It’s always good to end on a high note.

Here is a table of SOLD prices in Perrysburg, looking back 2 full years.

Even if it’s not that high.

Prices in Perrysburg for single family home sales were technically down in December 2011 vs. 2010.  But the average price was higher.

Seasonality has fully returned . . . which means lower closing numbers are in store for January, February, and March.

What about the price trends for what sellers are asking and buyers are writing accepted offers on?

Glad you asked!

Here’s your pretty chart (just click on it to read it in normal size . . . )

Remarkably steady and constant if you factor our the seasonality effects . . . Still not a normal market in Perrysburg . . . but we are getting healthier!

Which leads me to the current market stats.

I am expecting the worse . . . and hoping for the best in the Perrysburg real estate market.  It SEEMS like things are more “back to normal” . . . but IMO things are not going to go back to what used to be.   There has been too much economic disruption and movement and change.    Values and taxes and employment have changed and shifted.   But every dollop of good news comes with a side order of bad news . . . so please do not accuse me of parroting the NAR line of “now is a great time to . . . .”

Here are this month’s single family and condo sales and numbers in Perrysburg:

Closed Sales: 82

Median Price: $204,500 (that’s the second highest monthly median price in 2 years)

Average Price/Sq. Foot (sold): $95

Sold House Average Days on the Market: 152

October 2011 Number of Houses Listed: 339

Number of Houses Pending: 41

Months Supply of Inventory: 6.6 (which is why the market seems better this month . . . )

So there you have it.   Things are getting more balanced.   But the market is still very price sensitive and buyers are still in the drivers seat.

I have seen lots of multiple offers in Perrysburg.

I have seen a seeming “shortage” of good listings priced to market.

But is that good news?  Or is that bad news?

It really depends on where you are sitting and whose side you are on.

A buyer/future homeowner?  That’s often bad news.

A seller/homeowner?  That’s maybe good news.

Now – more GN/BN.

The Case-Shiller numbers just went UP for the first time in a long time – as far as Detroit matched pair real estate numbers go.  And I really do believe that Detroit is now the perfect analog for Toledo real estate numbers and velocity of sales.

So . . . . that’s good news, right? Yes.   I think so.

What’s the bad news?

Mortgage defaults – i.e. future foreclosures – are going up for the first time in 2 years.

It came from a blurb on housingwire.com:

“The national delinquency rate for borrowers who are 60 days or more past due on their mortgages rose for the first time in two years during the recent third quarter, TransUnion said Tuesday.

The delinquency rate for seriously past due loans edged up to 5.88% in 3Q, TransUnion reported.”

Which tracks what I am seeing – lot’s more foreclosures in Perrysburg and Maumee.  

That is the bad news.

The casino is hiring . . .

The sun is shining nice and warm in October . . .

And my team and I are selling lots of property . . .

So what do the numbers say?

Fewer Perrysburg houses on the market.

More houses in Perrysburg pending sale.

More houses in Perrysburg closed.

And fewer houses in Perrysburg failing to sell.

What’s not to like about these numbers as seen on this chart?  (you can click on it for a full size view . . . )

A recovery?  I think not.   Not until more and better things happen on the employment front.   We are seeing natural market forces balancing out a bloated inventory.   I am seeing cash investors moving in to buy good deals (I personally wrote 4 cash offers today, and negotiated a cash offer on a Perrysburg listing . . .).   I am seeing sellers who can’t afford to sell call the bank, or lease the house out and move to Florida or S. Carolina anyway.

No.   Not a recovery.   But something better than what we had last third quarter in 2010.

I could write about the increase of homes being foreclosed.   And I could write about the national and local statistics of homes “under water”.   And I could write and tell you about the personal trauma so many Northwest Ohioans are facing in this market.

And yet . . . there are many homes selling for MORE than asking price.

And with more than one offer coming in.

The market is bifurcated – with 2 sides.  2 halfs.  2 realities.

Case in point: the single family MSI in the 43551.  That stands for “months supply of inventory”.

It’s a measure of how balanced the market is.  How “hot” it is.  How hard buyers or sellers have to fight for each deal.  It is, in one sense, a worthless number!  Because you only buy one house.  You only have one house to sell (normally) if you are a seller.  The medians and averages and group aggregation of data mean little in one little deal.

But they do set the tone for the market.

Right now?   Just 6.1 months supply of inventory in Perrysburg.   Last August there were 260 houses for sale in Perrysburg and 7.9 months of inventory.  Last month there were only 224 houses for sale and with 37 under contract just 6.1 months supply of inventory.   MSI always drops in the Summer.  It always goes up in the Winter.   But that is a 23% drop in 12 months from August to August.   So the Perrysburg market “feels” hotter if you are a buyer.   If you are a seller?   The broken record says “it’s all about price and condition” and it is.

May of 2009 – 352 houses for sale.   May of 2011?  310.  Down 12%   Buyers have fewer houses to choose from . . .

May of 2009 – 30 houses “sale pending”.  May of 2011?  51.  Up 70%  Buyers are buying more houses . . .

May of 2009  – 24 houses closed.  May of 2011?  36 closed.  Up 50% Buyers did buy more houses . . .

Prices?

This is what is interesting . . .

May of 2009 – Median “For Sale Price” – $212,450.  May of 2011?  $219,000.   About the same.

May of 2009 – Median “Closed Price” – $187,200.  May of 2011?   $188,500.  About the same.

May of 2009 – Median “Under Contract Price” – $227,500.   Last month?  $175,000.  Down a whopping $52,000 and 23%.

What is going on? More houses selling.  Fewer houses on the market.  And a blood bath, apparently, in what buyers are buying.

They are INCREDIBLY price sensitive right now.

Now – these are monthly numbers in a restricted sample.  So they dance around a lot.  But the volatility is not in the asking price.  Or even the closed price.  It’s in the price of the homes that buyers are putting under contract.    April and May are normally big months for houses in Perrysburg going pending – and right now if the price is right it can be sold.

Price it wrong . . . and it will sit.

More stats:  we are down to 5 months supply of inventory right now – a recent low.  And the average house takes about 4 months to sell/close.

Pretty data pictures:

About March 2011 City of Toledo numbers.

And their rather precipitous drop.  *(Which I have written on/predicted/sang like a canary in a coal mine about)*

They say:

Simple.

Elegant.

Same seasonality.  Only 12 months of time to account for.  You can ignore the median price due to sample size.

28% fewer homes pending.

38% fewer homes sold.

50% drop from May/June numbers.

Raw Data with Median Prices:

Want to sell?

1. Be motivated.  Have a good reason.

2. Be prepared.  Have a good plan.

3. Be buyer focused.  Have a good price and good terms/condition.

This chart shows that there is a move toward a more balanced supply of houses:

In the cold, cold months of Winter the 43551 had about 10 to 13 months of inventory on the market and moving off the market.

That was too much obviously.

Now?

May MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) was 4.7 months.  It was 6.5 last month.

It always drops in the Spring and Summer (mine is a seasonal business – like picking strawberries).

But the current numbers are indicative of strong demand from buyers, the continuing popularity of Perrysburg real estate, realistic sellers, and sellers moving houses off of the market.

How about prices?

Behold the numbers:

Ignore the bank numbers – and median prices for closed Perrysburg homes are right – almost exactly – where they were last year in May.

In fact, they have declined from this past Winter, which speaks of sample size issues.  The trend is steady – perhaps we have reached the end of the pricing cliff in Perrysburg?

The answer is . . . “it depends”.

On your price.  Your motivation.  Your vacuuming.  Your pets.   Your kids.  Your collection of stuff.

Overall, in Perrysburg, the average DOM or “days on the market” is right about 90 as of last month.

However it changes month vs. month and week to week.

Why?  Houses are coming on the market.   They are going pending.  They are coming BACK on the market.  And with a 300 to 500 house sample population it does not take much to whipsaw the numbers for one month.

So the TREND is what I look at.

With REO sales red hot right now (so says this report from California and my own Perrysburg REO’s are pretty much all sold or under contract). . . is that activity helping move other, non REO houses?

Inquiring minds want to know:

You can too – on this chart.

And the trend is that houses are selling FASTER (fewer average days on the market) and there is less “wait” (which we call MSI or “months supply of inventory”)   The Perrysburg MSI is now 1/2 of what it was a year or two ago – down from 21 months to a more manageable 7.1 months supply of inventory.

Price still rules.

So get your house priced right, cleaned up, and then the numbers will play out good for you.