Which starts most Thursdays at 3PM.

And is on today, for the first time, in 2012.

It’s a great Perrysburg tradition, filling the first block or two of Louisiana Ave. in downtown Perrysburg.

I personally think that they should block off the street . . . but it’s running fine as it is, so why make changes.

I have a report, from one of my crack in the field reporters, that there are now fresh macaroons being sold there that are reminiscent of my wife and my favorite treat in NYC and Paris – Laduree.

Make what use of that you will . . .

But I will focus on this one . . . . and it’s a building lot.

In the lovely Sanctuary subdivision right off West River Road.

This lot?  Large, River Road address, access/service road for access and entry, excellent Perrysburg Schools . . . and the exclusive address/location of the Sanctuary.

My very (did I mention VERY . . .?) motivated sellers no longer need the lot – which sold to a builder for $72,500 in 2006 and they picked up to build on.

Our price?   A ridiculous $39k.

For a large building lot in the Sanctuary.

Amazing!

Call me very fast!

The sky is a little brighter this week.

The sun has been shining more in Perrysburg.

And there are lots more accepted offers and buyer offer writing action in play.

Even though things could change.

And even though national indices are split – with sales down and values up.

It’s a confusing market.

But . . . “all real estate is local”.

So here is my take on the recent spate of action in the 43551:

Affordability

• Affordability is at its highest level in the past several decades.
• Many Perrysburg homes now cost 30-40% less than they did 6 or 7 years ago.

Pent-Up Demand

• Many of today’s buyers need to buy because their families have grown, they just moved here, they got a promotion or a raise, and other valid reasons.
• Sellers who hung on during our real estate decline have paid down debt (including mortgage debt), saved their money, and are now ready to move up.

Low Interest Rates

• Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remain below 4% and rates for 15-year mortgages are even less.
• Buyers are realizing that these rates are certain to rise if our national economy regains it footing.

Buyers Believe There’s Little Downside

• Buyers who were previously afraid they would lose money if they bought a home are now realizing that the risk is reduced and that they have waited long enough.
• Prices in the Perrysburg real estate market have stabilized in most segments of the market.
• The grim bloodletting in the suburbs is almost over – with values rationalized and the flight to safety of steadier values in the periphery of Toledo increasing values.

Cheaper To Own Than Rent

• It used to be cheaper to rent than own a home, but that has changed.
• Rents are soaring and now exceed the cost of home ownership in many instances.
• Given a choice, most renters would rather own their own home than pay off their landlord’s mortgage with their rent payments.

According to this report . . . YES.

That will be great news.

I am however reminded of Mr. Reality.   Standing right there, outside my office here in Perrysburg.

And that was Mr. Reality slapping me and my clients in the face with . . . reality.

For I am getting ready to close a short sale here in Perrysburg next week.

A FIVE YEAR short sale.

Five years on the market, in default, rented, managed, negotiated, appraised, inspected – then repeat over and over again.

And I am not complaining.

I am happy to be able to close it.   It is very satisfying.  The clients are thrilled.   The customers are thrilled.   The neighbors will be thrilled.   The banks involved are acting in their own best interest.

But . . . I feel the sting of reality.

Banks are not going to make short sales easy.

Or fast.

Or painless.

If they do the whole mortgage market will implode.

Short sales are an excellent idea.   When the house is no longer needed or wanted by the owner a short sale helps the neighbors.   It stabilizes the subdivision.   It’s a great idea and it works.

But please, don’t believe that it’s going to be fast.   Don’t be a Real Estate Pollyanna.

And they are interesting.    The Blade called – asking me if Toledo real estate is picking up.   I don’t see it – but Perrysburg sellers do.  They are raising their prices.

And Perrysburg buyers are buying more houses (closed sales were down March 2012 vs. March 2011 but there are many more “sale pending” deals in the pipeline.

These are MLS only numbers for single family sales – I am not putting in condos, duplexes, etc.

Upshot:  Fewer houses closed in Q1 2012 vs. 2011

Fewer houses on the market.

More houses sales pending.

Median price in Perrysburg for Q1 2012 $189k.   For $87/sq. foot.

(Just click on the images below for full size legible versions . . . )

All is new in the Spring market . . .

Except if your house failed to sell in 2011.  

Why?

What happened?

Many would say:

1. It was not marketed properly.

If your last agent is/was broke and destitute and/or does not use internet marketing . . . there may be a correlation with these salient facts and your unsold home.  Just saying!

2. It was not in good condition.

Maybe no one thought to ask the buyers that looked what THEY thought.  Maybe your dog/cat/teenager scared away the traffic.  Maybe the directly competing houses blew yours away.

3. It was not a team effort. 

There should be good and effective communication between the home owner and the listing agent.   They must work together.

4. It was not properly priced.

This is the single most important factor today – price.   It beats 1,2,3 above.  It trumps everything including the price of gasoline, the time of year, and is equal to location.

Price is the KEY dynamic.

Ignore it and your home will not sell.

How should you price it?  Who should you talk to?  What comparable sales are good?  What adjustments do you use?  What repairs do you think I should do?

An open house won’t fix an incorrect price.

A new Realtor won’t fix it!

Price is absolutely critical in the Perrysburg real estate market today.

There’s lots of buzz out there about the improving residential market.

Good stories here.  And here.

I maintain that well priced, clean and neat houses in Perrysburg that are, let me repeat, well priced – can receive multiple offers.

But the value has to be there.

And the condition has to be right.

In the City of Toledo?  A whole different scenario is playing out.   And it’s multiple offers on mortgage-less houses or REO assets.

Regular well priced listings over $100k are sell-able but not “hot” like the prototypical Perrysburg hot listing above.

The caveat I want to point out is that this is happening in effectively a 0% interest market. 

The cost of money is almost free today.

Laughable.

What will happen when that changes and rates “zoom” up to a more normal 5 or 6 or 7%?

What will happen when capital gains taxes are raised next year by our president (hint: property values will decline in the minds of investors and then real prices will fall).

What will happen when . . . . well you get the idea.

The Case-Shiller numbers from Metro Detroit are at a current level of 70.04, down from 70.95 last month and up from 67.49 one year ago. This is a change of -2.13% from last month and +2.50% from one year ago.

Is that the REAL bottom?  Is that a REAL improvement?

The Libertarian/Free Market counter argument is found HERE for your edification.

This blog is about real estate in Perrysburg  – a hyper-local look at our little tiny market.   And since “all real estate is local” it’s appropriate to note that prices in Perrysburg are firming up while the metro Toledo area, our neighbor to the north, and much of the country are in serious trouble.

That’s how many new build houses are on the MLS as I write this.

13.

In a city/township of almost 50,ooo people.

That’s. Not. Many.

13.

The new construction market has imploded.  Died.  The builders are gone.  Busted.  The developers are gone.  Broke.   The few homes on the market are by very specialized and savvy niche builders.

And they tend more towards building for contract rather than speculation.

Want a new home?  You are going to have to sign a contract and have your financing in place.  That’s how it works in 2012.

(By way of the old memory bank . . . it worked this way in 2005 – we would get in a car and show you 25 houses in various stages of completion in Perrysburg and if you didn’t like any of them we would have one build just for you . . . )

How bad was it nationwide?  National TOTAL new construction sales fell 2.2% from last month to a rate of 307,000 annualized.  The total in 2010 was 323,000, the lowest amount since record keeping began in 1963.

That’s the dead cat thud.

There is now nowhere to go but up . . . right?

Builders have to be very careful . . . but there is no competition if you have a spec or can build on a contract.

Buyers?  Better be ready to rent while you build!

It’s always good to end on a high note.

Here is a table of SOLD prices in Perrysburg, looking back 2 full years.

Even if it’s not that high.

Prices in Perrysburg for single family home sales were technically down in December 2011 vs. 2010.  But the average price was higher.

Seasonality has fully returned . . . which means lower closing numbers are in store for January, February, and March.

What about the price trends for what sellers are asking and buyers are writing accepted offers on?

Glad you asked!

Here’s your pretty chart (just click on it to read it in normal size . . . )

Remarkably steady and constant if you factor our the seasonality effects . . . Still not a normal market in Perrysburg . . . but we are getting healthier!

I wrote an offer or two this week.  On Perrysburg properties.  Being sought after by investors.

It’s common.

And it’s getting to be more common.

Think about where you can invest your money:

1. Stocks.   Maybe smart.  Maybe painful.  Check out the history of FSLR, my favorite stock, and hold on.

2. Bonds.  The returns are not much though.  In fact, this week, large investors were willing to PAY money to invest in German government securities.  Imagine that strategy taken out enough years  – you will have NO money with a long enough investment.

3. Cash.

4. Gold.

5. Other investments.

6. Real estate.

I had to list a house in Toledo today – $12,000 or so.  My firm last sold it for $70,000.   Now there are some terrible facts and realities associated with such a market crash.

Ignore all of them.

Instead imagine you bought the house for $12,000.

What could you do with it?  What kind of rental income could you get? What is the upside?  What tools and skills would you need to make it into a great rental property?

Again – people are seeking out real property in this collapsed, depressed market.  To invest in.

Inventory is down by over 20%

Interest rates are at all time lows.

Rents are up and rising.

And multiple offers are hitting on good houses.

And I think fortunes may be made right now . . . in Perrysburg rental property.