Every House For Sale in Perrysburg!
Down 40% . . .
Thanks for asking!
But I am having a great month . . .
Ouch.
Good homes? They are still slowing.
Overpriced, underwhelming homes? You can only imagine!
-44% drop in NUMBER of closed sales means that you need an agent who knows the market, knows how to market, and knows how to sell your home to a buyer, a bank, and an inspector.
I like stats.
This stat - brokerage market share - is more of an esoteric one that real estate professionals pay attention to.
It has nothing to do with prices and current valuations. At least not much . . . but it does say a lot about who is working, closing, marketing, and selling the most.
I therefore like this chart.
The real story - Just Call Jon if you want to get your Perrysburg house sold.
All data for 2009 YTD thru April . . . .
Median price, sold listings: $163,000
Number of homes sold, month of April: 21
Number of homes sold, April 2007: 43
Listings for sale, Perrysburg (Area 53), 410
Average Days on the Market for Actives: 139
Properties Sale Pending, April 30: 44
My comments: The number of homes sold is down 51% in a 2 year period. Back in 2007 the average Perrysburg listing sold for $206,000. This year? An amazing low median price of $163,000.
That represents a 43,000 decline in value for the average house.
Which means if you did not sell your house, your value went down by 21%.
Amazing numbers.
The trend has been bad for 2 years for Perrysburg.
Only sell if you NEED to sell.
If you NEED to sell, you need to ask the current market price.
You know, stats / statistics are dangerous things.
Easily manipulated.
Slice the data in the time frame/price range/criteria you want . . . and you can make it say “BLUE”. Do it in the way I want and I can make the same data say “RED”.
Very dangerous. Deceptive. At least that’s what my statistics teacher at Duke told us before he taught!
N.A.R. (the National Association of REALTORS) comes out with some stats. Sales are UP in the past month!!! Yeah!!!
But comparing one month against another . . .
When you know that the current months’ “bump” is solely due to depressed REO assets selling . . .
When many local markets are cratering . . .
Highly dubious. Almost deceptive. Even though technically true.
But what of the big, national statistical picture? Can we look at ALL the numbers? What will that tell us????
Here is the picture:
National numbers are both up 4.7% but they are also down by 41.1% over the past year.
There is no honest way to say that sales are up.
The days of a million or 1.2 million homes selling per year in the USA? Gone. For a long time.
Pricing and your homes’ pricing strategy are all important in this market.
In Perrysburg and everywhere else apparently.
All markets are local.
They are all different.
I talked to a Long & Foster agent in suburban D.C. today. He said that 65% to 75% of the houses for sale in one of his marketing counties are “REO” aka foreclosed.
Perrysburg? Not even close.
The most recent Case-Shiller Home Price study came out on Friday. The average home lost 19% in their study. Which is made of matched pair sales in major metropolitan areas. Toledo is not included.
But Detroit is. And the average house value in Detriot is now what it was in 1997.
An “11 Year Drop”. A regression. A retreat. A decline.
What of Perrysburg? The median sold price for Perrysburg Single Family homes in March of 2009 was $146,450 according to our local MLS.
This represents a -25.7% decline in the past 24 months.
Which is a 1% drop in value per month over the last 2 years.
Which is a lot “better” than 1.5% per month that a lot of other markets have experienced.
If you NEED to sell, you need to understand these numbers.
These numbers might influence your decision.
Your houses’ potential buyer, appraiser, and lender understand them!
Here’s a breakdown of Perrysburg’s year-to-date sales activity:
Interpretation: How important is price?
Very important. Only sellers pricing to market have any hope of selling. If NO new homes/listings come on the market we have almost a one year supply of inventory right now. But of course - new listings are available every day.
Price is the king today, and will be for some time in Perrysburg.
How am I pricing? What am I doing to get 11 offers in one day like I did today? You can find out at www.JonModeneTeamMarketingPlan.com
Data pertains to Perrysburg City and Township single-family homes and does not include condo or townhome properties. MLS data from NORIS and does not include all area sales.
Why?
The casino is coming . . . details here.
Why is that bad news?
Inevitably, after a 2 year latency period, the incidence of crime against people and crime against property increases.
Every time.
Everywhere a casino is built.
You can count on it.
Build one in Wood County? Along the Maumee. Or in the “Golden Triangle”. And there will be negative, deleterious effects on the values of Perrysburg homes.
You can “BET” on it.
The scholarly paper on this is interesting reading. And sobering reading.
Here is the paper by Earl Grinols and David Mustard.
The casino lobby will never stop. They will try and try and try - stopping only when they have fooled enough people.
Things will be great. For a couple of years.
Then the neighborhoods closest to the “Crossroads Casino” will start to be negatively effected.
That negative trend will then metastisize and spread. From Starbright to Belmont to Three Meadows and beyond.
Theory? Supposition? Hardly. Read the literature. (page 14 shows how MILLIONS in lost property values is the result of the “jobs creating casino”.
Bring on a casino I say.
But build it RIGHT NEXT to the Toledo Correctional Institution on East Central.
Crimes against people.
Crimes against property.
Visitor crimes.
Criminal gambling.
Costs of addiction to gambling.
Increased rapes.
Increased police costs.
We neither need nor want these things in Wood County.
The day they get their way is the day we start to pay.
Not one bit.
There are going to be income phase outs.
There are going to be all kinds of government red tape requirements.
But don’t believe me.
Read the experts.
A real economist, James Hamilton, opines:
“If my hunch is correct, then all the house purchase tax credit will do is to modestly increase the number of houses sold each month… with no noticeable impact on house prices.
That doesn’t mean that the tax credit would have no impact. In particular, it may be a boon to some cash-constrained households that want to buy a house right now but can’t borrow enough. And it should help to reduce inventories of unsold houses by a bit. But if you’re hoping that it will make house prices rise, with all of the beneficial economic effects on home equity that such a rise might have… think again.”
Do we really want to be encouraging “cash constrained households” to buy houses they really cannot afford today?
Seriously.
Is not that “solution” somehow related, at least tangentially, to the problem we find ourselves in?
With a GM and Chrysler bankruptcy imminent . . . with declining real property values in Perrysburg . . . with our regional banks failing . . . might I suggest a tax cut? A payroll tax cut? A tax holiday? A tax cut for business? Something to goose employment?
I will encourage every American to pray for our leaders. Pray that they have wisdom. They are lacking it right now by borrowing or printing a TRILLION DOLLARS that we don’t have for things that will not work.
Well, that was fun.
If you were a buyer!
Median Prices in Perrysburg:
12/2008
Median Price, Active Listings - $199,900
Median Price, Pending Listings - $175,000
Median Price, Closed Sales - $180,000
409 Single Family and Condo Properties on the Market
29 Pending in Dec.
23 Closed in Dec.
11.4 months of inventory remains on the market as of 12/31/2008
Residual Inventory DOWN to 288 vs. 356 on 12/31/2006.
My comments:
More and more sellers are quiting. Just taking their houses off the market. Many are renting. Some are short - selling. Some are being foreclosed.
Many sellers are actually SELLING.
Amazing but true! You have to have some equity and a plan (and a good agent - but I digress!) and a healthy respect for current market conditions.
Here is the chart - what is the truth? The chart tells the truth.
Now, I am not one to dwell on the negative. I have been accused of being permanently cheerful. To that I plead guilty - for I am my father’s son.
However, I will always try to tell it like it is.
Always.
And some wonder if the publishing of detailed Perrysburg real estate stats and trends is a good thing to do. We must remain “positive” after all . . . .
It is a good thing to do. Do you want to be surprised?!?!
No.
But you OUGHT to be thankful.
Our little price retrenching is NOTHING compared to what is happening in other markets.
You may argue that the huge price drops in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and California are not harmful at all - not if you bought your house in 1990.
Well, alot of people bought in 2007 and 2006.
What is their market like? Observe these median price drops for just 1 year in So. Cal. -
Makes our -18% look very, very good.
Perrysburg - it never went up that high. It won’t crash down that low.
Something to be thankful for today.
