It’s that time – the time for Q1 numbers for Perrysburg.

And they are interesting.    The Blade called – asking me if Toledo real estate is picking up.   I don’t see it – but Perrysburg sellers do.  They are raising their prices.

And Perrysburg buyers are buying more houses (closed sales were down March 2012 vs. March 2011 but there are many more “sale pending” deals in the pipeline.

These are MLS only numbers for single family sales – I am not putting in condos, duplexes, etc.

Upshot:  Fewer houses closed in Q1 2012 vs. 2011

Fewer houses on the market.

More houses sales pending.

Median price in Perrysburg for Q1 2012 $189k.   For $87/sq. foot.

(Just click on the images below for full size legible versions . . . )

It’s always good to end on a high note.

Here is a table of SOLD prices in Perrysburg, looking back 2 full years.

Even if it’s not that high.

Prices in Perrysburg for single family home sales were technically down in December 2011 vs. 2010.  But the average price was higher.

Seasonality has fully returned . . . which means lower closing numbers are in store for January, February, and March.

What about the price trends for what sellers are asking and buyers are writing accepted offers on?

Glad you asked!

Here’s your pretty chart (just click on it to read it in normal size . . . )

Remarkably steady and constant if you factor our the seasonality effects . . . Still not a normal market in Perrysburg . . . but we are getting healthier!

Wow.  It snowed last night.   Which caused me to order snow tires.  I am expecting the worse . . . and hoping for the best this Winter.

Which leads me to the current market stats.

I am expecting the worse . . . and hoping for the best in the Perrysburg real estate market.  It SEEMS like things are more “back to normal” . . . but IMO things are not going to go back to what used to be.   There has been too much economic disruption and movement and change.    Values and taxes and employment have changed and shifted.   But every dollop of good news comes with a side order of bad news . . . so please do not accuse me of parroting the NAR line of “now is a great time to . . . .”

Here are this month’s single family and condo sales and numbers in Perrysburg:

Closed Sales: 82

Median Price: $204,500 (that’s the second highest monthly median price in 2 years)

Average Price/Sq. Foot (sold): $95

Sold House Average Days on the Market: 152

October 2011 Number of Houses Listed: 339

Number of Houses Pending: 41

Months Supply of Inventory: 6.6 (which is why the market seems better this month . . . )

So there you have it.   Things are getting more balanced.   But the market is still very price sensitive and buyers are still in the drivers seat.

The numbers are firming up . . .

The casino is hiring . . .

The sun is shining nice and warm in October . . .

And my team and I are selling lots of property . . .

So what do the numbers say?

Fewer Perrysburg houses on the market.

More houses in Perrysburg pending sale.

More houses in Perrysburg closed.

And fewer houses in Perrysburg failing to sell.

What’s not to like about these numbers as seen on this chart?  (you can click on it for a full size view . . . )

A recovery?  I think not.   Not until more and better things happen on the employment front.   We are seeing natural market forces balancing out a bloated inventory.   I am seeing cash investors moving in to buy good deals (I personally wrote 4 cash offers today, and negotiated a cash offer on a Perrysburg listing . . .).   I am seeing sellers who can’t afford to sell call the bank, or lease the house out and move to Florida or S. Carolina anyway.

No.   Not a recovery.   But something better than what we had last third quarter in 2010.

The market is in flux.

The job market is abysmal.

The broad economy in Northwest Ohio – horrible.

The stock market -

And . . . 30 year fixed money for houses 3.99%.

FHA loans as low as 3.75%.

Amazing.   We are talking record low interest rates.  Breaking ALL modern records.

Why?  It seems that with the volatility in every other part of the economy, large investors still want to have money invested that makes money and getting mortgage backed securities that have a government approved stamp and pays 3.5% to 4.5% seems like the best bet.

But . . . that does not make it “a great time to buy a house” as the National Association of REALTORS chief economist can always be faithfully predicted to spout.   It’s only a great time to buy a house if it really is for you and your family.   How is your credit?  Your savings?  Your rainy day fund?  Your other debts gone/under control/closed out?  Your job?  Your current lease ending?   Get ALL of that right . . . . get the right house . . . and with these ridiculously low interest rates . . . it might make sense to buy in Perrysburg right now.

Which is what we have in Perrysburg.

I could write about the increase of homes being foreclosed.   And I could write about the national and local statistics of homes “under water”.   And I could write and tell you about the personal trauma so many Northwest Ohioans are facing in this market.

And yet . . . there are many homes selling for MORE than asking price.

And with more than one offer coming in.

The market is bifurcated – with 2 sides.  2 halfs.  2 realities.

Case in point: the single family MSI in the 43551.  That stands for “months supply of inventory”.

It’s a measure of how balanced the market is.  How “hot” it is.  How hard buyers or sellers have to fight for each deal.  It is, in one sense, a worthless number!  Because you only buy one house.  You only have one house to sell (normally) if you are a seller.  The medians and averages and group aggregation of data mean little in one little deal.

But they do set the tone for the market.

Right now?   Just 6.1 months supply of inventory in Perrysburg.   Last August there were 260 houses for sale in Perrysburg and 7.9 months of inventory.  Last month there were only 224 houses for sale and with 37 under contract just 6.1 months supply of inventory.   MSI always drops in the Summer.  It always goes up in the Winter.   But that is a 23% drop in 12 months from August to August.   So the Perrysburg market “feels” hotter if you are a buyer.   If you are a seller?   The broken record says “it’s all about price and condition” and it is.

Of note, at least to me, are the following:

May of 2009 – 352 houses for sale.   May of 2011?  310.  Down 12%   Buyers have fewer houses to choose from . . .

May of 2009 – 30 houses “sale pending”.  May of 2011?  51.  Up 70%  Buyers are buying more houses . . .

May of 2009  – 24 houses closed.  May of 2011?  36 closed.  Up 50% Buyers did buy more houses . . .

Prices?

This is what is interesting . . .

May of 2009 – Median “For Sale Price” – $212,450.  May of 2011?  $219,000.   About the same.

May of 2009 – Median “Closed Price” – $187,200.  May of 2011?   $188,500.  About the same.

May of 2009 – Median “Under Contract Price” – $227,500.   Last month?  $175,000.  Down a whopping $52,000 and 23%.

What is going on? More houses selling.  Fewer houses on the market.  And a blood bath, apparently, in what buyers are buying.

They are INCREDIBLY price sensitive right now.

Now – these are monthly numbers in a restricted sample.  So they dance around a lot.  But the volatility is not in the asking price.  Or even the closed price.  It’s in the price of the homes that buyers are putting under contract.    April and May are normally big months for houses in Perrysburg going pending – and right now if the price is right it can be sold.

Price it wrong . . . and it will sit.

More stats:  we are down to 5 months supply of inventory right now – a recent low.  And the average house takes about 4 months to sell/close.

Pretty data pictures:

‘Double-Dip’ in Housing Prices Even Worse Than Expected

U.S. single-family home prices dropped in March, dipping below their 2009 low, as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand, a closely watched survey said Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists’ expectations.

The price index was below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis. The glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand have kept the housing market on the ropes even as other areas of the economy start to recover.

The 20-city composite index was at 138.16, falling below the 2009 low of 139.26.

“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement. “Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”

You can read about it here . . . . but this is what I have feared and been warning about.

The Toledo Blade just ran a story here.

About March 2011 City of Toledo numbers.

And their rather precipitous drop.  *(Which I have written on/predicted/sang like a canary in a coal mine about)*

They say:

Some important Perrysburg single family numbers for your review this week:

1. $$$ per sq. foot in Perrysburg.   It’s UP!!! By 17%.

2. Supply and Demand in the 43551.   Fewer houses FOR sale.   Fewer houses SOLD.