Perrysburg Blog

Let’s just compare this year vs. 2009.

Simple.

Elegant.

Same seasonality.  Only 12 months of time to account for.  You can ignore the median price due to sample size.

28% fewer homes pending.

38% fewer homes sold.

50% drop from May/June numbers.

Raw Data with Median Prices:

Want to sell?

1. Be motivated.  Have a good reason.

2. Be prepared.  Have a good plan.

3. Be buyer focused.  Have a good price and good terms/condition.

The sales numbers:  GRIM.

I am sure that they will be all over the news.

“Existing-home sales plunged to their lowest level in 15 years in July as inventories soared, painting a grim picture for the housing market absent government support.

“Home resales dropped a record 27.2%—nearly twice as much as analysts had expected—to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Meanwhile, inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, pressuring already depressed home prices. Inventories are at their highest level in more than a decade.”

This is not a surprise.

Residential real estate is a game of positioning.  Of immediacy.  Of marketing impact.

Give financial incentives to lots of buyers to hurry up and buy . . .  they will and then prices and sales will crater.

Pull demand forward  . . . and there is a snap back the next quarter.

None of this was unpredicted.

Sellers in Perrysburg today have to have their home in PERFECT condition.  Priced PERFECTLY to the market.   They have to be on the top of their game.

The numbers are grim – but houses that are presented and priced well are selling.

Even in this market.

Next post: Perrysburg sales numbers . . .

It’s secret.

It’s above top secret.

But if you are doing a short sale you need to change where your checking and savings accounts are.  Banks are now using language in their checking and savings policies that you have agreed to when you opened your account to PULL MONEY OUT of accounts that are not linked to your mortgage.

Now, in polite society, this is called STEALING.

Or THEFT.

In bank terms it is called the “Right of Offset”.  You can go here and do a search for that term if you want to get real mad.

But the average consumer does not have a copy of what they signed, can’t remember, and probably can’t hire a lawyer to look at all their agreements.

So – the simple solution that I am telling ALL my short selling clients is this:  MOVE YOUR MONEY TO A TOTALLY DIFFERENT BANK.

Simple.

Sweet.

Ends the drama.

I won’t name any banks – I am assuming some are not doing this.  But some are.  And the solution to protect you is as simple as the pain of the unauthorized monetary removal is great if it happens to you!

Nope.

Not now.

Not when this: Local Plant Closes Due to Ohio EPA Rules is happening.

214 GREAT manufacturing jobs.

214 bread winners.

214 actual or potential homeowners.

214 new foreclosures?  214 destroyed families.

Why?  Because some Columbus-focused bureaucrats decided to close this plant.

Note this well:  There will be NO HOUSING RECOVERY while such decisions are being made.

The lifeblood of Northwest Ohio is being shipped off – factory by factory and line by line – to Indiana, Tennessee, Mexico, and China.

Your house just went down in value.

Your prorata share of taxes is going up.

Because 200+ jobs are leaving Wood County.

The people doing this need to be hounded from office.

The destruction of jobs is destroying real estate.

Indiana is CROWING about their new corporate addition.

We keep driving jobs out and raising taxes.

Did you know you may have to pay a tax on your home?  When you sell it?

Because of the 2010 Obama Care Health Plan?

Yes.

It’s true.

But it’s also not likely.  At least not right away.

You will have to an income of more than $200,o00.

You will have to have a gain of more than $500,000.

Then you will owe a 3/8% “Medicare Tax” on your capital gain.

Some have called it the “Lawyers and Accountants Employment Tax”.

You can read the excellent article in the Washington Post for all the gory details.

So, unless you have a big bomber on River Road or the Sanctuary . . . and you inherited it . . . you are not going to pay the new tax.

(In fairness I must point out that the new tax is also on tanning, investment income, and many other things – which you WILL have to pay.)

But here’s the problem.

Honestly ask yourself this:  Are the big spenders in Washington D.C. going to ratchet the thresholds up or down in the future?

You and I both know the answer -  $500,000 will be $250,000 then it will be $25,000 (in the name of fairness) and then everyone selling in Perrysburg is going to have to fork over another 3.8% of their homes’ value at the closing table.

Count on it.

Just so you can identify what they are doing . . .

And just as a public service . . .

IF you reply to one of these incredible rental deals in Perrysburg or Sylvania here is the first letter you get.   Note how they suck you in and how later you will have to give them more info.  These Nigerian Scammers and very good – they bait the hook and play the fish:

Hello,
I did get your response concerning the AD I posted on craigslist. The house is still available but I’m not in the state. I did bid for a portion of Gas(popularly known to be  the oil and gas sector) in west africa and fortunately I won the bidding,so I had to move quickly down to west africa to set up my own company. because I will have to rebid for it in the next 10 years. I came over here with my wife, we both built the house when we got married. As soon as we settle down here I had  thought of selling the house, so I had an agent who had wanted to help me in that regards,not until my wife had advised against such plans;she gave reasons that we will definitely be in search of a new home when  coming back to the state and that a nice home might not be as easy to get.I gave it a second thought and decided is best I have someone take very good care of the house while I’m away… So I contacted the agent back and requested for my keys and documents(you will get to see in the front yard, the ”for sale sign” which will be no problem handling cause I will take it off as soon as I can find the right person to occupy the house) Later we decided to have the house leased out,I personally would have given the same agent this task to carry out,but the extra charges these agents get for carrying out thier chores,we belive might scare those seeking to rent our home.Some people are not aware that you get to pay more in rent when an agent is involve,and get to pay less when renting from the owner directly(so the agent is not invlove in this).If you have taken notice you will discover that the price we are offering is far below the market price,it’s for a fact that we are not after the money but the very upkeep and proper care that our new tenant can offer in regards to the house.The house is completely empty now(the refrigerator,washer,dryer,stove and some more that are just what we have left in the house)so, you can get to move into the house with your furnitures cause the rooms are big enough for them.I will be providing my new tenant with a local account where the monthly rent can be paid into.I will be providing my address over here where my new tenant can always write me..I will have to go through the information that I had requested to help me with having the right person occupy the house, and also would like to discuss things over on phone( my cell phone number is right below) so that I can be pretty sure of a true screening before giving out any form of approval…The keys and paper works will be forwarded to the current address via DHL or FEDEX upon approval.I will be coming back from time to time to check on the house and to see in what condition it has been kept.The lease term will be for a maximum of four years.

Please if you are ready now to occupy the house kindly provide the information below for record purpose

PLEASE TELL US ABOUT YOURSELF
Full Name__________________________________________________ Home Phone (        ) ________________________
Date of Birth_________________________________
Other Phone (       ) ___________________
Current Address_______________________________Apt#________ City__________________ State______ Zip________
Reasons for Leaving____________________________Rent $__________Phone (       ) ____________________________
Are you married____________________________
How many people will be living in the house__________________________
Do you have a pet____________________________
Do you have a car____________________________
Occupation____________________________
Move In Date____________________________
House Address:
XXXXX XXXXX XXXXXXXXX

P.S.;YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO VIEW THE INTERIOR PART OF THE PROPERTY,BECAUSE I HAVE THE KEYS AND DOCUMENTS HERE WITH WITH ME.

Regard’s Mr.Peter Fox
Phone…+234-80226310
011-234-8022631

It is being run right now in Perrysburg and Sylvania.

The scammer scrapes a couple of listing photos off of the internet for a nice house in Perrysburg.

Puts it “for rent” on Craigslist.

At a RIDICULOUS price.   Example:  newer ranch, 4 beds, finished basement, etc.  $600 a month.  That’s for a house that should rent for $1500 or so.

That is also the BAIT.

In the last Craigslist Scam I warned you about it was phony owners who pretended to be phony landlords who simply rented out a house they had access to buy no right to lease.

Poof – your deposit and first months rent are gone.

This new scam is worse – because the Nigeria based scammer wants you to fill out a standard lease application.

Think about what you put on there:  SSN, date of birth, copy of drivers license, and on and on . . .

With this they clone your identity and cause all sorts of mischief.

It it’s too good to be true . . .  it is.

And if the putative landlord has no office, no access, and wants you to scan your app to him via email . . . RUN.

(BTW – these guys are good – no local presence means local police are powerless.  They can only be identified and avoided not prosecuted and caught.)

This:  the news that mortgage interest rates for residential borrowers are at an “all time low”.

Details:  WSJ.

4.58% for a 30.

4.04% for a 15 year term.

As the members of the National Association of REALTORS say . . . “NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOME”!!!

But take the letter “w” out of that sentence and no – it might NOT be the best time to buy.

Not if you don’t have a down payment saved.

Not if your consumer debt is out of control.

Not if your car is over-leveraged and your school loans are hitting.

Not if your job is in danger.

It might NOT be a good time to buy.

The bank rate on borrowed money should be one of the last considerations about timing and pulling the trigger on a home purchase.

I listed 2 foreclosed homes today.

I am certain that each of these homes had a prior owner that was absolutely certain it was a great idea to buy.

And I am certain that each of these former owners – I have talked to both of them – wish they would have made another choice.

Don’t let the “buy, buy, buy” PR machine push you into buying.

Buy if it is the right, correct, and wise decision.

Don’t buy because rates are low today.

One more thought . . . why do you suppose this trend will stop?  If it continues then NOW is actually NOT the best time to buy a house.

Macro?

Big.

A simple chart of “big numbers” that covers the whole US economy.

Perrysburg area homes would be included . . . as a tiny little subset of these big, macro numbers.

While these are national numbers . . . they are not good.

By some measures almost 1 out of every 4 new loans is headed for a future default.

This is simply unsustainable.   On many levels.   We will run out of solvent buyers.  We will run out of solvent banks.  And the capacity of the enormous American economy to absorb so much expense and bad debt will run out at some future, unknown point.

Don’t ask me for a prescription for today’s market to get better.

You won’t like it.

But I would remind you about my grandfather, Gilmer Moden, bought his first house in Albert Lea Minnesota.   When he bought his first house, he worked and saved and worked and saved and then put 25% down before the local bank, whose manager and bank president knew him, loaned him the difference.

The idea that in a declining market people can and should be buying homes with nothing down is a fallacy.  It will not work.  Someone is not helping people own homes, but rather helping them take huge bets on the velocity and direction of the housing market with other people’s money.

Could be!

This chart shows that there is a move toward a more balanced supply of houses:

In the cold, cold months of Winter the 43551 had about 10 to 13 months of inventory on the market and moving off the market.

That was too much obviously.

Now?

May MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) was 4.7 months.  It was 6.5 last month.

It always drops in the Spring and Summer (mine is a seasonal business – like picking strawberries).

But the current numbers are indicative of strong demand from buyers, the continuing popularity of Perrysburg real estate, realistic sellers, and sellers moving houses off of the market.

How about prices?

Behold the numbers:

Ignore the bank numbers – and median prices for closed Perrysburg homes are right – almost exactly – where they were last year in May.

In fact, they have declined from this past Winter, which speaks of sample size issues.  The trend is steady – perhaps we have reached the end of the pricing cliff in Perrysburg?