Perrysburg Blog

You know I love numbers if you read this blog.   More numbers!   More stats!  More graphs!

And you might think that I therefore believe that you figure out the Perrysburg real estate market by reading the statistics reported by the media.

But, the numbers aren’t always the numbers and here’s why!

Sales Prices

• May include seller-paid buyer’s closing costs and/or bonus commissions paid to buyer agents that distort the true property value.
• On FHA loans that close today . . . almost ALWAYS includes 3.5% credits to the buyer.
• May include major repairs and or other credits on cash sales.
• Often use funky/wonky things like tax prorating methods to shove more cash to a buyer.

Average Prices

• Can be influenced substantially (higher or lower) according to the mix of properties sold during the time period.
• In a small sample size – one or two large sales can skew the numbers.

Days On Market

• Can be gamed by pulling the property off the market for 30 days, then re-listing.
• Can also be gamed by changing the address spelling (North First Street vs. N. First Street or N. 1st Street, for example).
• Often covered up by switching brokers.

So . . . the numbers you read are not always truthful.

But I still love analyzing and sharing them!

Here is a tabular report of the MSI – Month’s Supply of Inventory – for Perrysburg as of 30 days ago.

Seasonality is stronger than it was 5 years ago.

20% or so fewer houses active on the market vs. 2 years ago and WAY down over 5 years ago.

8 months or so of inventory?  Pretty balanced in my opinion – as I am hearing from more and more buyers who are NOT getting the house they bid on – which was unheard of last year.

Why?  I only write about one listing – a “listing post” – when it’s A. In Perrysburg.   And B. Special.

So I will write about 1752 Horseshoe Bend.

Because it’s a great house.  3 beds, side-load garage, Corian counters, fenced yard, big basement ready to finish, and as neat and clean as a pin.   $207k tax value.  Today’s price?  $185k.

Oh, the location?

Check out this aerial photo – it’s the house/lot just above the “H” in Horseshoe Bend.   Oh – that’s Perrysburg High School off to the west . . . . so no excuses about it being too cold or wet to walk to school!

And I am not sure that I like it . . .

Because I just wrote an offer and got a home sale pending for the “child” of a client.

Yep.   Someone’s “little kid”.   Whose dad I sold a house for many, many moons ago.

Now buying a home with me and my team.  Taking out a mortgage.  Signing legal documents.

Great.

Which means:

1. Either I have been selling houses for over 20 years. Or,

2. There is a time warp and a dimensional shift has occurred since I don’t feel that old.

In any event it is always a compliment to be chosen to help a man/woman/family find and buy their new home.

It’s a compliment to have loyal, faithful clients – who often turn into friends.

But really – your kids are growing up way to fast!

Many buyers have a preference.

For some . . . it’s a deal breaker.

What?

WHICH Perrysburg elementary school zone the house in question is in . . .

Frank/Toth/Woodland/Ft. Meigs are all excellent and each has its’ backers and boosters and diehards.   But buyers should beware that distract boundaries for elementary schools change.   Several years ago many homes that were “in” the Ft. Meigs district were “out” due to overcrowding.   I often do not put the elementary school name in the advertising or online content for a Perrysburg single family listing because it is not guaranteed.

But my team and I do use this little tool.

You can too.   It’s the current listing of addresses in the Perrysburg School District keyed to elementary schools.

Perrysburg School Road Code Book

Trivia Test:  I can tell how long you have live in Perrysburg if you know what Pine and Elm were . . .

The numbers are firming up . . .

The casino is hiring . . .

The sun is shining nice and warm in October . . .

And my team and I are selling lots of property . . .

So what do the numbers say?

Fewer Perrysburg houses on the market.

More houses in Perrysburg pending sale.

More houses in Perrysburg closed.

And fewer houses in Perrysburg failing to sell.

What’s not to like about these numbers as seen on this chart?  (you can click on it for a full size view . . . )

A recovery?  I think not.   Not until more and better things happen on the employment front.   We are seeing natural market forces balancing out a bloated inventory.   I am seeing cash investors moving in to buy good deals (I personally wrote 4 cash offers today, and negotiated a cash offer on a Perrysburg listing . . .).   I am seeing sellers who can’t afford to sell call the bank, or lease the house out and move to Florida or S. Carolina anyway.

No.   Not a recovery.   But something better than what we had last third quarter in 2010.

Practice.

Preparation.

Organization.

Research.

All equal to success in lots of endeavors.   Like in baseball.   And in real estate.

Do it . . . and your ducks are in a row.

Fail?  You will whiff.  You will miss.  You will not win.

If you strike out in baseball . . . you get another at bat . . . usually.

In real estate?  You may lose the home you HAD to have.  The “perfect house”.

And, not surprisingly, real estate agent batting averages, proficiency, and skill set strength might seem to matter.

Especially in light of the new NAR report on recent sales.

If you peel away the data . . . you will find that the percentage of pending sales that blew up – busted out – failed to close . . . has DOUBLED.

That’s a HUGE increase.

I believe there are a couple of reasons:

1. More and more appraisal problems with pending sales.

2. More REO transactions which are very hard to get closed.

3. More part time / old timey real estate agents who don’t sell anymore and don’t swim in these treacherous waters anymore.

4. Short sales – the modern bane of buyers, sellers, and agents.

Add them all up . . . . and it’s a miracle MORE deals than the 18% reported are not blowing up!

(by the way – it was 9% of all pending deals blowing up just a year ago . . . )

What to do?

Get accurate market data.

Thinking about buying a short sale?  Open your eyes, get the facts, and get some help.

Only hire an experienced, competent, skilled agent.

You have a good year.

You sell a lot of houses.

You build your team.

You get to meet and work with a lot of great families and buyers and sellers.

But you did not get there by yourself.   And you certainly do not get to take credit.  And you should not trumpet “I am number 1!”

No.

But I do want to thank my dad – Dave Modene.  He was and is my example for salesmanship, service, and integrity.   I hope that “the apple did not fall” too far from his tree.    He was the top salesman for his company – setting and breaking national sales records.   Then they changed the rules to make it tougher for him . . . he won again anyway.   Then they promoted him.  And promoted him.  And finally he said “NO” . . . “I am staying in Perrysburg”.   He likes it here.   He even turned down a new “mega agency” they put together for him in Minneapolis – which if you are selling products to Lutherans is the second best place in America to be!

So – when I found this old ad . . . It caused me to realize the you should not forget to be thankful for the help and training and examples your father provided.  If I ever sell you a home or help you sell yours – I had a great teacher.

N.B. – My brother Dave – he has carried on the tradition too!