Perrysburg Blog

Advice I am giving to potential sellers:  don’t sell unless you really need to.

Advice I am giving to sellers that really need to:  make sure you really need to sell.

Advice I am giving to sellers that are sure that they really need to sell: there are too many houses for sale given the buyer activity we have right now – let’s find out how we can work together to sell your house in this environment.

The WSJ has an interesting missive out today - about the glut of houses on the market.

Interesting reading:

“Pending sales, signed contracts on the purchase of new homes tracked by the National Association of Realtors, were down 3% in June compared to May. That month saw a 30% drop in the index, after the April 30 expiration of the home buyer’s tax credit.

The pending sales numbers point to more alarming home sales figures, wrote Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim in a note Tuesday. Mr. Oppenheim said that given the sales pace, we’re on track to sell 3.7 million homes total this year–-the lowest seasonally adjusted level of single-family existing home sales since the fall of 1996.”

I read elsewhere that a major US builder does not want anymore tax credits or Federal home buyer stimulus.  “Just let the market work” was their plea.

The housing market is tough right now – investors from out of state are buying 100 to 400 houses in a single auction.  You want to compete against that?  In Toledo? “Gird your loins” as they say.

In Perrysburg we are not at that point (and never will be . . . !) but the dynamic pressures just to the north of us still impact this market.   When housing values plummet close by it hurts us.

Great listings are still in demand.

Great buyers are still coming to PBurg.

Enjoy the Glut if you can!

There really was one a couple of weeks ago . . . although I did not feel it.

But there has been an ongoing one . . . for the past 3 or 4 or 5 years.

The “mortgage implosion”.  Which is really the “people who have lost their jobs can’t pay their mortgages implosion”.

Excerpting from today’s Toledo Blade:

Metro area 52nd highest in ’10 foreclosure filings

Metro Toledo ranks 52nd highest in foreclosure-related filings in the first half of the year among the nation’s top 200 metro areas, a new study shows. The ranking, the worst among the metro areas in Ohio, is based on the number of filings of default and auction notices and repossessions per households. RealtyTrac Inc., a national real-estate data tracking firm, says in a report released today the Toledo area has one such filing for every 65 houses.

#52.  Of the top 200 foreclosure towns.

Not.  Good.  At.  All.

You can argue about school funding, TARTA leaving, and the constant I-75/475 construction projects all you want to.

But when 1 out of 65 houses in T Town has JUST GONE UNDER THE GAVEL in 2010 . . . . the other problems are not that important.

My advice?  No need for a Foreclosure Czar.  No need for a conference.  No need for a telethon.

People in Toledo need J.O.B.S.

That is the only thing that is going to bring housing back, equity back, and end the misery and physical destruction of real estate in Northwest Ohio.

Got kids?

There are good things and bad things for them to do.

My wife and I have been blessed with three of them.   And I know this:  you better have a plan.   For some activities.

Because if you don’t they will make their own.

Here is a list of just SOME of the things we have tried to do or done or continue to do with our little brood, in no specific order:

1. Attend a Mud Hen’s Game and do everything but watch the game.
2. Play miniature golf.
3. Go ice skating at BGSU. (when the arena is finally done!)
4. Attend a high school football game at Steinecker Stadium.
5. Attend a play.
6. Bike or walk with them.  Talk to them while you do.
7. Enjoy nearby Maumee Bay State Park in Oregon.
8. Attend the Circus at the Seagate.
9. Go to the Rodeo.
10. Discover electricity at COSI Toledo.
11. Go out for pizza.
12. Go sledding at Ft. Meigs.
13. See Lights Along The River.
14. Drive out to Crane Creek for birding, hiking, swimming.
15. Watch the Polar Bears at the Toledo Zoo.
16. Catch a “road show” such as Ice Capades.
17. Go to the Carousel Museum in Sandusky.
18. Go to Mystery Hill on Catawba.
19. Visit the Lakeside on Catawaba.  Sit at the dock and look.
20. Watch the Rockets at UT.
21. Waterslide and play at Cedar Point.
22. Explore on “Monster Island” at Sidecut Metro Park.
23. Get a poolside hotel/motel room for a mini-vacation.  Try the new Holiday Inn in Maumee by the turnpike – close and quick.
24. Go to Perrysburgs’ giant jungle gym, Ft. Imagination.
25. Explore Ft. Meigs.
26.  Try the Museum of Art “It’s Friday” program for families.
27. Go to Perry’s Falls for miniature golf.
28. Attend Annual Art Fair in Ann Arbor.
29. Almost anything at Sauder’s Village in Wauseon.
30. Go to the new Tennis Center south of PB on SR 25.  Expose them to tennis.
31. Take the boys to Dayton for the Air Force Museum.
32. Old fashioned soda fountain trip to Grand Rapids (Main St.)
33. Take a pony ride at a fair.
34. Check out Toledo Zoo’s latest exhibits.
35. See the F-16’s at Toledo Express.
36. Overlook the city from a hot air balloon ride.
37. Visit the Monkey House at the Toledo Zoo.
38. Attend any ethnic festival in Toledo.
39. Go to the Toledo Symphony.
40. Go on a boat ride from Sandusky.
41. Cross-country ski at Oak Openings.
42. Play at KidsSpace at COSI.
43. Tour the courthouse’s dome  in Bowling Green.
44. Try the Arawana boat ride.
45. Discover your family tree on-line and have them help research.  Write a book about what you find.
46. Attend the Toledo Opera.
47. Get some “hot” dogs at Tony Packo’s.
48. Pick strawberries out on Central Ave.
49. Attend the Nutcracker.
50. Play golf on beautiful public courses. Kids caddy.
51. Try the annual Air Show at Cleveland.  90 minutes away . . . or in Toledo when it happens.
52. Drive to the docks on east side.
53. Go on the S.S. Willis Boyer.
54. Take the Jet Express from Pt. Clinton to Put-in-Bay.
55. Go to the indoor shooting range at Clelands (if old enough!).
56. Drive to Amish country (Holmes County).
57. Go to the Wood County Fair tractor pull.
58. Go fishing, anywhere.
59. Catch a musical at the Stranahan.
60. Go to the Rubbermaid Outlet in Wooster (trust me on this one).
61. Have an old-fashioned soda at Mom’s in downtown Archbold after hiking Goll Woods.
62. Bike the new bike trails.  Slippery Elm is GREAT.
63. Fly a kite in our windy skies.
64. See a first-rate hockey game at BGSU.
65. Watch an IMAX movie at The Henry Ford Museum – less than 1 hour away off of I-75.
66. Chuck E. Cheese’s!!!
67. Go to Ritter Planetarium.
68. Go to the Detroit Car Show.
69. Go to any Common Space art classes.
70. Watch the Fourth of July Fireworks at Ft. Meigs.
71. Pet animals at the Toledo Zoo Petting Zoo.
72. Go to a Michael’s Craft Classes.
73. Domino’s Pizza Farm, Ann Arbor.
74. Watch Ft. Meigs Militia reenactment of 1812 battle.
75. Visit a pet store.
76. Help Daddy build a jungle gym.
77. Visit Camp Snoopy at Cedar Point.
78. Visit the Auburn-Cord-Duesenberg Museum in Indiana.
79. Tour Barry’s Bagels.
80. Try Safari Park on Catawba.
81. Go to the Zoo’s “Music Under The Stars”.
82. Have a cheap, I mean cheap, giant cone at Twistee Treat on Dixie in Perrysburg.
83. Spend a day at Shipshewana.
84. Barnes and Noble story time.
85. Go to the kids workshop on Sat. morning at Home Depot in Perrysburg.
86. Go to the Way Library, hear stories, read, have fun.
87. Eat out Friday night— everyone else does.
88. Go to any parade.  Try Memorial Day or Veteran’s Day
89. Harrison Rally Days, Perrysburg.
90. Pick a bushel of apples yourself at McQueen’s Orchard.
91. Watch Independence Day fireworks on the Maumee in a boat (get there really early!).
92. Visit the Apple Butter Festival, Grand Rapids.
93. Take `em to a Tigers Game at the new Comerica Park.
94. Go to the Detroit Farmer’s Market.  WOW!
95. Get in the car, drive to downtown Chicago, have lunch at FoodLife at Watertower Place, shop at The American Girls Store (girls only!)  go on the submarine at the Museum of Science.   Drive home.   Whew!
96. Visit any Navy ship or vessel that comes to Toledo and has tours.
97. See the glacial grooves on Kelleys’ Island.
98. Go pedal boating at Olander Park.
99. Go through the tunnel to Windsor.  Open your windows – honk the horn.
100. Read them a bedtime story.
101. Watch old movies from your childhood & let them laugh at you.

I moved here as a child – had no choice in the matter since my parents were in control.

I moved away for grad school and a term with IBM in my first career.

But I came back.

And I am planning on staying.

It’s the experience of many transferees – get here and see how great the land/people/values/housing/transportation . . . and even the climate is.   Especially when compared to Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago, and other “big” cities.

Northwest Ohio has them ALL beat.

Which is a complete redesign of www.GoToledoHomes.com.

It’s now the best buyer search tool in town.

Enjoy!

Is this one from Forbes . . . about the WORST real estate markets in America right now.

Toledo is on this trajectory:  lost jobs, out of control State government, public school meltdown, and out of control local government.

You can just look north . . . to DTW . . . to see what the potential future holds if some serious changes are not made in Northwest Ohio.

With interest rates rising,  taxes increasing, and a steady grab of diminishing income from private citizens being answered with decreasing city services, things are not on a good path right now.

Toledo does not need this kind of publicity.

This blog is about PERRYSBURG real estate.

And . . . I sometimes have made tongue in cheek comments about Perrysburg gaining at Toledo’s expense . . .

But I do not want to see Toledo drained dry.

I don’t know anyone who does.

It’s the Greater Toledo Metro Area . . . and we are all interdependent economically.

Let’s hope they make some wise decisions up there!

Here are the comments and the list from Forbes:

1. Milwaukee, WI: Some cities’ housing crisis stemmed from rampant overbuilding. Others can blame the decline of the manufacturing industry. Milwaukee has felt both. The worst-selling housing market saw a 47% increase in unsold homes between 2008 and 2009, thanks both to underlying economic problems and overzealous development during the housing bubble.
2. Denver, CO: Denver doesn’t come to mind as a housing-crisis hot spot, but the city that once looked like it would escape the housing bust unscathed now shows signs of strain. More than 42,000 homes are on the market in the metro, 27% more than last year.
3. Los Angeles, CA: Los Angeles has yet to recover from the blows it took when the housing bubble burst. Home sales fell by 5% in the metro between 2008 and 2009, while they rose, if only modestly, in most other large metros. Home sale prices peaked in late 2006, and it looks like the remnants of overbuilding will continue to clog the housing supply.
4. St. Louis, MO: The city has shed jobs and seen housing prices plummet. Inventory in the metro is up 36%, in part as a result of its 11% unemployment rate. Manufacturing jobs no longer drive the city’s economy, and slow sales are just one symptom of its economic maladies.
5. San Francisco, CA: Unemployment has reached 11% here, and home prices fell by 6% between 2008 and 2009. The area’s poor-home-sale performance shows that California’s housing woes spared no city.
6. New York, NY: New York likely made the list in part because the condominium market, which drives much of Manhattan real estate, wasn’t included in the analysis. Still, not everything’s rosy in the Big Apple: Sale prices were down 13% between 2008 and 2009, and inventory has seen a 13% rise.
7. Cincinnati, OH: Like Cleveland and other Rust Belt cities, Cincinnati suffers from a lack of jobs–the city is 11% unemployed–which has cut sales dramatically and left a glut of unsold houses behind. Inventory in the city rose 48% between 2008 and 2009.
8. Cleveland, OH: Cleveland was suffering before the housing crisis hit, but the bursting of the bubble surely didn’t help. Unemployment is at 10% in the metro, which has hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs. That means families don’t have the means to buy, and homes remain unsold.
9. Atlanta, GA: Inventory was up 6% in 2009 from the previous year. That may not sound like much, but together with flat quarter-over-quarter single-family home sale prices and sluggish sales rates, the overbuilt city shows significant signs of strain.
10. San Diego, CA: Scores of new condominiums were constructed before the market peaked in the first quarter of 2006, driving up prices and spurring overbuilding. Many units were built for speculative buyers, but today the brand-new luxury buildings sit empty.

More words than I am going to write.

“When is the market turning around?”

“Is it getting better in Perrysburg?”

Many questions . . . . and I continually believe that until the job market changes, nothing will change for the better in Perrysburg real estate.

The data from all the various states has been combined into an info-packed graph:

When companies are expanding, hiring, and adding employees that is when real estate will turn around.

Not until then.

Some real estate advice – from a guy who has sold a few houses and a few investments over the past 20 years.

If it sounds too good to be true – it is.

If someone who drives a Ferrari wants you to invest your money with him – run away.

If some sharp guy wants you to get you in early on a great real estate investment but, you know, the details are a little fuzzy . . . and he drives a Ferrari, in Perrysburg Ohio – run away.

(N.B. – this letter is PRICELESS.  Enjoy reading it before the U.S. Marshall takes it down.  You have to have chutzpah to make these Ponzi Schemes work!!!)

Now $50,000,000 is gone, 400 plus people are victims, and a couple of banks are in big trouble.  See this excellent Toledo Blade story for details.

Real estate investments often take time.  And effort.  And hard work.

They pay off with great appreciation if you buy right, great depreciation and tax benefits, great cash flow, and even -sometimes – amazing profits over the short term if you add or bring something to the deal.

One quick check on these birds would have told you if they owned real estate, were paying their rent on time at Levis Commons, or had legal problems.   I did – they were not even paying their office rent.

Think about that – people will invest their hard-earned money with some guys who are not even paying their rent.

Amazing.

You want to make money in real estate investing?

Beware the compelling, the likable, the personable . . . they seem to be suspect in the end.

Roll up your sleeves.   Do some hard work.  EARN your money and in so doing, you will keep it relatively safe.

Do you see it?

Not many do.

I will share with you my current take on the Perrysburg/Northwest Ohio real estate market.

First – there are TWO markets.   Not surprisingly you may have already figured this out.  There is the REO/Bank Foreclosure market.  And then there is everybody else.

Two markets – in the same market space.

Competing with each other.  Interacting with each other.  Together making up one single market.

I believe that every single buyer and seller has to understand this in all its’ implications.

Second:  There is a giant elephant standing the corner of the Perrysburg market.

Many agents are willfully blind.  Many sellers are deluded.  Many people don’t want to talk about him.

But I will.

That giant elephant in the corner?  He is representing the lack of “move up” buyers in the current Northwest Ohio real estate market.

Move up buyers?  They have been Perrysburgs’ bread and butter.  People “move up” out of their Toledo/Sylvania/Maumee/Point Place home to a larger, better, more expensive house in Perrysburg.

These move up buyers made our market work.   They bought the $189,900 house.  The $320,000 house.  The $499,900 house.

Now we have a market in NWO full of first time buyers ($8000 tax credit) and full of investors (Heh!  This is better than my stocks!).     This dearth of move up buyers is NOT unique to Perrysburg – see this story.

I talk to many homeowners today – they CANNOT afford to sell and move up.

I can also report, in an anecdotal manner, of buyers who buy who tell me that this is their last house.  They plan on being buried in the yard of their home!   A mental shift has occurred-  houses in Perrysburg are no longer investments, or financial stepping stones on the upward path to The Sanctuary.  No – they are hard-nosed financial purchases that have to work in a families budget.

The upshot – the lack of move up buyers is felt especially hard in Perrysburg and other former “move up” suburbs (Sylvania, Monclova, et all)  and shows no signs of abating.

People who bought at the peak of the market have no reason to sell now and then “lock in” their paper losses.

People who bought and have mortgage problems?  They can’t move up.

Seniors and older buyers?  They are not buying up – they are buying down.

First time buyers?  They ARE buying in Perrysburg, but not in the traditional move up price ranges.

If you have a “McMansion” that you HAVE to sell – I can sell it.  It is salable.  But the price will have to be compelling to attract buyers.

I have sold close to 40 homes in the past 60 days – the highest number in my career.   But that is because I and my team are pricing to today’s market.

• 1.8% of all U.S. homes are in foreclosure
• Therefore, 98.2% are NOT in foreclosure
• 33% of all owner-occupied homes don’t even have a mortgage!
• 18% of all U.S. mortgages are upside with 2/3 of them located in 7 states (Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia)
• 2.8% of all U.S. mortgages are three or more months in arrears.
• There are 18.6 million vacant homes in the U.S. now.
• 25 MLS closed sales, single family, in Perrysburg, February 2009
• 305 MLS closed sales, single family, in Lucas and Wood Counties, February 2009
• Average Toledo Board of Realtors agent sold just .25 of a home in February 2009
• Jon Modene closed 11 transactions in February, 2009.
• Perrysburg number of listings for sale on MLS, end of February, 2009 = 305
• Perrysburg number of listings that went “pending” in February, 2009 = 30
• Perrysburg median SOLD price, February 2009 = $172,000
• Total number of houses for sale in Lucas and Wood Counties in February 2009 = 4838
• Total number of houses that went pending in Lucas and Wood Counties in February 2009 = 363
• 11.1 Months supply of inventory in Wood and Lucas Counties

When Will The Market Thaw??

I am asked by about every client or customer: “When is it going to turn around (in real estate)?”

I don’t know the answer.

I used to say “If I did have the answer to that question I would be working on Wall Street” – but that’s not a good place to work anymore!

Here’s what I think:  when the number of new bank owned properties starts to dry up, then the market will change course.

But you must know this – Fannie, Chase, Freddie, Bank of America, et al have all had a moratorium on new foreclosures and evictions for the past 60 days – and that “REO HOLD” has NOT slowed the pace of new REO properties coming on the market.

Why?

The casino is coming . . . details here.

Why is that bad news?

Inevitably, after a 2 year latency period, the incidence of crime against people and crime against property increases.

Every time.

Everywhere a casino is built.

You can count on it.

Build one in Wood County?  Along the Maumee.  Or in the “Golden Triangle”.  And there will be negative, deleterious effects on the values of Perrysburg homes.

You can “BET” on it.

The scholarly  paper on this is interesting reading.  And sobering reading.

Here is the paper by Earl Grinols and David Mustard.

The casino lobby will never stop.  They will try and try and try – stopping only when they have fooled enough people.

Things will be great.  For a couple of years.

Then the neighborhoods closest to the “Crossroads Casino” will start to be negatively effected.

That negative trend will then metastisize and spread.   From Starbright to Belmont to Three Meadows and beyond.

Theory?  Supposition?  Hardly.  Read the literature.  (page 14 shows how MILLIONS in lost property values is the result of the “jobs creating casino”.

Bring on a casino I say.

But build it RIGHT NEXT to the Toledo Correctional Institution on East Central.

Crimes against people.

Crimes against property.

Visitor crimes.

Criminal gambling.

Costs of addiction to gambling.

Increased rapes.

Increased police costs.

We neither need nor want these things in Wood County.

The day they get their way is the day we start to pay.