Perrysburg Blog

“I am an out of town owner, and I want to rent my 4000 sq. foot, river front mansion in Perrysburg.  I will sign a 12 month lease for $299 per month.   I need a deposit of $2000.  Email me back on Craigslist or call 419-260-XXXX!”

Hmm.

Too good to be true?

Yes.  It is.

People are actually out there purporting to rent houses THEY DON’T REALLY OWN.

There have NEVER been more vacant houses in Perrysburg than there are today.

This weekend I had to check on 2 new assigned assets for a bank.  Both in Perrysburg.  Both long vacant.

It is neither hard to find them or to pretend to own/control/rent them.

Here is how they do it – and what it costs.

1.  Get a prepaid cell phone.  Use a false ID.  $120

2.  Find an empty house.  $0

3.  Jimmy the lock – put your own on.  $25

4.  Place a bogus Craigslist ad – $0

5.  Make the “deal” so good . . . that you have multiple takers.

6. Spend one day collecting the rental deposits.

7.  Vanish.

This is happening in many other markets – here is a report from San Diego.

I have experienced versions of this scam in Toledo with foreclosed houses.   But . . . it’s just a matter of time in Perrysburg.

Do not “leave the money on the table”.

Don’t rent from a person who is offering something too good to be true.

Don’t trust anyone who does not have a legitimate business presence in the area.

Verify the actual ownership of the property you want to rent – the Wood County Auditor is free!

Which is now a very valid and pertinent question . . . since the town’s biggest builder just recently closed up shop.

And the current level of new construction activity is, oh, about 10% of what it was a few years ago.

Suddenly, getting a nice, neat, clean, modern new(er) house is actually harder . . . but still, if you are transferring into Perrysburg/Northwest Ohio, just as important and vital.

IMO, Perrysburg continues to be the number 1 choice for incoming corporate moves – but whereas in the past I could show such a transferee 10 or 20 new homes from a diverse number of builders – that is simply not possible today.

But – do not despair Mr. and Mrs. Transferee.

We have houses like 780 Little Creek.

Subdivision still open – Forester/Wherle still building and active but only with contract in hand, no more specs/models . . .

Modern, 2 story, center hall design.

Clean.  Livable.  Not beat up.

No glaring design flaws.

Owners have upgraded with a professional build quality finished basement.  They have updated/upgraded the F/W flooring with tile/ceramic/new berber as needed.

They have upgraded the standard level F/W appliances with some new, bright stainless ones.

And, they have even fenced the yard, built a deck, and added a hot tub.

No need to write a building contract and live in a hotel for 5 months . . . this house is ready.

And it is not unique.  There are several similar like it on the market at any given time.

So the move into town from Chicago or Pittsburgh or Dayton, etc. need not be filled with disquiet at the current lack of new builds.

$189,900 as of this date – it is SHARP!

One of my favorite real estate writers posed a similar query in the Wall Street Journal’s excellent real estate blog – Developments.

James Hagerty posed the question: “Will the bank take my iPhone?”

Which is sobering – I have an iPhone.  You can’t have it.  You can’t take it.  It’s addictive and it’s mine . . . and I have a hard time imagining it being surrendered to a creditor.

Which made me do some thinking.

And then some investigation.

Since I deal with many homeowners today who owe the bank MORE than the market value – what can happen to their iPhones?

And their cars?

And their retirement savings?

And their other assets and possessions?

5 or so years ago this was a pointless, absurd question.

It just did not happen in Perrysburg.

Today – it’s a vital, important, timely question.

According to the Fed (specifically the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond VA) in their monolithic report “Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default:  Theory and Evidence form U.S. States) Ohio is considered a “recourse” state.

That means that lenders may have MORE remedies against a defaulting homeowner than just taking the house back in a foreclosure.

(N.B. – for this entire post, please remember that I am not an attorney and you should and are highly recommended to hire your own attorney to answer your questions!  You need a good, honest attorney . . . call me, and I will recommend one to you)

If I am a defaulting homeowner, I do not like “recourse”.

What is interesting about the lenders right of recourse in our state is that only in Ohio and Iowa does the lender have a very short period to seek recourse – and in Ohio, and thus Perrysburg, it is only for 2 years after the foreclosure.

Y0u can download their 50+ page paper yourself and read the gory details.  The financial equations on page 10 caused me to have a regression attack and revisit my finance classes at Duke University.   I was so shook up by this I had to go out and sell 5 houses today – but that’s another story . . .

2 years.

That is the time frame for recourse that your bank has to get more coins from you.

Lose your house to the bank . . . and they get an automatic deficiency judgment against you.

But they only have 2 years to collect it.

And many banks are taking 12 months to return phone calls right now – so what are the odds they will get your iPhone?

This recourse is usually obviated when a short sale is negotiated – which reinforces my belief that 2010 and 2011 will be the year of the Short Sale in and around Perrysburg.

Because then you will get to keep your iPhone.

A empty shell.

Crabs like them.

But they are terrible for helping homeowners to pay their mortgage.

And if you drive along Alt20 – aka Illinois Ave. in Maumee, you will see a lot of empty shells.

And “FOR LEASE” signs.

And vacant factories, offices, and businesses.

It’s a vivid reminder of what has happened and what has helped residential real estate to collapse in value.

The collateral damage from this one street’s empty and shuttered businesses and factories is felt in every subdivision in Perrysburg.  I know clients that have lost jobs in Crandenbrook and other Perrysburg neighborhoods who used to work on this street.

But now their jobs are gone.

You want reports of the economy getting better?  You want to know when the residential market is better?  You better go for a drive . . .

You might be – because someone forgot to trademark it.

Now it is too late!   REALTORS know that the acronym MLS stands for “Multiple Listing Service”.  It’s our shared listing database wherein the local Realtors cooperate and compensate each other for helping to sell listings.

But . . . some people who play soccer use it too!

So I will make things easy.

At least on THIS blog.

I write exclusively on real estate in Perrysburg.

And local people and places that effect and influence said real estate.

But up until this week, if you wanted to look for actual houses for sale, you had to go off my site to one of many “listing” sites.  (N.B. I still recommend OnlyPerrysburg.com or MLSToledo.com)

However, if you look at the far left column of this blog – right there over on the lower left – you will see a “live feed” from the local MLS.

I have set it up so that it is only houses in Perrysburg, with the newest listings added today on top, going down in chronological order.

Only listings in the 43551.

Only active, for sale, listings.

And only here . . . . on PerrysburgBlog.com

Do you see it?

Not many do.

I will share with you my current take on the Perrysburg/Northwest Ohio real estate market.

First – there are TWO markets.   Not surprisingly you may have already figured this out.  There is the REO/Bank Foreclosure market.  And then there is everybody else.

Two markets – in the same market space.

Competing with each other.  Interacting with each other.  Together making up one single market.

I believe that every single buyer and seller has to understand this in all its’ implications.

Second:  There is a giant elephant standing the corner of the Perrysburg market.

Many agents are willfully blind.  Many sellers are deluded.  Many people don’t want to talk about him.

But I will.

That giant elephant in the corner?  He is representing the lack of “move up” buyers in the current Northwest Ohio real estate market.

Move up buyers?  They have been Perrysburgs’ bread and butter.  People “move up” out of their Toledo/Sylvania/Maumee/Point Place home to a larger, better, more expensive house in Perrysburg.

These move up buyers made our market work.   They bought the $189,900 house.  The $320,000 house.  The $499,900 house.

Now we have a market in NWO full of first time buyers ($8000 tax credit) and full of investors (Heh!  This is better than my stocks!).     This dearth of move up buyers is NOT unique to Perrysburg – see this story.

I talk to many homeowners today – they CANNOT afford to sell and move up.

I can also report, in an anecdotal manner, of buyers who buy who tell me that this is their last house.  They plan on being buried in the yard of their home!   A mental shift has occurred-  houses in Perrysburg are no longer investments, or financial stepping stones on the upward path to The Sanctuary.  No – they are hard-nosed financial purchases that have to work in a families budget.

The upshot – the lack of move up buyers is felt especially hard in Perrysburg and other former “move up” suburbs (Sylvania, Monclova, et all)  and shows no signs of abating.

People who bought at the peak of the market have no reason to sell now and then “lock in” their paper losses.

People who bought and have mortgage problems?  They can’t move up.

Seniors and older buyers?  They are not buying up – they are buying down.

First time buyers?  They ARE buying in Perrysburg, but not in the traditional move up price ranges.

If you have a “McMansion” that you HAVE to sell – I can sell it.  It is salable.  But the price will have to be compelling to attract buyers.

I have sold close to 40 homes in the past 60 days – the highest number in my career.   But that is because I and my team are pricing to today’s market.

I get asked “how is the market” all the time.

In fact, if I had a nickel . . . .

But HOW IS the market?

That is the wrong question.  Really.

I will tell you how our current Perrysburg real estate market is.

The banks?  Lending.  They have money.

Interest rates?  Are you kidding!?  Best in history.

Inventory?  Plenty of homes to choose from – but not way too many as 2 years ago.

The secret to figuring out how the market is . . . . is knowing how local employment is.

JOBS.

How is the jobs market?  That will answer the real estate question.

If we have MORE jobs – we sell more homes and house prices rise.

If we have MORE layoffs and firings – we have more depressed home owners and more depressed demand and more declining values.

The local economy is hemorrhaging jobs.  The red above shows where it hurts – it’s a static photo here, so don’t try to make it work!

When that stops the real estate market will improve.

No government program, no mandated plan for mortgage cram downs, none of that will work.  Or help.  In fact they all make the local housing market worse.  Because they cost jobs.

Do you remember the old Toledo version of the board game Triopoly?  (You probably do not – it has even lost its Wikipedia page . . .)

It was a Monopoly like clone game with big local companies “advertising” by buying the right to be a property/company on the board.   It came out back in the 1970’s.

Well, I no longer have my copy of Triopoly.  But I remember some of the “big, local companies” that were on it.

And they are gone.

Toledo, which used to boast 10 or so members of the Fortune 500 being headquartered here . . . we have lost our job/manufacturing base. (Sheller-Globe, AutoLite, Champion, Toledo Scale, and many more . . . brownfields, empty buildings, or worse now)

When it comes back – then the housing market will come back and real housing values will increase.

Most people know that Perrysburg prices have dropped (a few Realtors surprisingly have not gotten that memo – but I don’t want to be snarky . . .)

But what of taxes?

Property taxes should be coming down too, n’est pas?

I do not believe that the County automatically adjusts taxes down.   They must have missed that memo too!

So what can I do to find out the history of taxes.  Not that hard if you have a record of old MLS comparable sales . . . and here is what we find:

We find that property taxes in Perrysburg have relentlessly increased.

The 3 bed, 1.5 bath house in the Southwood Park subdivision of Perrysburg would cost you $393 in 1/2 year taxes back in 1984.

In 1994 that same house would cost the owner $557.

In 2004 your 1/2 tax bill would have been $1076.

Today?  You are may be looking at almost $1400 per 1/2 year for a 3 bed, 1.5 bath in Southwood Park (Edgewood, Southwood, etc. by the big blue city water tower for those who do not think in terms of subdivisions like I do!) (Caveat: Not everyone pays the same tax amount for the same home – it depends when you were last assessed/appraised by the County, how accurate your assessment is, and if you have recently filed for a reappraisal).

$393 to $1400.   I think that is an increase.

But – property values have declined in 2006, 2007, 2008 and this year.

I wonder if property taxes have gone down since 2007?

What is your experience?

Enjoy your tea!

You know, stats / statistics are dangerous things.

Easily manipulated.

Slice the data in the time frame/price range/criteria you want . . . and you can make it say “BLUE”.  Do it in the way I want and I can make the same data say “RED”.

Very dangerous.  Deceptive.  At least that’s what my statistics teacher at Duke told us before he taught!

N.A.R.  (the National Association of REALTORS) comes out with some stats.   Sales are UP in the past month!!!  Yeah!!!

But comparing one month against another . . .

When you know that the current months’ “bump” is solely due to depressed REO assets selling . . .

When many local markets are cratering . . .

Highly dubious.  Almost deceptive.  Even though technically true.

But what of the big, national statistical picture?   Can we look at ALL the numbers?  What will that tell us????

Here is the picture:

National numbers are both up 4.7% but they are also down by 41.1% over the past year.

There is no honest way to say that sales are up.

The days of a million or 1.2 million homes selling per year in the USA?  Gone.  For a long time.

Pricing and your homes’ pricing strategy are all important in this market.

In Perrysburg and everywhere else apparently.

Homes for Sale

• Listed Homes Active:  3
• Vacant Listings: 0
• Average Asking Price: $278,145
• Offering Bonus Commission:  0
• Offering Reduced Selling Agent Commission: 3
• Price Reductions: 2
• Short Sale: 0
• Months Supply: 7 (MLS Area 53 MSI

Pending Sales

• Listings Pending Closing:  0

Sold Past 6 Months

• Closed Sales:  7
• Average Sales Price: $257,303
• Lowest Sales Price: $148,600 (Plat 1)
• Highest Sales Price: $317,525