Perrysburg Blog

The sky is a little brighter this week.

The sun has been shining more in Perrysburg.

And there are lots more accepted offers and buyer offer writing action in play.

Even though things could change.

And even though national indices are split – with sales down and values up.

It’s a confusing market.

But . . . “all real estate is local”.

So here is my take on the recent spate of action in the 43551:

Affordability

• Affordability is at its highest level in the past several decades.
• Many Perrysburg homes now cost 30-40% less than they did 6 or 7 years ago.

Pent-Up Demand

• Many of today’s buyers need to buy because their families have grown, they just moved here, they got a promotion or a raise, and other valid reasons.
• Sellers who hung on during our real estate decline have paid down debt (including mortgage debt), saved their money, and are now ready to move up.

Low Interest Rates

• Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remain below 4% and rates for 15-year mortgages are even less.
• Buyers are realizing that these rates are certain to rise if our national economy regains it footing.

Buyers Believe There’s Little Downside

• Buyers who were previously afraid they would lose money if they bought a home are now realizing that the risk is reduced and that they have waited long enough.
• Prices in the Perrysburg real estate market have stabilized in most segments of the market.
• The grim bloodletting in the suburbs is almost over – with values rationalized and the flight to safety of steadier values in the periphery of Toledo increasing values.

Cheaper To Own Than Rent

• It used to be cheaper to rent than own a home, but that has changed.
• Rents are soaring and now exceed the cost of home ownership in many instances.
• Given a choice, most renters would rather own their own home than pay off their landlord’s mortgage with their rent payments.

A good question – and one that really matters to sellers/owners in Perrysburg.

Lot’s of people (for example the National Association of REALTORS . . . who charges a lot for the info).

But my observations for June/July 2011 in Perrysburg are as follows:

1. People who are moving here.   Transferees.   Lots of them.

2. People who live around here and want to be closer to jobs and get the excellent Perrysburg Schools.

3. People who live here and have sold their house but want lower taxes than where they were (Ottawa Hills and Sylvania).

4. People who live here and are buying houses for their kids.  Seriously.   Doing a lot of this right now.

5. People who were renting here and want to buy into our market.

I am certain there are lots of buyers and buyer stories.

Many people buying in Perrysburg are first time buyers.  They are going to use FHA financing.  They are going to want the seller to help.  So you mentally have to be ready to “help”.    Investors?  Many are prowling in Perrysburg right now.  They often pay cash.  And they don’t care what it “was worth” or what it “sold for before”.  They are buying strictly for cash flow.

These are the predominate ones that my team and I are helping right now.

You want to sell?   You need to think about who is buying and make sure your home/real estate fits the bill.

Which I do from time to time.

Like today.   I just listed 3 homes in Toledo.   1 in Elmore.  1 in Oak Harbour.  And 2 in Perrysburg.

One in Perrysburg is on Eckel Junction – just down the road from where I used to own a house.  So . . . I know the neighborhood quite well.

You can walk over to Rivercrest Park – with or without the kids.  With or without the dog – but he ALWAYS wanted to go because there are always a lot of little and big dogs to sniff and or wag your tail at.    There are ball games going on.   The Y is right down the street.   And, of course, your kids can walk or ride to Ft. Meigs Elementary.

So it’s a pretty nice area to live in.

This house?  One owner.  Center-hall floor plan.  3 car garage.  And these are all very good features.   It feels “big” and has 2 laundry rooms – one up and one down.  The basement is finished too.

$280′s.   With a, did I mention it already . . . 3 car garage.

It is in true mint condition.

They need the work.

They are hungry.

They can be there 24/7 for you . . .

There are so many reasons to hire the financially destitute Realtor.  It’s just that none of them accrue to your benefit.

And, seriously, there is just a little bit of downside risk.

From my observations this week, talking to dissatisfied former clients of broke Realtors, and Realtors who are unable to sell real estate today:

A. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to be there.  They are not going to return your call.  Or have staff and support to do so.   You are going to be on your own.

B.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to invest much money in marketing your house.  They don’t have any money to invest.  And if they did they need it for themselves and their survival.

C.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is going to be distracted.   Seriously distracted.  With a new job.  With court problems.   With other career issues.   Think that won’t hurt the sale and marketing of your listing?  Sure.

D.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the best and most up to date technology and software.   No office to take an interested potential buyer to.   No color printer to make brochures for you with.  No scanner to digitize paperwork with.   No wide angle lens for the camera that makes your home more attractive on line.  No . . . you get the picture.

E. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to do the right thing when they should.  They may be desperate.  And the blood of desperation in the pool with your equity is not a good mixture.

F.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the judgment needed to effectively protect you from scams and scammers.  They will instead try to sell you on uplines, travel deals, pills and potions, and magic software that will help you pay off your mortgage early (for an investment of $3000 up front for the magic program).

Help yourself . . . if you feel sorry for a broken real estate agent, give them a donation.  Don’t donate your home’s value.

Yes?

Right?

Isn’t that the new word on the street.

Well, let’s dive into some of the data.

I have postulated all along, at least if you have read my blog, that the current and expanded Federal House Buying Tax Credit Stimulus Boondoggle (aka FHBTCSB) will do nothing to improve the position of sellers/homeowners today, and will hurt future sales, deform demand, mask market effects, and  . . . . in the process help to saddle our kids with debt and further bankrupt our nation.

Some have just written that Perrysburg real estate is looking up – booming in fact.

Let’s see:

Here is 2 years of MLS market data.

Let’s just look at November 2009 vs. November 2oo8.  ONLY Perrysburg single family homes.

November 08 – 340 houses for sale.   21 houses placed under contract.  20 houses closed.  Median asking price $204,900.  Median price of listings that went into contract $179,900.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2008 was $242,950.

Now let’s look at the loosey-goosey tax credit fueled, rebounding market in November of 2009:

November 09 – Only 241 houses for sale.   22 houses placed under contract.  27 houses closed.  Median asking price $220,000.  Median price of listings that went into contract $187,450.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2009 was $212,950.

Fewer for sale.

Only 1 more house “pending”.

7 more deals closed.

But … the houses are selling for $30,000 less on average.

Hello?

This is helping?   This is great program?  And the money to pay it . . . has yet to be repaid with interest?

I will note in passing that the average price per square foot has dropped from $99 to $91.

Now – the caveats.  This is a month vs. month snap shot.  The economy is different.   The numbers we are comparing are small.  The trend is more important than a slice of monthly data.

But a rebound?

A better market?

Improved prices and more equity?

Insane.

It’s not happening.

And it won’t until the jobs/employment situation is FIXED.

Bad news follows bad news. (GM is gone, FIAT buys Jeep!, and rates are up).

Followed by more bad news.

What can a motivated seller do?

I had meetings today with many potential clients.

And they all asked me “THE QUESTION”.

(Well, actually it is one of two “The Questions” that you always hear as a Realtor, the other one being “How Long Will It Take To Sell My Home.”  That is the OTHER “the question”.)

What was “THE QUESTION”?

Here it is: “When Will The Market Turn Around?”

That is THE question of day and the hour and the year.

When?

Since I approach my work from a consultative, educational mindset I try to NOT dogmatically answer “THE QUESTION”.

Rather I try to help every home owner come to the right answer with some guidance.

“Why does it matter?”

“Since no one knows, and I don’t know, how does that information effect your position?”

“It might get worse if we don’t stop destroying jobs and spending our nation into oblivion!”

There is not a simple answer.

But today, in meeting with a diverse range of potential clients, I can tell you that irrespective of WHEN and IF the local market comes back, the wisest thing for any homeowner to do is to cut their spending, cut up their credit cards, cut back on their luxury purchases, and prepare and live as if the market is NEVER coming back.

Because it might, in fact, get worse.

And as I observe this nascent government – if it gets worse, they are going to subsidize buyers more, subsidize interest rates, subsidize payments, etc.

And just like they are destroying the automobile industry, they might harm the residential real estate market EVEN MORE than it has been hurt already.

One of my favorite authors/speakers is Seth Godin.

Smart.  Forward thinking.  Sold a “dot.com” he started to Yahoo.com at the very top of the market.  Now he just does what he wants.  An occasional seminar (life changing if you are interested in marketing – and I have spent a whole day with him), weird books (The Purple Cow) that always make you think, and probably whatever else he wants to do.

Confession #1:  He just had a  seminar/meeting in London that I was thinking about going to. . . . but I did not even dare ask the Wife Unit.  She would not have let me go without someone else who shall remain nameless tagging along.  Exploring the Lake District while I slaved away in a conference room.

Which right now seems to be making pithy observations about agents, agency, and the interface of agents, consumers, and technology.

Like a blog comment he wrote this week found here.

Which made me think . . . that a whole lot of the old “Perrysburg War Horse” Realtors and Brokerages are gone.

Vanished.

Moved away.

Retired.

Passed away.

Sold out or up or closed shop.

One local firm has 4 listings.  Another one 4 or 5 agents with 2 listings between all of them.

Why?   I think Seth Godin is right.   Realtors have to hyper-specialize to succeed and to thrive and to even survive.

Confession #2:  I have a very rare library of old MLS books.

A historical record of data on past, long ago sales.    Sales and data so old that they are no longer on our on-line MLS.

I use it often to save time and get old data on new listings I take.   Most times I am mentally prepared to see that of the 9 listing agents per page from the dusty old archives that almost all of them are gone.

8 out of 9.   From not that long ago.

Gone.

Godin’s right.   Specialize and provide valuable counsel or get out.

Me?  I am a Seth Godin believer.

Homes for Sale

• Listed Homes Active:  3
• Vacant Listings: 0
• Average Asking Price: $278,145
• Offering Bonus Commission:  0
• Offering Reduced Selling Agent Commission: 3
• Price Reductions: 2
• Short Sale: 0
• Months Supply: 7 (MLS Area 53 MSI

Pending Sales

• Listings Pending Closing:  0

Sold Past 6 Months

• Closed Sales:  7
• Average Sales Price: $257,303
• Lowest Sales Price: $148,600 (Plat 1)
• Highest Sales Price: $317,525