (higher or lower) according to the mix of properties sold during the time period.
• In a small sample size – one or two large sales can skew the numbers.

Days On Market

• Can be gamed by pulling the property off the market for 30 days, then re-listing.
• Can also be gamed by changing the address spelling (North First Street vs. N. First Street or N. 1st Street, for example).
• Often covered up by switching brokers.

So . . . the numbers you read are not always truthful.

But I still love analyzing and sharing them!

Here is a tabular report of the MSI – Month’s Supply of Inventory – for Perrysburg as of 30 days ago.

Seasonality is stronger than it was 5 years ago.

20% or so fewer houses active on the market vs. 2 years ago and WAY down over 5 years ago.

8 months or so of inventory?  Pretty balanced in my opinion – as I am hearing from more and more buyers who are NOT getting the house they bid on – which was unheard of last year.

The numbers are firming up . . .

The casino is hiring . . .

The sun is shining nice and warm in October . . .

And my team and I are selling lots of property . . .

So what do the numbers say?

Fewer Perrysburg houses on the market.

More houses in Perrysburg pending sale.

More houses in Perrysburg closed.

And fewer houses in Perrysburg failing to sell.

What’s not to like about these numbers as seen on this chart?  (you can click on it for a full size view . . . )

A recovery?  I think not.   Not until more and better things happen on the employment front.   We are seeing natural market forces balancing out a bloated inventory.   I am seeing cash investors moving in to buy good deals (I personally wrote 4 cash offers today, and negotiated a cash offer on a Perrysburg listing . . .).   I am seeing sellers who can’t afford to sell call the bank, or lease the house out and move to Florida or S. Carolina anyway.

No.   Not a recovery.   But something better than what we had last third quarter in 2010.

A good question – and one that really matters to sellers/owners in Perrysburg.

Lot’s of people (for example the National Association of REALTORS . . . who charges a lot for the info).

But my observations for June/July 2011 in Perrysburg are as follows:

1. People who are moving here.   Transferees.   Lots of them.

2. People who live around here and want to be closer to jobs and get the excellent Perrysburg Schools.

3. People who live here and have sold their house but want lower taxes than where they were (Ottawa Hills and Sylvania).

4. People who live here and are buying houses for their kids.  Seriously.   Doing a lot of this right now.

5. People who were renting here and want to buy into our market.

I am certain there are lots of buyers and buyer stories.

Many people buying in Perrysburg are first time buyers.  They are going to use FHA financing.  They are going to want the seller to help.  So you mentally have to be ready to “help”.    Investors?  Many are prowling in Perrysburg right now.  They often pay cash.  And they don’t care what it “was worth” or what it “sold for before”.  They are buying strictly for cash flow.

These are the predominate ones that my team and I are helping right now.

You want to sell?   You need to think about who is buying and make sure your home/real estate fits the bill.

Just for your perspective.

Just for comparison.

This is for the City of Toledo ONLY over a 3 year period.

2010 Q3 vs. 2007 Q3 . . .

1300 fewer listings on the market.   -20%

200 fewer listings pending. -23%

300 fewer listings closed.  -35%

That is a changed, impacted, depressed market.

Burning houses?

Increasing tax rates?

A scarcity of buyers? (not in my world – sold 2 or 3 today . . . and very busy . . . )

What is wrong?  What is the new thing?

The Busted Appraisal.

I saw this about 15 years ago with the ratcheting effect of appraisals in condo conversions.  Discreet price jumps had to conform to a steady pace of higher appraisals.

Appraisers are like pendulums – following behind the real velocity and position of the market.

But they catch up!  And they have now in Perrysburg and in all of Northwest Ohio.

Wow – to think I worried and worked appraisers to keep raising valuations in steps to help condo projects price properly.  Those were the days!

We could only wish for that problem today.

Today the problem is the busted appraisal.   The failure of the house to appraise.

Money quote from a very good news article you can read:

“There’s been a pendulum swing in appraisals comparable to the one we’ve seen in mortgage credit, from foolishly lax to overly restrictive,” said Walt Molony of the National Association of Realtors. He reported that as recently as October, one in 10 member agents said they’d had a contract canceled as a result of a low appraisal, 13 percent said they’d had a contract delayed, and 16 percent said they’d had a contract negotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low appraisal.

The pendulum has swung.  Way back to where it was.

If you own a house with a paid of mortgage and you need to or want to sell it . . . you are still going to be severely effected by the foreclosure pendulum.

Sellers need to be informed.

Buyers need to be aware.