Perrysburg Blog

Some houses are like Charles Foster Kane’s mythical mansion, Xanadu.  No man knows . . .

You are a regular Joe.  You read the Toledo Blade and see that your neighbor’s house sold for $X.

So, you assume, it really sold for $X.  Right?

No.  You CANNOT assume this.

Because of the various incentives that sellers can pay at closing to the buyers who buy their house, the “legal” sales price is not always the true price.

Don’t blame the Wood County Auditor.  They simply go with the number provided them, on a statement generated at the closing that the buyer signs.

But in this market there are many legal, but hard to verify “spiffs” that sellers make:

-Paying the buyer’s closing costs.

-Buying “extras” for the buyer.

-Paying an “allowance” for carpeting, decorating, or repairs.

-Paying, in some cases, the very downpayment money that the buyer needs.

You think that the recent sale indicates that your house has a certain value since your house is “better” or bigger or something else.

But they might not have sold for $X right in their pocket - they may have paid $10,000 for a carpet allowance and $6000 in seller paid closing costs and then thrown in $1000 for a new refrigerator.

It is common for me to get one or two or more calls a week asking me about the existence of any seller concessions from prior closed listings from appraisers trying to divine the “true” sales price for a new appraisal that they are working on.

I imagine for every call that I get . . . I don’t get 2 or 3 or 4 other ones.

What is the “true” sales price?

Do Realtors have a continuing obligation to keep such concessions private?

Do Realtors instead have a duty to report such concessions to help the market move and work efficiently?

How do these concessions effect the market (on FHA loans today ALL my sales have seller concessions)?

What are the relationship between these concessions and the movement of homes and the value of homes?

I have some ideas . . . what do you think?

It seems that any town of significance HAS to have a library.

Even in this digital, wired age.

Perrysburg has one - a GREAT one.

The local library is actually a beloved local institution in Perrysburg.

Live downtown?

You can walk or ride your bike.

Live further out?

Plenty of free parking.

It’s busy but quiet.

Big but small.

Loaded with reference works, computer terminals, FREE DVD rentals, and lots of new books.

Gripes?

Only a few - my wife always wants them open later on Friday night (they close at a too early 5:30).  They seem to be cutting back on new books - but it is a digital age, I suppose.

I wrote a few term papers there (in the old, pre-renovation building, complete with card catalogs!)

Best features?  Great staff, self-check out, you can hold books, and you can do a lot of “shopping and holding” on-line.

In fact, the main library user in our family, my dear wife, rarely if ever looks for books or asks for help - she does her research and reserving of books, etc. on line and then whisks in and grabs them.

Why buy or own a house in Perrysburg?

The Way Public Library is one great reason.

Down 40% . . .

Thanks for asking!

But I am having a great month . . .

Ouch.

Good homes?  They are still slowing.

Overpriced, underwhelming homes?  You can only imagine!

-44% drop in NUMBER of closed sales means that you need an agent who knows the market, knows how to market, and knows how to sell your home to a buyer, a bank, and an inspector.

I like stats.

This stat - brokerage market share - is more of an esoteric one that real estate professionals pay attention to.

It has nothing to do with prices and current valuations.  At least not much . . .  but it does say a lot about who is working, closing, marketing, and selling the most.

I therefore like this chart.

The real story - Just Call Jon if you want to get your Perrysburg house sold.

One thing that I dislike about my guild - the National Association of REALTORS - is that they always say “It’s a good time to buy a home!”

In a hurricane?  It’s a good time to buy a home!

In a depression?  It’s a good time to buy a home!

If there ever was a nuclear war - you can count on the NAR to say one thing . . . “It’s a good time to buy a home . . . before the fallout hits!”

By ALWAYS saying this one thing, at all times, and in all circumstances, they have pretty much shot the credibility of any Realtor who says . . . oh, you might want to buy a home now.

So I will not say that.

But I will point out that the predicted rise in interest rates that I have forecast for 2010 has begun.

Read about it here . . . at the Mortgage Bankers site.

Highlights:

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 658.7, a decrease of 16.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 786.0 one week earlier.
…
The Refinance Index decreased 24.1 percent to 2953.6 from 3890.4 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.3 percent to 267.7 from 256.6 one week earlier.
…
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.25 percent from 4.81 percent …

You can figure the rest out for yourself . . . rates are going up.  So you should, for once, listen to the National Association of REALTORS.

Toledo double taxing its’ citizens.

Bowling Green sending us a new corporate HQ.

Toledo laying off their police force.

All of these things tend to increase residential housing demand and values in our little town of Perrysburg.

Now I just learned that in one years time - which if you hadn’t noticed seems to arrive very much faster today than it did years ago - in April of 2010 the rules re. lead based paint are going to change.

Currently any Realtor selling any home built before 1978 has to provide a Lead Based Paint Disclosure to the buyer.   This is a trivial thing - for not once have I ever met a seller that had known that he had lead based paint in their house.  No one tests - so no one knows.

So the disclosure has what value?

Zero.

Nada.

None.

Year after year Realtors have been giving disclosures that say nothing to people who know nothing so that people can not read them but sign them anyway.

All at the behest of the Federal government.  (And you are worried about them running GM?)

But that is ALL going to change.

Starting on 4/22/2010 ALL regular consumers and normal Joes who buy investment property - duplexes, triplexes, 4-plexes, and even single family houses - for use as rental properties have to abide by the rules that giant “Market Rate” owners of thousands of properties have to abide by.

Such as:

-Testing each and every unit ($500+)

-Building and keeping and supply an audit-proof paper trail on all work done in each rental unit.  Fine for bad paperwork?  Up to $33,000!!!!

-Containing ANY work area in ANY pre-1978 rental unit just like it is an asbestos contamination zone.

-Only using  power tools with HEPA attachments in such units.

-Seeing that ALL personal that do ANY work in such units are trained and certified.

Painting more than 6 square feet of a pre-1978 built rental property?  You are most likely going to have to hire a professional  and PAY BIG MONEY.  Or else test and prove you have no lead in your unit.

How in the world does this help Perrysburg?

Think about it . . . the NEWER suburbs with NEWER rental properties are EXEMPT from this madness.

If you have a post 1978 rental property you can just smile at this insanity.  If you want to sell it, and I am your listing agent, we will make sure to point out in our marketing that it is LEAD FREE and EXEMPT from the new law.   This will, in my opinion, have a huge impact on values and investment property demand.  Most of Perrysburgs RENTAL units are post-1978.

I could go on . . . trainers need to be EPA certified, firms need to be certified, if a child comes into contact with dust from a building as they walk on the sidewalk . . . you cannot imagine what this is going to cost.

But not to the majority of Perrysburg rental units.

Duplexes “in the Boundary’s” are hit.

Some units in Southwood Park . . . maybe.

Three Meadows  - safe.

Most of the Township - safe.

The City of Toledo - in 10 months you won’t want to own so much as a stick of wood in that town if you are a property investor.

Not unless you are either a lawyer or a commercial painting contractor.

Do you see it?

Not many do.

I will share with you my current take on the Perrysburg/Northwest Ohio real estate market.

First - there are TWO markets.   Not surprisingly you may have already figured this out.  There is the REO/Bank Foreclosure market.  And then there is everybody else.

Two markets - in the same market space.

Competing with each other.  Interacting with each other.  Together making up one single market.

I believe that every single buyer and seller has to understand this in all its’ implications.

Second:  There is a giant elephant standing the corner of the Perrysburg market.

Many agents are willfully blind.  Many sellers are deluded.  Many people don’t want to talk about him.

But I will.

That giant elephant in the corner?  He is representing the lack of “move up” buyers in the current Northwest Ohio real estate market.

Move up buyers?  They have been Perrysburgs’ bread and butter.  People “move up” out of their Toledo/Sylvania/Maumee/Point Place home to a larger, better, more expensive house in Perrysburg.

These move up buyers made our market work.   They bought the $189,900 house.  The $320,000 house.  The $499,900 house.

Now we have a market in NWO full of first time buyers ($8000 tax credit) and full of investors (Heh!  This is better than my stocks!).     This dearth of move up buyers is NOT unique to Perrysburg - see this story.

I talk to many homeowners today - they CANNOT afford to sell and move up.

I can also report, in an anecdotal manner, of buyers who buy who tell me that this is their last house.  They plan on being buried in the yard of their home!   A mental shift has occurred-  houses in Perrysburg are no longer investments, or financial stepping stones on the upward path to The Sanctuary.  No - they are hard-nosed financial purchases that have to work in a families budget.

The upshot - the lack of move up buyers is felt especially hard in Perrysburg and other former “move up” suburbs (Sylvania, Monclova, et all)  and shows no signs of abating.

People who bought at the peak of the market have no reason to sell now and then “lock in” their paper losses.

People who bought and have mortgage problems?  They can’t move up.

Seniors and older buyers?  They are not buying up - they are buying down.

First time buyers?  They ARE buying in Perrysburg, but not in the traditional move up price ranges.

If you have a “McMansion” that you HAVE to sell - I can sell it.  It is salable.  But the price will have to be compelling to attract buyers.

I have sold close to 40 homes in the past 60 days - the highest number in my career.   But that is because I and my team are pricing to today’s market.

There really is no accurate answer to that question.

There should be - but there is not.

What does “foreclosed” mean?

Is being already run through the Sherrif Sale in Bowling Green . . . . is that foreclosed?

What about homes that the owner has walked away from?

Homes that are foreclosed but no new deed has been prepared/recorded?

Homes that have an owner who has decided not to walk away, but to simply not pay anymore on the mortgage.

“Foreclosed”.  Simple word - many uses.

Right now there are hundreds of “foreclosed” homes in Perrysburg (city and township).

But there are just6 that are for sale on the MLS:

-10760 Avenue Road

-24230 Luckey Road

-7422 Starbright

-7296 Winding Brook

-24918 Fort Meigs

-1802 Whispering Way

-7315 Starlawn

As always, you can find all of the Perrysburg REO (”real estate owned” - aka bank owned) on my bank REO Google maps/MLS mash up at www.ToledoBankOwned.com

6 active MLS listings.

With many, many more to come.

Why?  How?

You might want to read the sad and troubling article in this weekend’s Washington Post about the loss of good jobs in Northwest Ohio, specifically in Perrysburg.   These foreclosures are the result of our jobs and economic policies.

Until those change . . . expect more tears.

You never can seem to underestimate our neighbors to the north!

“Want Bass Pro - here it is!”

“You want OI’s new HQ?  Here it is!”

“You want a new UPS hub?  We can send that to you too!”

What is next?

I wonder about the wisdom of trading trash cans for police officers?

And I am hearing from others - homeowners in Toledo - that are none to happy.

I just saw this t-shirt:

Lovely.

Make enough people mad - and they will vote with their feet.

Toledo’s a big, big place.   Police levels like they now have are not really sustainable.

It’s almost as if they WANT to make people move to Perrysburg, Sylvania, and Monclova.

But who would be that foolish . . . . ?

All data for 2009 YTD thru April . . . .

Median price, sold listings:  $163,000

Number of homes sold, month of April:  21

Number of homes sold, April 2007:  43

Listings for sale, Perrysburg (Area 53), 410

Average Days on the Market for Actives:  139

Properties Sale Pending, April 30: 44

My comments:  The number of homes sold is down 51% in a 2 year period.  Back in 2007 the average Perrysburg listing sold for $206,000.   This year?  An amazing low median price of $163,000.

That represents a 43,000 decline in value for the average house.

Which means if you did not sell your house, your value went down by 21%.

Amazing numbers.

The trend has been bad for 2 years for Perrysburg.

Only sell if you NEED to sell.

If you NEED to sell, you need to ask the current market price.