Perrysburg Blog

Disclaimer:  no snarky comments or inferences in this post should be construed as anything but an endorsement for my Dentist – Dr. Christopher Clark.  I like him.  He is incredibly talented.  He knows the ins/outs and tools/tactics to do any dental procedure with elan and skill and care.

But . . . sometimes selling a house in Perrysburg today IS like going to your dentist and getting root canal.  Which I just did with Dr. Clark.

It takes time.

It takes multiple appointments.

It takes effort.

It takes reasonable skill and training.

The dentist has to have the right tools and facilities.

The dentist has to have the right support staff.

You want your dentist to be . . . actually working full time in and on dentistry.  

All of these things are similar in my pursuit of helping clients sell their real estate and my dentists skill and care at removing dental problems.

(But . . . I sadly note . . . that I cannot give you laughing gas or an anesthetic shot to make your pain fade for a couple of hours).

As with the average root canal . . . in selling a home today there is perhaps going to be some pain involved.

Some emotional conflict.

Some stress and or trepidation.

But . . . if it has to be done and needs to be done and the situation and circumstances tell you to get it done . . .  what else can you do?

You get it done.

You know I love numbers if you read this blog.   More numbers!   More stats!  More graphs!

And you might think that I therefore believe that you figure out the Perrysburg real estate market by reading the statistics reported by the media.

But, the numbers aren’t always the numbers and here’s why!

Sales Prices

• May include seller-paid buyer’s closing costs and/or bonus commissions paid to buyer agents that distort the true property value.
• On FHA loans that close today . . . almost ALWAYS includes 3.5% credits to the buyer.
• May include major repairs and or other credits on cash sales.
• Often use funky/wonky things like tax prorating methods to shove more cash to a buyer.

Average Prices

• Can be influenced substantially (higher or lower) according to the mix of properties sold during the time period.
• In a small sample size – one or two large sales can skew the numbers.

Days On Market

• Can be gamed by pulling the property off the market for 30 days, then re-listing.
• Can also be gamed by changing the address spelling (North First Street vs. N. First Street or N. 1st Street, for example).
• Often covered up by switching brokers.

So . . . the numbers you read are not always truthful.

But I still love analyzing and sharing them!

Here is a tabular report of the MSI – Month’s Supply of Inventory – for Perrysburg as of 30 days ago.

Seasonality is stronger than it was 5 years ago.

20% or so fewer houses active on the market vs. 2 years ago and WAY down over 5 years ago.

8 months or so of inventory?  Pretty balanced in my opinion – as I am hearing from more and more buyers who are NOT getting the house they bid on – which was unheard of last year.

Why?  I only write about one listing – a “listing post” – when it’s A. In Perrysburg.   And B. Special.

So I will write about 1752 Horseshoe Bend.

Because it’s a great house.  3 beds, side-load garage, Corian counters, fenced yard, big basement ready to finish, and as neat and clean as a pin.   $207k tax value.  Today’s price?  $185k.

Oh, the location?

Check out this aerial photo – it’s the house/lot just above the “H” in Horseshoe Bend.   Oh – that’s Perrysburg High School off to the west . . . . so no excuses about it being too cold or wet to walk to school!

And I am not sure that I like it . . .

Because I just wrote an offer and got a home sale pending for the “child” of a client.

Yep.   Someone’s “little kid”.   Whose dad I sold a house for many, many moons ago.

Now buying a home with me and my team.  Taking out a mortgage.  Signing legal documents.

Great.

Which means:

1. Either I have been selling houses for over 20 years. Or,

2. There is a time warp and a dimensional shift has occurred since I don’t feel that old.

In any event it is always a compliment to be chosen to help a man/woman/family find and buy their new home.

It’s a compliment to have loyal, faithful clients – who often turn into friends.

But really – your kids are growing up way to fast!

The numbers are firming up . . .

The casino is hiring . . .

The sun is shining nice and warm in October . . .

And my team and I are selling lots of property . . .

So what do the numbers say?

Fewer Perrysburg houses on the market.

More houses in Perrysburg pending sale.

More houses in Perrysburg closed.

And fewer houses in Perrysburg failing to sell.

What’s not to like about these numbers as seen on this chart?  (you can click on it for a full size view . . . )

A recovery?  I think not.   Not until more and better things happen on the employment front.   We are seeing natural market forces balancing out a bloated inventory.   I am seeing cash investors moving in to buy good deals (I personally wrote 4 cash offers today, and negotiated a cash offer on a Perrysburg listing . . .).   I am seeing sellers who can’t afford to sell call the bank, or lease the house out and move to Florida or S. Carolina anyway.

No.   Not a recovery.   But something better than what we had last third quarter in 2010.

You have a good year.

You sell a lot of houses.

You build your team.

You get to meet and work with a lot of great families and buyers and sellers.

But you did not get there by yourself.   And you certainly do not get to take credit.  And you should not trumpet “I am number 1!”

No.

But I do want to thank my dad – Dave Modene.  He was and is my example for salesmanship, service, and integrity.   I hope that “the apple did not fall” too far from his tree.    He was the top salesman for his company – setting and breaking national sales records.   Then they changed the rules to make it tougher for him . . . he won again anyway.   Then they promoted him.  And promoted him.  And finally he said “NO” . . . “I am staying in Perrysburg”.   He likes it here.   He even turned down a new “mega agency” they put together for him in Minneapolis – which if you are selling products to Lutherans is the second best place in America to be!

So – when I found this old ad . . . It caused me to realize the you should not forget to be thankful for the help and training and examples your father provided.  If I ever sell you a home or help you sell yours – I had a great teacher.

N.B. – My brother Dave – he has carried on the tradition too!

The market is cloudy.

Like our local weather.

It seems like just yesterday it was sunny and bright and warm.   Then . . . BOOM . . .  Fall arrived.

What clouds do I see in the local market?

1. Fixed mortgage rates are low.   And addictive.  I wonder what will happen if rates return to a more “normal” 6 or 7%?   Low rates are a boon to buyers today.   Addictive.  Great tasting.  And will be a curse to sellers in the future.

2. FHA problems.   Loan limits are moving down tomorrow.  And that’s not a big deal here – but the future of the FHA program is now suddenly important to Perrysburg.   A majority of deals in and around Toledo are now FHA funded.   Take FHA away and the bottom will fall out of the market.

3. Appraisal problems.   One of my jobs now is managing appraisal issues.  Up front.  And after the debris of a wrecked deal.   The mortgage implosion has caused the REO explosion.   The shrapnel?   It flies over at supersonic speed and hurts your sale or purchase.

4. The Bifurcated Market.   There are really two markets now.  One for the wealthy.  One for everyone else.   I am certainly not interested in “social justice”.  But a healthy market has movement.  People moving up.  People moving laterally.  People aspiring to invest and save and gain.   Somehow in a diminished, “soft” America with an increasing stratification of incomes and assets we are losing that.

5. More delinquent mortgages in the 43551.   Big news – more and more nice houses in Perrysburg are going to be foreclosed.    I have never in my 23 year career been working on more distressed, big, nice houses in Perrysburg than right now.   And – it’s happening all over America.

6. Rentals.   There is a shortage of them right now in Perrysburg.  Markets hate imbalances.  So – if this continues you may see more rentals being developed here.  More houses being converted to rentals.  And higher rents (good if you are a landlord, bad if you are a renter).

7. Falling incomes.   Which is not something we are used to here.   We are used to wage increases.   Inflation.  Increasing prices. But wage drops?   Effects here are hard to predict.  This could, if it continues, lead to lower property values.  Lower prices for all assets.   And downward pressure on rents and taxes.  More market uncertainty.

8. Boomerang Kids.   What?  What is that??  Kids, done with college *(hopefully not with a degree in Ancient English Poetry or Integrative Social Work for Aleutians!) who are bereft of job opportunities.   Lots of my clients in Perrysburg have had to welcome their progeny back.   So if they are selling or need to sell or buying and need to buy – those extra bedrooms that were empty and contained old PHS trophies and Saturday Night Fever posters . . . are being used again.

These are some clouds on the real estate horizon in Perrysburg.   What clouds do you see?

Which is what we have in Perrysburg.

I could write about the increase of homes being foreclosed.   And I could write about the national and local statistics of homes “under water”.   And I could write and tell you about the personal trauma so many Northwest Ohioans are facing in this market.

And yet . . . there are many homes selling for MORE than asking price.

And with more than one offer coming in.

The market is bifurcated – with 2 sides.  2 halfs.  2 realities.

Case in point: the single family MSI in the 43551.  That stands for “months supply of inventory”.

It’s a measure of how balanced the market is.  How “hot” it is.  How hard buyers or sellers have to fight for each deal.  It is, in one sense, a worthless number!  Because you only buy one house.  You only have one house to sell (normally) if you are a seller.  The medians and averages and group aggregation of data mean little in one little deal.

But they do set the tone for the market.

Right now?   Just 6.1 months supply of inventory in Perrysburg.   Last August there were 260 houses for sale in Perrysburg and 7.9 months of inventory.  Last month there were only 224 houses for sale and with 37 under contract just 6.1 months supply of inventory.   MSI always drops in the Summer.  It always goes up in the Winter.   But that is a 23% drop in 12 months from August to August.   So the Perrysburg market “feels” hotter if you are a buyer.   If you are a seller?   The broken record says “it’s all about price and condition” and it is.

1. Have a finished basement without a back up plan for the sump pump.   The power does go out . . . and if your plan is to call Toledo Edison and beg for faster service . . . .

2. Get your home/budget/mortgage in trouble and not talk to people.   It’s public knowledge.  Some people are going to charge you by the hour and do nothing – some are going to pester you on the phone and do nothing.   Get some special help.

3. Buy an extra house.   Not now.  Not in this market.   Sell your current one first please.

4. Buy REO property to “flip”.  You are not going to do it.  You are not going to make money.   There are lots of good reasons to buy REO as an investment – flipping is not one of them.

5. Pay someone upfront to sell/market/advertise your house.  Just plain bad business.

6. Hire a real estate agent without asking a page or two of questions about them and for them to cogently answer.  Many agents are abandoning the business right now (that’s a good thing!).  Some are carrying on to clients like they are full time producers while they have other jobs and even live in another state!

7. Fail to understand that the first showing of your house for sale in Perrysburg will occur ON THE COMPUTER.  Via the photos that your marketing agent has taken.   Failure to understand this costs you time, money, and sales power.

8. Don’t be pressured into buying right now.   Not by anyone.   There are good deals.   There are smart buys.  There are great personal business cases to be made for purchasing a home for many families.   There are also a lot of fear-based sales tactics that can lead you into a terrible decision.

I will offer this without comment . . . since I believe everyone has the right to sell their house any way they want.  But when you need to sell and you want to get top dollar . . . you need to call some special help.

The owner?  Colby Sambrotto.   He is the founder of the website ForSaleByOwner.com, the entire business model of which is . . . to sell your own property without a real estate broker.

Colby Sambrotto had his own home to sell—a two bedroom in Chelsea in NYC.

Can you guess what happened next?