Perrysburg Blog

Advice I am giving to potential sellers:  don’t sell unless you really need to.

Advice I am giving to sellers that really need to:  make sure you really need to sell.

Advice I am giving to sellers that are sure that they really need to sell: there are too many houses for sale given the buyer activity we have right now – let’s find out how we can work together to sell your house in this environment.

The WSJ has an interesting missive out today - about the glut of houses on the market.

Interesting reading:

“Pending sales, signed contracts on the purchase of new homes tracked by the National Association of Realtors, were down 3% in June compared to May. That month saw a 30% drop in the index, after the April 30 expiration of the home buyer’s tax credit.

The pending sales numbers point to more alarming home sales figures, wrote Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim in a note Tuesday. Mr. Oppenheim said that given the sales pace, we’re on track to sell 3.7 million homes total this year–-the lowest seasonally adjusted level of single-family existing home sales since the fall of 1996.”

I read elsewhere that a major US builder does not want anymore tax credits or Federal home buyer stimulus.  “Just let the market work” was their plea.

The housing market is tough right now – investors from out of state are buying 100 to 400 houses in a single auction.  You want to compete against that?  In Toledo? “Gird your loins” as they say.

In Perrysburg we are not at that point (and never will be . . . !) but the dynamic pressures just to the north of us still impact this market.   When housing values plummet close by it hurts us.

Great listings are still in demand.

Great buyers are still coming to PBurg.

Enjoy the Glut if you can!

Macro?

Big.

A simple chart of “big numbers” that covers the whole US economy.

Perrysburg area homes would be included . . . as a tiny little subset of these big, macro numbers.

While these are national numbers . . . they are not good.

By some measures almost 1 out of every 4 new loans is headed for a future default.

This is simply unsustainable.   On many levels.   We will run out of solvent buyers.  We will run out of solvent banks.  And the capacity of the enormous American economy to absorb so much expense and bad debt will run out at some future, unknown point.

Don’t ask me for a prescription for today’s market to get better.

You won’t like it.

But I would remind you about my grandfather, Gilmer Moden, bought his first house in Albert Lea Minnesota.   When he bought his first house, he worked and saved and worked and saved and then put 25% down before the local bank, whose manager and bank president knew him, loaned him the difference.

The idea that in a declining market people can and should be buying homes with nothing down is a fallacy.  It will not work.  Someone is not helping people own homes, but rather helping them take huge bets on the velocity and direction of the housing market with other people’s money.

They need the work.

They are hungry.

They can be there 24/7 for you . . .

There are so many reasons to hire the financially destitute Realtor.  It’s just that none of them accrue to your benefit.

And, seriously, there is just a little bit of downside risk.

From my observations this week, talking to dissatisfied former clients of broke Realtors, and Realtors who are unable to sell real estate today:

A. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to be there.  They are not going to return your call.  Or have staff and support to do so.   You are going to be on your own.

B.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to invest much money in marketing your house.  They don’t have any money to invest.  And if they did they need it for themselves and their survival.

C.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is going to be distracted.   Seriously distracted.  With a new job.  With court problems.   With other career issues.   Think that won’t hurt the sale and marketing of your listing?  Sure.

D.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the best and most up to date technology and software.   No office to take an interested potential buyer to.   No color printer to make brochures for you with.  No scanner to digitize paperwork with.   No wide angle lens for the camera that makes your home more attractive on line.  No . . . you get the picture.

E. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to do the right thing when they should.  They may be desperate.  And the blood of desperation in the pool with your equity is not a good mixture.

F.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the judgment needed to effectively protect you from scams and scammers.  They will instead try to sell you on uplines, travel deals, pills and potions, and magic software that will help you pay off your mortgage early (for an investment of $3000 up front for the magic program).

Help yourself . . . if you feel sorry for a broken real estate agent, give them a donation.  Don’t donate your home’s value.

I’ve already sold 10 houses this week.

My Team and I are hungry for more.

Some random thoughts on the Perrysburg real estate market:

• It’s encouraging to see a lot of buyer activity.  Just had one house get NINE simultaneous offers.  Nine.  Never have seen that before . . . not in 22 years of selling here.
• It’s sad to see Toledo continue to implode.   Good job there Mayor Bell!  The people leaving Toledo are heading for . . . . Perrysburg.
• It will be fascinating to see what happens to our market when the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit expires. Buyers must be “under contract” by April 30^th and close by June 30^th to get the credit.
• The upfront FHA mortgage insurance premium will rise from 1.75% to 2.25% on April 5^th. This will result in an extra $1,000 of buyer closing costs on a $200,000 loan.
• Not a very smart move by Perrysburg Schools to get rid of music, sports, etc.  In case you have never heard this before – but one BIG reason people move to Perrysburg and pay the “Perrysburg Premium” is the draw of the schools.   Mess with that at your peril.  Property values will go down.  Then your tax base will pay you less.   You might want to rethink that plan.
• It’s positive to see people buying homes for the right reason (to live in them!) instead of speculating on them and using them as their personal ATM.  It didn’t take long for people to learn and entire mindscapes to change.
• The foreclosure wave continues unabated.  No matter what you read.
• Static analysis of big political decisions is not working.  Case in point – the new health care bill.  It’s actually causing big employers to push thousands of people into government paid drug plans eliminating the supposed tax revenue from one little codicil in the big bill – and that little change was supposed to raise money for Uncle Sam.  Now . . . imagine if we pass a law that allows people to not pay their mortgage or to renegotiate their loan balance?  Think they just might be some unexpected consequences?  Some dynamic market-driven financial human responses?
• Finally:  This is why banks should endeavor to do “cash for keys” or short sales.   A little picture from one of the three houses I had to go and secure for 3 different banks today:

“I am an out of town owner, and I want to rent my 4000 sq. foot, river front mansion in Perrysburg.  I will sign a 12 month lease for $299 per month.   I need a deposit of $2000.  Email me back on Craigslist or call 419-260-XXXX!”

Hmm.

Too good to be true?

Yes.  It is.

People are actually out there purporting to rent houses THEY DON’T REALLY OWN.

There have NEVER been more vacant houses in Perrysburg than there are today.

This weekend I had to check on 2 new assigned assets for a bank.  Both in Perrysburg.  Both long vacant.

It is neither hard to find them or to pretend to own/control/rent them.

Here is how they do it – and what it costs.

1.  Get a prepaid cell phone.  Use a false ID.  $120

2.  Find an empty house.  $0

3.  Jimmy the lock – put your own on.  $25

4.  Place a bogus Craigslist ad – $0

5.  Make the “deal” so good . . . that you have multiple takers.

6. Spend one day collecting the rental deposits.

7.  Vanish.

This is happening in many other markets – here is a report from San Diego.

I have experienced versions of this scam in Toledo with foreclosed houses.   But . . . it’s just a matter of time in Perrysburg.

Do not “leave the money on the table”.

Don’t rent from a person who is offering something too good to be true.

Don’t trust anyone who does not have a legitimate business presence in the area.

Verify the actual ownership of the property you want to rent – the Wood County Auditor is free!

Which is now a very valid and pertinent question . . . since the town’s biggest builder just recently closed up shop.

And the current level of new construction activity is, oh, about 10% of what it was a few years ago.

Suddenly, getting a nice, neat, clean, modern new(er) house is actually harder . . . but still, if you are transferring into Perrysburg/Northwest Ohio, just as important and vital.

IMO, Perrysburg continues to be the number 1 choice for incoming corporate moves – but whereas in the past I could show such a transferee 10 or 20 new homes from a diverse number of builders – that is simply not possible today.

But – do not despair Mr. and Mrs. Transferee.

We have houses like 780 Little Creek.

Subdivision still open – Forester/Wherle still building and active but only with contract in hand, no more specs/models . . .

Modern, 2 story, center hall design.

Clean.  Livable.  Not beat up.

No glaring design flaws.

Owners have upgraded with a professional build quality finished basement.  They have updated/upgraded the F/W flooring with tile/ceramic/new berber as needed.

They have upgraded the standard level F/W appliances with some new, bright stainless ones.

And, they have even fenced the yard, built a deck, and added a hot tub.

No need to write a building contract and live in a hotel for 5 months . . . this house is ready.

And it is not unique.  There are several similar like it on the market at any given time.

So the move into town from Chicago or Pittsburgh or Dayton, etc. need not be filled with disquiet at the current lack of new builds.

$189,900 as of this date – it is SHARP!

One of my favorite real estate writers posed a similar query in the Wall Street Journal’s excellent real estate blog – Developments.

James Hagerty posed the question: “Will the bank take my iPhone?”

Which is sobering – I have an iPhone.  You can’t have it.  You can’t take it.  It’s addictive and it’s mine . . . and I have a hard time imagining it being surrendered to a creditor.

Which made me do some thinking.

And then some investigation.

Since I deal with many homeowners today who owe the bank MORE than the market value – what can happen to their iPhones?

And their cars?

And their retirement savings?

And their other assets and possessions?

5 or so years ago this was a pointless, absurd question.

It just did not happen in Perrysburg.

Today – it’s a vital, important, timely question.

According to the Fed (specifically the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond VA) in their monolithic report “Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default:  Theory and Evidence form U.S. States) Ohio is considered a “recourse” state.

That means that lenders may have MORE remedies against a defaulting homeowner than just taking the house back in a foreclosure.

(N.B. – for this entire post, please remember that I am not an attorney and you should and are highly recommended to hire your own attorney to answer your questions!  You need a good, honest attorney . . . call me, and I will recommend one to you)

If I am a defaulting homeowner, I do not like “recourse”.

What is interesting about the lenders right of recourse in our state is that only in Ohio and Iowa does the lender have a very short period to seek recourse – and in Ohio, and thus Perrysburg, it is only for 2 years after the foreclosure.

Y0u can download their 50+ page paper yourself and read the gory details.  The financial equations on page 10 caused me to have a regression attack and revisit my finance classes at Duke University.   I was so shook up by this I had to go out and sell 5 houses today – but that’s another story . . .

2 years.

That is the time frame for recourse that your bank has to get more coins from you.

Lose your house to the bank . . . and they get an automatic deficiency judgment against you.

But they only have 2 years to collect it.

And many banks are taking 12 months to return phone calls right now – so what are the odds they will get your iPhone?

This recourse is usually obviated when a short sale is negotiated – which reinforces my belief that 2010 and 2011 will be the year of the Short Sale in and around Perrysburg.

Because then you will get to keep your iPhone.

A empty shell.

Crabs like them.

But they are terrible for helping homeowners to pay their mortgage.

And if you drive along Alt20 – aka Illinois Ave. in Maumee, you will see a lot of empty shells.

And “FOR LEASE” signs.

And vacant factories, offices, and businesses.

It’s a vivid reminder of what has happened and what has helped residential real estate to collapse in value.

The collateral damage from this one street’s empty and shuttered businesses and factories is felt in every subdivision in Perrysburg.  I know clients that have lost jobs in Crandenbrook and other Perrysburg neighborhoods who used to work on this street.

But now their jobs are gone.

You want reports of the economy getting better?  You want to know when the residential market is better?  You better go for a drive . . .

You might be – because someone forgot to trademark it.

Now it is too late!   REALTORS know that the acronym MLS stands for “Multiple Listing Service”.  It’s our shared listing database wherein the local Realtors cooperate and compensate each other for helping to sell listings.

But . . . some people who play soccer use it too!

So I will make things easy.

At least on THIS blog.

I write exclusively on real estate in Perrysburg.

And local people and places that effect and influence said real estate.

But up until this week, if you wanted to look for actual houses for sale, you had to go off my site to one of many “listing” sites.  (N.B. I still recommend OnlyPerrysburg.com or MLSToledo.com)

However, if you look at the far left column of this blog – right there over on the lower left – you will see a “live feed” from the local MLS.

I have set it up so that it is only houses in Perrysburg, with the newest listings added today on top, going down in chronological order.

Only listings in the 43551.

Only active, for sale, listings.

And only here . . . . on PerrysburgBlog.com