Perrysburg Blog

One of my favorite real estate writers posed a similar query in the Wall Street Journal’s excellent real estate blog – Developments.

James Hagerty posed the question: “Will the bank take my iPhone?”

Which is sobering – I have an iPhone.  You can’t have it.  You can’t take it.  It’s addictive and it’s mine . . . and I have a hard time imagining it being surrendered to a creditor.

Which made me do some thinking.

And then some investigation.

Since I deal with many homeowners today who owe the bank MORE than the market value – what can happen to their iPhones?

And their cars?

And their retirement savings?

And their other assets and possessions?

5 or so years ago this was a pointless, absurd question.

It just did not happen in Perrysburg.

Today – it’s a vital, important, timely question.

According to the Fed (specifically the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond VA) in their monolithic report “Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default:  Theory and Evidence form U.S. States) Ohio is considered a “recourse” state.

That means that lenders may have MORE remedies against a defaulting homeowner than just taking the house back in a foreclosure.

(N.B. – for this entire post, please remember that I am not an attorney and you should and are highly recommended to hire your own attorney to answer your questions!  You need a good, honest attorney . . . call me, and I will recommend one to you)

If I am a defaulting homeowner, I do not like “recourse”.

What is interesting about the lenders right of recourse in our state is that only in Ohio and Iowa does the lender have a very short period to seek recourse – and in Ohio, and thus Perrysburg, it is only for 2 years after the foreclosure.

Y0u can download their 50+ page paper yourself and read the gory details.  The financial equations on page 10 caused me to have a regression attack and revisit my finance classes at Duke University.   I was so shook up by this I had to go out and sell 5 houses today – but that’s another story . . .

2 years.

That is the time frame for recourse that your bank has to get more coins from you.

Lose your house to the bank . . . and they get an automatic deficiency judgment against you.

But they only have 2 years to collect it.

And many banks are taking 12 months to return phone calls right now – so what are the odds they will get your iPhone?

This recourse is usually obviated when a short sale is negotiated – which reinforces my belief that 2010 and 2011 will be the year of the Short Sale in and around Perrysburg.

Because then you will get to keep your iPhone.

A empty shell.

Crabs like them.

But they are terrible for helping homeowners to pay their mortgage.

And if you drive along Alt20 – aka Illinois Ave. in Maumee, you will see a lot of empty shells.

And “FOR LEASE” signs.

And vacant factories, offices, and businesses.

It’s a vivid reminder of what has happened and what has helped residential real estate to collapse in value.

The collateral damage from this one street’s empty and shuttered businesses and factories is felt in every subdivision in Perrysburg.  I know clients that have lost jobs in Crandenbrook and other Perrysburg neighborhoods who used to work on this street.

But now their jobs are gone.

You want reports of the economy getting better?  You want to know when the residential market is better?  You better go for a drive . . .

I get asked this question all the time – at least seemingly to me!

By my agents.   By my clients.  By my corporate clients.  My buyers.   By vendors and suppliers that work with or for me.

Everyone wants to know.

I repeat:  The downward price trend in Perrysburg real estate will not change, in my opinion, until people are making more money and taking it home.

The State of Ohio and the Federal Government can goose demand for a quarter or a year, they can push loans onto people who should not buy, they can do all sorts of tax credits . . . but the market will always trump the politician.

Always.

Look at this chart.

It is breathtaking in its simplicity.

We can talk all we want about jobs.  (Or “JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS” as our leaders put it)

We can call unemployed people “no longer seeking employment”.  We can tell part time employees that they are fully employed even as they march into Perrysburg Christians United for food to feed their families.   We can call part time seasonal workers fully hired back.

Not going to change the real estate market price trend in Perrysburg.

That chart above – it simply shows tax witholdings from working people and companies.

Zero Hedge Blog interprets it thus:

Even as the BLS and the administration are trying to cover up the real state of unemployment affairs using assorted semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed, and as companies provide adjusted EPS numbers, while actual earnings continue to collapse, the true barometer of spending, provided by the Financial Management Service, tax withholdings (net of refunds), continues to paint the truest picture of just what is really happening with both America’s consumer and the corporate world. And it ain’t pretty. On a rolling 12 month basis, individual tax withheld has dropped by nearly 8% YoY, from $1.42 trillion to $1.31 trillion, while company witholdings are down a whalloping 64%, from $274 billion to just under $100 billion! This is money that will never be used to pay down the skyrocketing US deficit, because both the US consumer and average US company are simply not collecting the required cash to line the Treasury’s pockets with the one traditional way to pad the deficit: taxes. Expect much, much, much more debt issuance in America’s short, medium and long-term future.

Wage payers- people with great full time jobs in Perrysburg are the ONLY way to get demand and prices improved.

Period.

Not wages paid to pizza delivery drivers or census takers or package wrappers for 30 days.

Wages paid to machinists and car assembly line workers and engineers and chemists.

Then Perrysburg will get better and your home will be worth more than it is today.

From a median closed sale price of $197,000 per house sold in Perrysburg in October 2007 the median price has been slowly declining.

Last month’s median price in the 43551 was $154,000.

A 21% drop.

That’s a lot.  Not as much as Toledo has seen.  Not as much as Maumee has seen (who needs the Ding Dong anyway when your house is worth more . . . ?).

32 closed residential sides last month.

The pain is coming from the huge number of bank owned/REO listings now coming onto the market.  I just put another one in Perrysburg on the market today.

A more interesting number, at least to me, is the MSI.

That’s the “Months Supply of Inventory”.

This is what I track.

How many sellers trying to sell?

How many sellers giving up?

How many buyers fighting for the same inventory.

I will give you the raw data here:

Note that we are at 8.5 months of inventory now, vs. 10 or 15 or more 2 years ago = a more balanced market.

Good homes are selling.   The better they look, the better they are priced – the better they sell.

More later . . .

A new listing -- Bank Owned, no less, in Perrysburg.

Great condition, 4 car garage, off alley access/drive/parking.  233 East Indiana.  Drop me an email or a call for today’s price.

Some real estate advice – from a guy who has sold a few houses and a few investments over the past 20 years.

If it sounds too good to be true – it is.

If someone who drives a Ferrari wants you to invest your money with him – run away.

If some sharp guy wants you to get you in early on a great real estate investment but, you know, the details are a little fuzzy . . . and he drives a Ferrari, in Perrysburg Ohio – run away.

(N.B. – this letter is PRICELESS.  Enjoy reading it before the U.S. Marshall takes it down.  You have to have chutzpah to make these Ponzi Schemes work!!!)

Now $50,000,000 is gone, 400 plus people are victims, and a couple of banks are in big trouble.  See this excellent Toledo Blade story for details.

Real estate investments often take time.  And effort.  And hard work.

They pay off with great appreciation if you buy right, great depreciation and tax benefits, great cash flow, and even -sometimes – amazing profits over the short term if you add or bring something to the deal.

One quick check on these birds would have told you if they owned real estate, were paying their rent on time at Levis Commons, or had legal problems.   I did – they were not even paying their office rent.

Think about that – people will invest their hard-earned money with some guys who are not even paying their rent.

Amazing.

You want to make money in real estate investing?

Beware the compelling, the likable, the personable . . . they seem to be suspect in the end.

Roll up your sleeves.   Do some hard work.  EARN your money and in so doing, you will keep it relatively safe.

I imagine that being a police officer is NOT an easy job.

You have the obvious stuff to contend with:  rude citizens, dangerous drivers, inclement weather, nasty domestic disputes.

And you have the non-obvious stuff to contend with:  office politics, union politics, city politics, etc.

Now, amazingly, you even risk being arrested and incarcerated for doing your job.  See Ottawa Hills and Lima for info.

But what if you have a reputation for quality policing.

For great police service.

For dedication and sacrifice (Kip Boulis, etc.)

That’s what the Perrysburg Police have.

We have a great police force.  It actually becomes an asset to the community.   People who call me and talk to me about Perrysburg real estate usually get around, if they are moving from Toledo, to mentioning that Perrysburg is safer and has less crime.

That salient factor is a HUGE reason to own real property in the City of Perrysburg and Perrysburg Township.

For that, reason alone – it’s positive impact on resale and residual value – our Perrysburg Police deserve not only their paychecks, but our thanks.

And you know how it is.

You have a really busy day.   Interruptions.  Urgent new tasks.   Explosions that you HAVE to deal with . . . RIGHT NOW.

Like my day yesterday.   My organized and prioritized task list?  Shredded.   Out the window.  Forgotten.

4 offers to handle.  A couple of new listings.  Urgent phone calls.

A good day – but a really busy one.

And I have about 100 clients/listings at any given time.  And a fantastic staff/team of experts to help me.

And that was MY day.

Which helps me put in perspective the absolute Keystone Cops Festival that is the short sale market.

Short sales?  Those are sellers trying to sell and NOT be foreclosed.  They are actually doing the bank a huge favour since being foreclosed ALWAYS costs the bank a lot more money.

I have been doing short sales for many years.  I teach others how to do them.  I am on the board of directors of the Certified Distressed Property Institute – THE best place for real estate agents to learn how to do short sales correctly.

And here, with the names removed to protect the innocent, is the status of a few of my 10+ short sale deals in the pending hopper:

1. Waiting on the bank.

2. Negotiator says this bank has over 300,000 open files.  Running behind.  No completion date in sight.

3.  No completion date – told to wait.

4. Waiting on new offer.  Previous buyers got impatient.

That’s just 4 deals that are stress producing.

I could tell you about the ones that I have closed or that are pending – they are always a great relief to the beleagured owners.

But EVERY short sale manager, team member, and processor is right now buried in applications.

Snowed in.

Shut in.

Steamrolled.

Some of these processors or negotiators have 500 open files on their desk.

My busy day?

It was nothing compared to what is happening in the short sale space.

There are 74.8 million dogs and
88.3 million cats in the US. 

Many people who have lost their homes have taken
their animals to shelters, or the less responsible ones let them lose, locked
them up in the backyard when they move away. 

People are to blame, not the
animals.

I know – the economy is in the tank.

I know – people are cutting back and cutting costs.

And some are even walking away from houses.  In the City and in the Township.

But don’t hurt your animals!

Sometimes THEY, the little innocent dogs and cats, get foreclosed too.

Some resources:

Toledo Humane Society.
http://www.toledohumanesociety.com/tahs/

Maumee Valley Save a Pet.
http://www.maumeevalleysaveapet.org/

Paws and Whiskers Cat Shelter
http://pawsandwhiskers.org/

Toledo Animal Shelter
http://toledoanimalshelter.com/

Wood County Animal Shelter
http://www.woodcountyhumanesociety.org/

These shelters are immune from the economy with more than enough space, money, and food.

RIGHT.

They are hurting too – and the pets they help are in more danger than ever.

You can help by adopting a stray (and by spaying and neutering your own pets).

One of RE/MAX Master’s REO/foreclosure listings recently generated this benefit:  a cute, nice, starving cat.  Renamed Hobbs by my daughter Hannah (I think Reo is a better name).  He was alone.  Starving.  And desperate for someone to love.

Shots and neutering were extra.  But we now have a great barn/outside cat.   

Somehow, and most amazingly, he has even won over Mr. Buster, our Maltepoo and the Jon Modene Team Mascot (he even has his own business cards!).   They are now friends.

Maybe some good will come out of the REO crisis . . .

There really is no accurate answer to that question.

There should be – but there is not.

What does “foreclosed” mean?

Is being already run through the Sherrif Sale in Bowling Green . . . . is that foreclosed?

What about homes that the owner has walked away from?

Homes that are foreclosed but no new deed has been prepared/recorded?

Homes that have an owner who has decided not to walk away, but to simply not pay anymore on the mortgage.

“Foreclosed”.  Simple word – many uses.

Right now there are hundreds of “foreclosed” homes in Perrysburg (city and township).

But there are just6 that are for sale on the MLS:

-10760 Avenue Road

-24230 Luckey Road

-7422 Starbright

-7296 Winding Brook

-24918 Fort Meigs

-1802 Whispering Way

-7315 Starlawn

As always, you can find all of the Perrysburg REO (”real estate owned” – aka bank owned) on my bank REO Google maps/MLS mash up at www.ToledoBankOwned.com

6 active MLS listings.

With many, many more to come.

Why?  How?

You might want to read the sad and troubling article in this weekend’s Washington Post about the loss of good jobs in Northwest Ohio, specifically in Perrysburg.   These foreclosures are the result of our jobs and economic policies.

Until those change . . . expect more tears.