Perrysburg Blog

Down 40% . . .

Thanks for asking!

But I am having a great month . . .

Ouch.

Good homes?  They are still slowing.

Overpriced, underwhelming homes?  You can only imagine!

-44% drop in NUMBER of closed sales means that you need an agent who knows the market, knows how to market, and knows how to sell your home to a buyer, a bank, and an inspector.

Why?

The casino is coming . . . details here.

Why is that bad news?

Inevitably, after a 2 year latency period, the incidence of crime against people and crime against property increases.

Every time.

Everywhere a casino is built.

You can count on it.

Build one in Wood County?  Along the Maumee.  Or in the “Golden Triangle”.  And there will be negative, deleterious effects on the values of Perrysburg homes.

You can “BET” on it.

The scholarly  paper on this is interesting reading.  And sobering reading.

Here is the paper by Earl Grinols and David Mustard.

The casino lobby will never stop.  They will try and try and try - stopping only when they have fooled enough people.

Things will be great.  For a couple of years.

Then the neighborhoods closest to the “Crossroads Casino” will start to be negatively effected.

That negative trend will then metastisize and spread.   From Starbright to Belmont to Three Meadows and beyond.

Theory?  Supposition?  Hardly.  Read the literature.  (page 14 shows how MILLIONS in lost property values is the result of the “jobs creating casino”.

Bring on a casino I say.

But build it RIGHT NEXT to the Toledo Correctional Institution on East Central.

Crimes against people.

Crimes against property.

Visitor crimes.

Criminal gambling.

Costs of addiction to gambling.

Increased rapes.

Increased police costs.

We neither need nor want these things in Wood County.

The day they get their way is the day we start to pay.

Sadly there is no Case-Shiller study for Perrysburg.

Our market is too small.

And too nice.

And too friendly.

But I digress.

The Case-Shiller study of residential home prices, which I have written about before, is a matched pair study.

Only the exact same houses are included, when they have sold and resold.

So it is pretty accurate as least as far as the lack of “adjustments” that applied by appraisers when trying to make different houses look and act and price the same.

But I digress.

Which I am doing a lot of this month when thinking about the Case-Shiller numbers.

Why?

Because I operate on a couple of standard assumptions.

1. You reap what you sow.

2. Practice and hard work make you succesful, not MLM’s.

3. Detroit = Toledo.  At least as far as real estate values go.  Generally.  Mostly.

And the 12/2008 Case-Shiller numbers say that Detroit real estate lost, on average, 21.7% in value during the previous 12 months.

The latest Case-Shiller chart?  Reminds me of Deer Valley in Utah.  And that’s a beginner hill there!

Which kind of takes your breath away.

And makes you want to digress and diverge and divest and maybe even weep.

But - I have to remember and remind my clients that Detroit is not Perrysburg.  And that if you waited to buy, congratulations, you just made more money.  And that you and your 401k probably would be ECSTATIC over a 21.7% decrease.

But still - that’s a huge, unprecedented decline.

Is it over?

Are values firming up?

Time will tell.

I don’t think that there is another -21% left to give.

But then almost no one thought this COULD happen 4 years ago.

Houses that priced right.

Houses that are in the right condition.

Houses that are therefore IN DEMAND.

These houses - SELL.

Immediately.

This one, sold for just about full price, to the first buyers through.

And it’s not a cheap house.

Not at all.

Why?  What with all the bad news out there . . .

It was priced right.  It was in perfect condition.  It had a great floor plan.  And the seller worked with me to get it right.

Boom.

One showing.   One offer.  Gone.

That was quite a windstorm last week in Perrysburg.  Wow!  Out at my house it gusted to almost 55 mph.

The power went out a number of times.

And each time - our generator kicked in.

Silently.

Automatically.

And without any intervention from me.

If you have a finished basement . . . . this can save you $15,000.

If you have an extended power outage - it can keep your home from freezing.

In my mind, the home generator is not a luxury, but out to be part of a standard fit out for many houses.

I am noticing more and more of them as I look at newer homes.

(You can’t help but hear the advertisements on the radio, too)

They look like a central air system compressor box - sitting outside next to the house or condo.

A close look will show that they have a fuel hookup coming in - either natural gas or propane.  That’s how they run.  The Guardian models start up automatically once a week to keep themselves ready to run or lubricated or just because it’s fun, I guess.

This is the one at my parents condo.   They were so impressed with my generator . . . that they had to copy me.

It runs the whole house when the power goes out - as long as you are not welding and vacuuming and using the electric range for broiling all at the same time I imagine.

Get one and you will not believe how you ever lived without it.   No noise.  No fuss.  No muss.  No hassle.   It simply powers your house.

Resale value?  I have never done a resale with one of these new models.  But I imagine that it will be a great resale feature.

It sure beats a flooded basement!

Our local paper was kind enough to interview me for a comment on their story about the recent NAR housing price numbers - which show that Toledo is now a very, very affordable town to buy a home in.

One number that I shared with them was the huge price drop in one zip code in Toledo.  A 75% price drop in January 2009 vs. 2007.

How can that be?

75%???

The answer is that over 50% of the sales in the City of Toledo in January were distressed sales.

So these numbers - these horrible numbers are skewed.

Because of WHO is selling and WHY they are selling.

After all, it’s not “regular owners” who are selling.

It’s the banks that they now own!

Median prices of homes in Toledo - which depending on how you measure them - can actually NOT indicate their current value.    These numbers represent the average disposal prices that it takes to clear them in this market in view of their status as assets that need to be disposed of by financial owners.

A better measure of value is the Case-Shiller index of RESOLD HOUSES.

More on that later . . .

Sellers need not despair.  Not now.

Not one bit.

There are going to be income phase outs.

There are going to be all kinds of government red tape requirements.

But don’t believe me.

Read the experts.

A real economist, James Hamilton, opines:

“If my hunch is correct, then all the house purchase tax credit will do is to modestly increase the number of houses sold each month… with no noticeable impact on house prices.

That doesn’t mean that the tax credit would have no impact. In particular, it may be a boon to some cash-constrained households that want to buy a house right now but can’t borrow enough. And it should help to reduce inventories of unsold houses by a bit. But if you’re hoping that it will make house prices rise, with all of the beneficial economic effects on home equity that such a rise might have… think again.”

Do we really want to be encouraging “cash constrained households” to buy houses they really cannot afford today?

Seriously.

Is not that “solution” somehow related, at least tangentially, to the problem we find ourselves in?

With a GM and Chrysler bankruptcy imminent . . . with declining real property values in Perrysburg . . . with our regional banks failing . . . might I suggest a tax cut?  A payroll tax cut?  A tax holiday?  A tax cut for business?  Something to goose employment?

I will encourage every American to pray for our leaders.  Pray that they have wisdom.  They are lacking it right now by borrowing or printing a TRILLION DOLLARS that we don’t have for things that will not work.

Avoid the hassles of the city!

Avoid the noises of the city!

But get a big snow blower and a big lawn tractor.

5 acres, 3 beds, new baths, and a bargain price for 4171 Dowling Road.  Perrysburg mailing address with excellent Eastwood Schools.  $150’s.

Did I mention 5 acres?

No pole barn yet, that is the first thing the next buyer will add.

We call them “Toy Boxes” in male real estate lingo.

You will love this home.  So new on the market there are no photos and no brochures or virtual tours yet.

Tell a buyer you know if you don’t love country living.

This house will make some city slicker very, very happy.

Do you own real property in Perrysburg? In Wood County?

Then send a thank you note to the solons in Lucas County. Because in the real world, when transfer costs and holding costs increase, the value of an asset . . . DECREASES.

And in Lucas County both have happened.

And their actions up in Lucas County make Wood County and Perrysburg real estate MORE VALUABLE by direct comparison.

Recently the geniuses in Toledo increased the transfer tax due when a property sells. It’s paid by the seller and they upped it by 33%.

Smart. That $800,000 in planned revenue? It will cost them a couple of million in lost value of property sold.

Then Lucas County went and sold their outstanding tax liens to a New Jersey company. For cash. On the barrel head.

The plan was something like this: You give us cash. We give you the liens. You talk to the people who used to owe us money.

The REALITY was this: We give you cash. You give us liens. We immediately file foreclosures on EVERYONE who has a tax lien. Of any amount. Today. And we are going to pile on with attorney costs

Brilliant!

What a way to treat your citizens.

A New Jersey firm? Maybe the lawyers are from Cicero Illinois.

ALL of this activity makes owning real estate harder, more painful, and more expensive.

In Lucas County.

The real property owners of Perrysburg and Wood County will benefit.

I estimate you just made $1000 per property.

Thanks Lucas County

Get me some country living!

Who would have ever thought I would ENJOY living in the country? Not me!

But my wife “pestered” (she really didn’t. she simply kept educating me and helping me to open my eyes!) and after 4 years of procrastination we moved out to the country - Perrysburg Township. Where we love it.

Now I present to you a fine Perrysburg Township farm property. The 100+ acres of farm land is gone - so all that you are left with is 10 acres of barns, trees, a creek, a pond, silos, a pool, and fine country farm house.

Make of it what you will. Ride, shoot, explore, plant, keep some horses. But just know that when you come home from a hard day at work, there is plenty of “country therapy” available to keep you sane and young.

There is a lot more work out in the Township. More lawn to mow. More drifting snow to plow. More things to clean or power wash or kill or cut or . . . but that is actually some of the hidden joys of living in the country that you lose out on in the city.

This house is for sale on Dowling Road. Priced in the $250s’ it is a great buy.

And it will change someone’s life.

Call or email me to see it. You can look at all the pretty pictures at my property website - www.modene.com.