Perrysburg Blog

The sales numbers:  GRIM.

I am sure that they will be all over the news.

“Existing-home sales plunged to their lowest level in 15 years in July as inventories soared, painting a grim picture for the housing market absent government support.

“Home resales dropped a record 27.2%—nearly twice as much as analysts had expected—to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Meanwhile, inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, pressuring already depressed home prices. Inventories are at their highest level in more than a decade.”

This is not a surprise.

Residential real estate is a game of positioning.  Of immediacy.  Of marketing impact.

Give financial incentives to lots of buyers to hurry up and buy . . .  they will and then prices and sales will crater.

Pull demand forward  . . . and there is a snap back the next quarter.

None of this was unpredicted.

Sellers in Perrysburg today have to have their home in PERFECT condition.  Priced PERFECTLY to the market.   They have to be on the top of their game.

The numbers are grim – but houses that are presented and priced well are selling.

Even in this market.

Next post: Perrysburg sales numbers . . .

I was talking this week with a fellow Realtor.

About the dearth of new REO orders.

In the face of hundreds of empty houses.

“What is going on in your business?” I asked . . .

He is seeing the same thing that I am.

The REO pipeline has been shut down.

It started 3 or 4 weeks ago.

Someone “of a higher paygrade” decided to slow down the marketing of new foreclosed homes.  The news is grim – at least in the headlines.  Then you read the reassuring copy – “nothing to worry about”, “move on . . . nothing to see here”.  Let’s say I agree.  There is no wave of new REO coming.    Then the tactic of the lenders to hold off inventory now is a premeditated attempt to firm up prices and values for today’s buyers and to protect their asset values.

The houses that are foreclosed and not available?

Oh – they are still there.  They are just sitting empty.  Waiting.  Marinating.

Does this make sense?  Does this make money?  Does this “help” the housing market?  Does this increase prices?

Like “Rosebud” in Citizen Kane . . . NO MAN KNOWS.

I do get phone calls.

“I have a couple of questions about . . . ”

And I try my best to answer them.

I also have a couple of questions about Perrysburg Real Estate:

1. What is the future of home values in Perrysburg?  Will we ever see an “automatic 3%” increase every year like we did for many years?

2. What is the impact on the continued meltdown in Toledo home values going to do to our prices/values in Perrysburg residential real estate?

3. How much/many new taxes and property tax levies can the citizens of Perrysburg keep passing and paying until the stigma of “too many taxes” hits the top of mind thinking of buyers and they discriminate AGAINST Perrysburg listings/houses?  Will the City ever STOP spending more each year?

4. Who is going to rent/lease in Levis Commons?

5. What is the “BEST” subdivision in Perrysburg?  The one that people, irrespective of price point, love the most?

6. What can Perrysburg do to better leverage one of the greatest downtown districts in Ohio?  More car shows?  More parades?  Getting more people to a bigger/better Thursday Farmers’ Market?

7. How many homeowners are “underwater” in Perrysburg today?  Right now?  And how does that realization change their spending?  Change their planning?  Change their involvement with the community?  Change their desire to stay/work here?

I do not have the answers . . . . not on these.  I’m just asking . . .

Just so you can identify what they are doing . . .

And just as a public service . . .

IF you reply to one of these incredible rental deals in Perrysburg or Sylvania here is the first letter you get.   Note how they suck you in and how later you will have to give them more info.  These Nigerian Scammers and very good – they bait the hook and play the fish:

Hello,
I did get your response concerning the AD I posted on craigslist. The house is still available but I’m not in the state. I did bid for a portion of Gas(popularly known to be  the oil and gas sector) in west africa and fortunately I won the bidding,so I had to move quickly down to west africa to set up my own company. because I will have to rebid for it in the next 10 years. I came over here with my wife, we both built the house when we got married. As soon as we settle down here I had  thought of selling the house, so I had an agent who had wanted to help me in that regards,not until my wife had advised against such plans;she gave reasons that we will definitely be in search of a new home when  coming back to the state and that a nice home might not be as easy to get.I gave it a second thought and decided is best I have someone take very good care of the house while I’m away… So I contacted the agent back and requested for my keys and documents(you will get to see in the front yard, the ”for sale sign” which will be no problem handling cause I will take it off as soon as I can find the right person to occupy the house) Later we decided to have the house leased out,I personally would have given the same agent this task to carry out,but the extra charges these agents get for carrying out thier chores,we belive might scare those seeking to rent our home.Some people are not aware that you get to pay more in rent when an agent is involve,and get to pay less when renting from the owner directly(so the agent is not invlove in this).If you have taken notice you will discover that the price we are offering is far below the market price,it’s for a fact that we are not after the money but the very upkeep and proper care that our new tenant can offer in regards to the house.The house is completely empty now(the refrigerator,washer,dryer,stove and some more that are just what we have left in the house)so, you can get to move into the house with your furnitures cause the rooms are big enough for them.I will be providing my new tenant with a local account where the monthly rent can be paid into.I will be providing my address over here where my new tenant can always write me..I will have to go through the information that I had requested to help me with having the right person occupy the house, and also would like to discuss things over on phone( my cell phone number is right below) so that I can be pretty sure of a true screening before giving out any form of approval…The keys and paper works will be forwarded to the current address via DHL or FEDEX upon approval.I will be coming back from time to time to check on the house and to see in what condition it has been kept.The lease term will be for a maximum of four years.

Please if you are ready now to occupy the house kindly provide the information below for record purpose

PLEASE TELL US ABOUT YOURSELF
Full Name__________________________________________________ Home Phone (        ) ________________________
Date of Birth_________________________________
Other Phone (       ) ___________________
Current Address_______________________________Apt#________ City__________________ State______ Zip________
Reasons for Leaving____________________________Rent $__________Phone (       ) ____________________________
Are you married____________________________
How many people will be living in the house__________________________
Do you have a pet____________________________
Do you have a car____________________________
Occupation____________________________
Move In Date____________________________
House Address:
XXXXX XXXXX XXXXXXXXX

P.S.;YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO VIEW THE INTERIOR PART OF THE PROPERTY,BECAUSE I HAVE THE KEYS AND DOCUMENTS HERE WITH WITH ME.

Regard’s Mr.Peter Fox
Phone…+234-80226310
011-234-8022631

I have, for many years, provided MLS feeds for my customers and clients.

In the “old days” on-line we were allowed to give consumers the picture of the house and the price but NOT the physical address.

Then the National Association of Realtors got serious about data sharing rules – and promulgated them into something called “IDX”.

Many real estate companies got “IDX compliant” websites with the full data feed from the MLS.   Consumers had to register but it was all there.

Then agents got their own “IDX sites”.   Then national and regional “aggregators” jumped into the pond.

Today, my own local Board of Realtors really can’t say with any accuracy how many data sharing websites are out there with MLS data for Northwest Ohio.

So – the data is out there.  (BTW, you can see a chronological listing of new listings in Perrysburg over to the left of this post  .  .  . constantly updated.)

There is a plethora of sites.

What can an enterprising entrepreneur do?

How about provide the BEST data site?

With the most bells and whistles?

With mapping?  Alerts?  Big photos?

That might work.

It’s called www.GoToledoHomes.com

It is the absolute best, fastest, most feature rich MLS site that any consumer can use.

Some agents have even told me they like it better than our own MLS.

You have to get your own registration to try it – name and email and phone number.

But it will rock your world if you are looking for a house in Perrysburg sometime in the next 12 months.

They need the work.

They are hungry.

They can be there 24/7 for you . . .

There are so many reasons to hire the financially destitute Realtor.  It’s just that none of them accrue to your benefit.

And, seriously, there is just a little bit of downside risk.

From my observations this week, talking to dissatisfied former clients of broke Realtors, and Realtors who are unable to sell real estate today:

A. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to be there.  They are not going to return your call.  Or have staff and support to do so.   You are going to be on your own.

B.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to invest much money in marketing your house.  They don’t have any money to invest.  And if they did they need it for themselves and their survival.

C.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is going to be distracted.   Seriously distracted.  With a new job.  With court problems.   With other career issues.   Think that won’t hurt the sale and marketing of your listing?  Sure.

D.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the best and most up to date technology and software.   No office to take an interested potential buyer to.   No color printer to make brochures for you with.  No scanner to digitize paperwork with.   No wide angle lens for the camera that makes your home more attractive on line.  No . . . you get the picture.

E. The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to do the right thing when they should.  They may be desperate.  And the blood of desperation in the pool with your equity is not a good mixture.

F.  The Financially Challenged Realtor is not going to have the judgment needed to effectively protect you from scams and scammers.  They will instead try to sell you on uplines, travel deals, pills and potions, and magic software that will help you pay off your mortgage early (for an investment of $3000 up front for the magic program).

Help yourself . . . if you feel sorry for a broken real estate agent, give them a donation.  Don’t donate your home’s value.

Buyers like a process.

Their process may be different from mine.

This buyers process in buying a home may be different from that buyer.

But they all like a process.

And one thing that absolutely NO buyer likes is to hear “give us your highest and best offer.”

That means that the house in question is wanted.

By other buyers.

Sometimes lots of other buyers.

Sometimes only one other buyer.

I have 2 or 3 of these “highest and best” offer negotiations going on today.

Here are a few buyer responses and results:

A. One possible response from a buyer is “I want to see the other offers!”

- No.  You can’t.  If I tell you or your agent that there is another offer – there is.  Anything else is fraud and we don’t do that.  We say it is true and it is.

B. Another possible response from a buyer is “I don’t want to bid on that house anymore – pull my offer!”

- Will do.  You can.  But then you won’t be purchasing that house.   And you may facilitate the other buyer getting it at a price much lower than you would have paid.    I try to explain to my buyers that if a multiple offer situation is occurring on a bank owned property that bank does not care about WHO or WHAT they just want to close the sale.  You can pull out but you won’t hurt their feelings or teach them anything.

C. You can do your research.  And bid accordingly.  Then you get the house or investment you want at the price you can afford.   One of the best and sneakiest tactics is real simple – offer, in writing, to bid $1000 HIGHER than any other competing written offer.   Sometimes, again in a bank owned situation, they won’t let you do this.  But other owners will, and it gets you back in control, with an effective “veto” over the final price if you write the counter offer properly.

No one likes unwanted competition.

It disrupts the buying process.

But for the BEST HOUSE at a GREAT PRICE you must be prepared for a “Highest and Best” offer scenario.

It is Monday.

72 degrees and sunny.

The Federal Tax Credit program expired on Friday last week.  Back to normal.

Sometime last month the Fed stopped buying/funding Mortgage Backed Securities.   The tap was turned off.   The world?  It did not end!   Investors still want to buy mortgages!   Back to normal.

There are no major Ohio loan/bond issues being promulgated.  Back to normal.

Two offers on Perrysburg listings today:

A buyer just submitted a conventional financing loan/offer to me.

Another buyer . . . . the same.  Back to normal.

In Perrysburg real estate, with no tax credits, special government loans, and other market deforming forces THIS, today, right now is normal.

Rules for this market, now that it is finally normalizing:

1. Price is king.  Queen.  And Jack.  It’s all about price.

2. Perrysburg still get’s the “Perrysburg Premium”.  It just does.

3. Quality of life, crime, schools will continue to be more valuable.  Perrysburg ought to not mess this one up.

4. It has to appraise.  Your wants/needs/sticker price/contract price  . . . all will be validated, satisfied, and hostage to the appraisal.

5.  It’s allright to mow your neighbors yard.  Seriously.   If they are gone – foreclosed – abandoned – you can mow it.  It keeps up appearances.  It keeps out the petty crime that vacant houses attract.  It actually may increase your homes value.   Neighborhoods have to start banding together.

Here’s a three year overview of supply and demand in the entire Northwest Ohio market:

It has leveled out – the new normal has arrived.

Is this one from Forbes . . . about the WORST real estate markets in America right now.

Toledo is on this trajectory:  lost jobs, out of control State government, public school meltdown, and out of control local government.

You can just look north . . . to DTW . . . to see what the potential future holds if some serious changes are not made in Northwest Ohio.

With interest rates rising,  taxes increasing, and a steady grab of diminishing income from private citizens being answered with decreasing city services, things are not on a good path right now.

Toledo does not need this kind of publicity.

This blog is about PERRYSBURG real estate.

And . . . I sometimes have made tongue in cheek comments about Perrysburg gaining at Toledo’s expense . . .

But I do not want to see Toledo drained dry.

I don’t know anyone who does.

It’s the Greater Toledo Metro Area . . . and we are all interdependent economically.

Let’s hope they make some wise decisions up there!

Here are the comments and the list from Forbes:

1. Milwaukee, WI: Some cities’ housing crisis stemmed from rampant overbuilding. Others can blame the decline of the manufacturing industry. Milwaukee has felt both. The worst-selling housing market saw a 47% increase in unsold homes between 2008 and 2009, thanks both to underlying economic problems and overzealous development during the housing bubble.
2. Denver, CO: Denver doesn’t come to mind as a housing-crisis hot spot, but the city that once looked like it would escape the housing bust unscathed now shows signs of strain. More than 42,000 homes are on the market in the metro, 27% more than last year.
3. Los Angeles, CA: Los Angeles has yet to recover from the blows it took when the housing bubble burst. Home sales fell by 5% in the metro between 2008 and 2009, while they rose, if only modestly, in most other large metros. Home sale prices peaked in late 2006, and it looks like the remnants of overbuilding will continue to clog the housing supply.
4. St. Louis, MO: The city has shed jobs and seen housing prices plummet. Inventory in the metro is up 36%, in part as a result of its 11% unemployment rate. Manufacturing jobs no longer drive the city’s economy, and slow sales are just one symptom of its economic maladies.
5. San Francisco, CA: Unemployment has reached 11% here, and home prices fell by 6% between 2008 and 2009. The area’s poor-home-sale performance shows that California’s housing woes spared no city.
6. New York, NY: New York likely made the list in part because the condominium market, which drives much of Manhattan real estate, wasn’t included in the analysis. Still, not everything’s rosy in the Big Apple: Sale prices were down 13% between 2008 and 2009, and inventory has seen a 13% rise.
7. Cincinnati, OH: Like Cleveland and other Rust Belt cities, Cincinnati suffers from a lack of jobs–the city is 11% unemployed–which has cut sales dramatically and left a glut of unsold houses behind. Inventory in the city rose 48% between 2008 and 2009.
8. Cleveland, OH: Cleveland was suffering before the housing crisis hit, but the bursting of the bubble surely didn’t help. Unemployment is at 10% in the metro, which has hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs. That means families don’t have the means to buy, and homes remain unsold.
9. Atlanta, GA: Inventory was up 6% in 2009 from the previous year. That may not sound like much, but together with flat quarter-over-quarter single-family home sale prices and sluggish sales rates, the overbuilt city shows significant signs of strain.
10. San Diego, CA: Scores of new condominiums were constructed before the market peaked in the first quarter of 2006, driving up prices and spurring overbuilding. Many units were built for speculative buyers, but today the brand-new luxury buildings sit empty.

Especially with regards to “winterizing” your house.

I was showing a house this weekend on Saturday.  A nice house.  A big house.  An expensive house.

And as I was showing it . . . droning on with my comments for the benefit of my client . . . I know that my brain was telling me something:

“There is a noise that does not belong here.”

“There is a strange noise.”

“Heh – Look at your breathe – it is COLD in this house!”

It was, of course, the sound of running water.

Which is not a good thing to hear in what should be an empty, freezing house.

It in fact constitutes an emergancy as far as the value of the property is concerned.

Here is the actual progression of this and other incidents that I have observed:  Cold.  Expanding water in pipes.  Broken pipes.  Water shooting out of pipes.  Water filling every nook and cranny as gravity, absorption, and other physical forces work in a weird combination.  Mold spores liking the new moist environment.  Mold spores reproducing.  Huge areas of porous surfaces destroyed.  Large water and remediation bill arrives.

It’s a terrible thing to see.

It’s a tragedy if it is your house and bank account.

So – when I tell a client “you really should winterize the plumbing” (which involves a licensed professional with a bond and liability insurance draining and blowing out and filling the pipes with antifreeze . . . and then standing behind his work) —– when I tell a client that, you should listen.

Because if you have been in the houses that have not done that, gambled on our winter weather, and lost – if you have seen it go bad – I would not have to tell you even once.

Still . . . you can do it yourself if you are so inclined.   But one way or another – winterize those pipes!