The sky is a little brighter this week.

The sun has been shining more in Perrysburg.

And there are lots more accepted offers and buyer offer writing action in play.

Even though things could change.

And even though national indices are split – with sales down and values up.

It’s a confusing market.

But . . . “all real estate is local”.

So here is my take on the recent spate of action in the 43551:

Affordability

• Affordability is at its highest level in the past several decades.
• Many Perrysburg homes now cost 30-40% less than they did 6 or 7 years ago.

Pent-Up Demand

• Many of today’s buyers need to buy because their families have grown, they just moved here, they got a promotion or a raise, and other valid reasons.
• Sellers who hung on during our real estate decline have paid down debt (including mortgage debt), saved their money, and are now ready to move up.

Low Interest Rates

• Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remain below 4% and rates for 15-year mortgages are even less.
• Buyers are realizing that these rates are certain to rise if our national economy regains it footing.

Buyers Believe There’s Little Downside

• Buyers who were previously afraid they would lose money if they bought a home are now realizing that the risk is reduced and that they have waited long enough.
• Prices in the Perrysburg real estate market have stabilized in most segments of the market.
• The grim bloodletting in the suburbs is almost over – with values rationalized and the flight to safety of steadier values in the periphery of Toledo increasing values.

Cheaper To Own Than Rent

• It used to be cheaper to rent than own a home, but that has changed.
• Rents are soaring and now exceed the cost of home ownership in many instances.
• Given a choice, most renters would rather own their own home than pay off their landlord’s mortgage with their rent payments.

And they are interesting.    The Blade called – asking me if Toledo real estate is picking up.   I don’t see it – but Perrysburg sellers do.  They are raising their prices.

And Perrysburg buyers are buying more houses (closed sales were down March 2012 vs. March 2011 but there are many more “sale pending” deals in the pipeline.

These are MLS only numbers for single family sales – I am not putting in condos, duplexes, etc.

Upshot:  Fewer houses closed in Q1 2012 vs. 2011

Fewer houses on the market.

More houses sales pending.

Median price in Perrysburg for Q1 2012 $189k.   For $87/sq. foot.

(Just click on the images below for full size legible versions . . . )

New on the market – and redone inside by the corporate owner with new paint, carpet, and appliances.

Rossford Schools in Perrysburg Township.

4 beds and 2.5 baths.   An interesting and 60% finished hidden room off of the master closet . . . retreat?  Office?  Safe house?  You decide.

$140,900 is all – and there is a “HomePath” option for any buyer:  no appraisal.  No PMI.  All closing costs can be financed also.

Three Meadows is “newer” than Colonial Acres.

In the 1800′s and 1900′s?  It was a farm – with lots of apple trees and apple orchards and mature trees and woods.

It was a huge – in fact at the time in the 1970′s – the largest master planned community in Northwest Ohio ever developed.

Mixed use.  Recreation. Commercial.  Residential.

Oh . . . and I grew up in Three Meadows.  So it’s near and dear to my heart.

But there’s another subdivision there – and it was there first:  Colonial Acres.

The houses are pretty much the same.  The layout is the same.  The location is adjacent.

What’s the difference?

The mailbox!   If the mailbox is the fancy, painted wood, brown and gold trim colored style?  You are in Three Meadows.

Regular mailbox – the house is in Colonial Acres.

I will dovetail this arcane Perrysburg real estate tip with my newest Perrysburg listing -

904 Bexton in Colonial Acres.

3 beds, den, Florida room, newer David Hahn kitchen, fireplace, all appliances.

And most importantly to me . . .  it overlooks the backyard of my best friend in Middle School and Perrysburg High School – Carlos Weeber.  We used to play with his dog Saddie adjacent to this house.  And then head out . . . . in his Porsche 914 to cause trouble and mayhem all around Perrysburg.  But those stories and the resulting arrest records/damage claims/insurance settlements must all remain sealed at this time . . .

The house in question?  Updated.  Mint condition. Impeccable.

The neighborhood?  Well, now you know about the history and design of Three Meadows/Colonial Acres.

And since the local miscreants have all gone on and moved on to professional positions in sales/management/medicine/and public service . . . the quality of the area has only gone up.

This is the back yard view – from Carlos’s old yard to help bring back my memories.

$149,900 buys it.   And the estates’ “tag sale” is in a couple of weeks if you want to pick up some great furniture.

It’s always good to end on a high note.

Here is a table of SOLD prices in Perrysburg, looking back 2 full years.

Even if it’s not that high.

Prices in Perrysburg for single family home sales were technically down in December 2011 vs. 2010.  But the average price was higher.

Seasonality has fully returned . . . which means lower closing numbers are in store for January, February, and March.

What about the price trends for what sellers are asking and buyers are writing accepted offers on?

Glad you asked!

Here’s your pretty chart (just click on it to read it in normal size . . . )

Remarkably steady and constant if you factor our the seasonality effects . . . Still not a normal market in Perrysburg . . . but we are getting healthier!

There are a lot of them!

They come here to buy.

They come here because Perrysburg real estate is a very safe buy.

They come here because of the schools, the lifestyle, and obviously the employment.

And they buy a lot of real estate -  MSNBC.com reports that foreign buyers bought over $80 billion in US property in 2010.  That was up from $66 billion in 2009.

I have sold property in and around Perrysburg to buyers from the Ukraine, Poland, Russia, France, Great Brittan, China, Vietnam, Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Italy, and Canada (is Canada that foreign?).

What are foreign buyers looking for in Perrysburg?  The exact same thing that any buyer is -  a good deal, a great floor plan, a nice lot, and no surprises.

When many foreign buyers look at our prices and values I believe that they inwardly, secretly chuckle at how cheap our prices are and how large our lots are.

The best thing to do is look at a map – maps are my favorite tool!

Here’s one view of the flow of “Euro Buyers” into the US, courtesy of Trulia.com

One thing to think about – the three largest home sales EVER in America were all to . . .  foreign buyers.  This is one, in California.  It sold for $100,000,000.  To a Russian.

I talked to a friend of mine who knows the Russian speaking Realtor who wrote the contract for Yuri Milner, the Google/Hedge Fund type investor.  I think that he was sad – he will never, ever in all of his career close on a deal that large again.  Must be sad to realize that!

But I was thinking about what was hard to do in Perrysburg real estate in 2011.  

So, I will try to “put lipstick on a pig” and share my problems with you in a positive and affirming manner!  

1. Getting or giving an accurate “quick sale value” was very hard to do in 2011.  In Perrysburg.  In Toledo.  The market was shifting and that made the guessing game of providing quick sale numbers very hard (you don’t want to know and you don’t ever want to need a “quick sale valuation” for your house!)

2. Real estate team management was hard.  My team?  Shifted.  One long time assistant retired.  One decided to, rather sensibly, take care of newborn twin boys!  And one just vanished!  New hires and new licensed team additions have made my team larger than ever.

3. Seeing people you sold a house to . . . . lose it to the bank.  Very, very hard.

4. Watch mold grow in great houses – very hard.  Sometimes the rules and regulations conspire to make a house sit in the shadow inventory of foreclosure-land.  And then bad things can happen.  It’s a dirty rotten shame.

5. Managing growth and the new market.   My team and I have never, ever sold more homes for more money.  And I have added several new lead systems.  Which has added a couple of thousand leads to manage.  Very hard.  

6. Telling buyer clients to be careful.  Just because rates are very, very low does not mean that you should spend all your income on that special house.  Not many people like to hear “no”.

7. Manage real estate deals.  Very, very hard.   Every part of every deal has changed in the past 4 years.  Financial rules.  Appraisal rules.  Valuation rules.  Stress levels are high.  Equity is low.  Jobs are under pressure if you are being transferred in or out.  When I have a “happy” closing – with neither the seller or the buyer under duress or stress or distress?  That’s actually notable today.

8. Telling the truth to sellers about the current and accurate value of their home.  Well . . . not hard.  But sometimes painful.  Or distressing.  But it has to be done.

9. Keeping up with the literature.   Never, ever been harder.  I maintain a few “professional designations” for my real estate career.  It’s a little inside industry inside real estate sales and management.  I have the ABR degree.  The CRP degree.  The CRS. The CDPE designation.  About 8 or 10 of them.  And they all take up biannual or triennial accreditation.  Plus my Ohio real estate broker’s license continuing education.  Plus the various real estate and sales and marketing books I love to read.  Too much in 2011.  For the first time ever I have not yet bought or even perused my favorite authors newest book – Seth Godin’s “We Are All Weird”

10. The iPad.  Love it.  Use it every day for real estate and reading (I did get tired of my dear wife hinting at me to “put that iPad down” . . . so I very cleverly bought her one!).  But it’s been a struggle to get forms and contract on it to work right.  Maybe my software engineer son can “make an app” for that in 2012.

I sell houses.  And I have been blessed to sell a lot of houses in 2011.  More, in fact, than any other Realtor in this market.

And I have sold some amazing mansions this year.  And some houses that should have been torn down.

But they all sell – at some point.  Given enough time and the right effort.

Many sellers/homeowners ask me “what can we do to get our house sold”?

Clutter matters.  Decluttering can help sell us sell your house.

Condition matters.   Fixing your houses’ problems can help us sell your house.

Location matters.  So . . . picking up or repairing your neighbors problems can help us sell your house.

And marketing matters.  Getting the word out about your house to the most potential buyers and then actually answering their inquiries really matters in selling your home.

But – in THIS market – the number one determining factor in selling your house is price.

Price can fix everything in selling your house.

It fixes clutter.

It fixes your bad basement.

It fixes your neighbors messed up garage and yard and gutters and weeds.

It fixes your current Realtors’ utter lack of marketing and salesmanship — like the house in Perrysburg without a for sale sign that I wrote an offer on this week (whose out of town owner has NO idea what her agent is up to . . .) to the listings with recorders and voice mail that “answer” every call that buyers make.

Price fixes ALL of those sins.

With mortgages at amazing levels . . .

With prices in Perrysburg leveling off . . .

With buyers always looking – even this Winter – for good listings to buy . . .

Pricing can fix your home.

Just one thought – work on the other factors first!

They are much cheaper and will put more money in your wallet.

I say “yes”.

I told a couple of my friends/acquaintances who were/are 0n Perrysburg City Council a couple of years ago to be ready.  READY FOR THIS:

To plan now on having less tax revenue on hand.

The Cleveland branch of the Federal Reserve Bank has an opinion: it’s here.

I have made many crazy real estate predictions:

A. Houses are going to get smaller.

B. Brokerages are going to radically change.

C. Agents are going to go mobile and untethered.

D. The internet is going to rule real estate advertising.

E. Shag carpeting is coming back in style.

Most of them have come true!  Well, except for the carpeting one.

But the prediction on municipal revenue is very difficult to accept.  What if the Lucas County lost 25% or 35% of it’s tax base?

What if Wood County lost 20%?  What will happen to city services and infrastructure and jobs and pensions if 50% of our tax base melts away (travel to Detroit or Flint for a view of the future . . .)

Think I am being alarmist?  Read what they are saying in Rhode Island.

Hard choices result.  Put them off . . . . and your entire city can be destroyed (see Detroit, above, which is heading for total financial meltdown with state control of it’s entire budget).

If you add in the effects of the decline in valuation and the imputed number of properties NOT paying any property tax at all in Lucas County . . . it’s a huge problem.

Tax increases are not going to work – no one will vote for them to pass and if you target businesses instead of people, they and their jobs/employees will simply decamp for Tennessee or Indiana (or Mexic0 or China).

In Wood County the property tax provides about 20% of the county’s income/revenue.   And the 2009 tax valuations are fractionally lower than the 2005 total valuation.  2005 was the last of the “boom years”.   I think that the county numbers are going to adjust down – by 20%.    The residential component is 70% of the total – so even record setting farmland prices won’t help when valuations are “normalized to the market”.

From the City of Perrysburg’s point of view it’s not that bad – real estate taxes make up about 10% of the city’s revenue.   So it’s not catastrophic.   The hit comes when the county/state feels the pain and starts squeezing the municipalities.

It’s started – and it’s going to get worse.

Caveat Emptor?  It’s the Latin rendering of “let the buyer beware”.

Because buyers need to beware.   At least in Ohio they do!  A quick Google.com scan shows thousands of entries for “caveat emptor” in Ohio real estate.   It shields the real estate seller.  It protects the real estate agent.  It immunizes the real estate broker.  A good example, from a Realtor trade rag is here.

I had to put a house on the market that made this very painfully real.

The “buyers”, who shall remain nameless, simply relied on what the “seller” told them.   They trusted.  But did not verify.

Big mistake.

The “seller”?  He did not have real title to the property.  It was not his to sell.   There was a bank somewhere – not getting paid.   The “buyers” gave their rather sizable down payment to this Perrysburg-based con artist.   Their “down payment”?   Gone.  Scammed.   Stolen.

They were buyers – and they were not careful.

The damage to them – emotionally, financially, and more was and is terrible.

The seller/agent was neither a real seller or a real real estate agent.

Nothing was as it seemed.

I would trust . . . but then verify:

1. Who are you?

2. Why are we not using a title agency?

3. You allright with my lawyer looking at this?

4. Why isn’t your deed recorded?

5. Why don’t you have an office?

Just a few things to consider and learn to ask so that you can avoid some of the scams that are being done right now on innocent, trusting, unaware buyers!