Perrysburg Blog

I have been doing A LOT of appraisals this week.

And that is good.  (We also are negotiating a HUGE number of offers – so I know that Spring has Sprung)

And the numbers are not good for sellers.

Sorry if this makes you sad.  But like all free markets, for every sad seller there is a glad buyer.  The January 2011 Case-Shiller numbers have been published this week.  They point to a very pronounced “double dip” in the housing market.

Perrysburg (and Sylvania, and Ottawa Hills, and Monclova/Maumee) has not been wiped out like many parts of other local towns have been value wise. (How bad?  I just had to tell an out of town owner that his house was worth -$10,000 today.  Think about that . . . !)

Remember my thesis – right now the numbers in Toledo are paralleling those in Detroit.

First the big, national Case-Shiller chart:

There is your double dip.

None of us are going to enjoy this ride.

Next the numbers.  Note the Detroit data.  Metro Toledo numbers feel about like that to me . . . about -8% for the year.   Remember your mileage may very based on your exact location, condition, floor plan, etc.

I will show you one more chart – just because I am into bad news today.

New construction?

Here’s your new construction!   It has hit the absolute bottom.  Amazing.

If you have the ability to get through the NYT paywall . . .

Charlie Engle is in prison.

“A few weeks ago, when the Justice Department decided not to prosecute Angelo Mozilo, the former chief executive of Countrywide, I wrote a column lamenting the fact that none of the big fish were likely to go to prison for their roles in the financial crisis.

Soon after that column ran, I received an e-mail from a man named Richard Engle, who informed me that I was wrong. There was, in fact, someone behind bars for what he’d supposedly done during the subprime bubble. It was his 48-year-old son, Charlie.”

Are being seen in Perrysburg.

It’s the annual “Spring Listing Season”.

And hope springs eternal.

Some of the prices I am seeing are more likely to work on Fantasy Island.   You see, I have to sell a house first to a buyer, then to a lender who will bring in an appraiser (skeptical) and an underwriter (downright nasty).  And if my price is not a 2011 price, but a reflection on what the market was like 4 years ago . . . well, I can already write that story without seeing it happen in real time.

I sold over 200 homes last year by pricing to market.   If a seller wants to live on Fantasy Island there are a lot of almost unemployed real estate agents who dabble in travel arrangements.   I will then get the call in 6 or 12 months when reality is a little more pressing and urgent.

In the mean time, to bolster my position on pricing, may I present the following chart?  

It illustrates that the “good, boom years” 1998 to 2006 or so in Perrysburg were really aberrations.  And that the collapse of new home sales (which was just announced this week) is a normal response to the huge release of “animal spirits” caused by the Fed, easy money, and decisions to push loans on people who really could not afford them – especially after we close all the factories in Northwest Ohio.

It is going to take a lot of time to work off the effects of that 12 year new home bull market.

Or a lot of new jobs and increased family income.

Why?  They take a lot of time.  They are a hassle.  They quite often don’t work.

But they are REALLY needed by a lot of people.  People with real needs, problems, and cute little doggies.  And they need help and that’s just what my Team and I do.

Well, I hate not being able to return all my calls every day.  Salesmanship 101 that IBM taught me back when I had to wear a white shirt with black wingtips . . .

But I could not return all my calls yesterday.  “Too many” appointments.  “Too many” listings.  I think I listed 3 or 4 houses which is a lot for one day – and which, along with an out of office home away ill team member – disrupted my call backs.

And made me think today that there may be a lot of new houses coming into inventory in Perrysburg.

Because everyone is “hitting the Spring market” or “timing it right with school”.

And that begs the question “can the market absorb” a lot of new houses for sale.

IMO?  Yes.

This chart shows the relative paucity of available listings in the 43551 right now (as of last quarter) compared to just a couple of years ago.

As a free market proponent, I am also certain that the market will be just fine without anyone helping it – if we just let it work.

About my favorite stock/solar company – FSLR.

They just bought a big piece of land in the Township.

Details here.

50+ degrees . . .

First day of “fake Spring” . . .

Kids walking home from school . . .

= mad house at Mr. Freeze on their first day.

You will see me and my wife, kids, and Mr. Buster (they have a doggy sundae!) there tonight.

It’s a ritual.

Is not the Robin that I saw at the bird feeder this weekend.

Is not the Redwing Blackbird that I saw on top of the bird feeder this morning.

And it’s not the relentless and cheering march of the sun’s position on the Geochron Clock on my office wall . . . as the vernal equinox approaches.

No.

The sure and true sign of Spring in Perrysburg?

They took the plywood winter doors off of Mr. Freeze this morning and began its preparations for its 2011 opening.

How is that for good news?