Perrysburg Blog

The condo front has been quiet in town.

No new projects.

And no news is not bad news in this case!

How many condos are for sale?  What are they going for?

IMO the usual unveiling of data rich charts would be akin to malpractice – the sample size is small and throws off the numbers in some months.

But . . . . here are some condo facts in Perrysburg:

1. Lots FEWER for sale.  It seems condo owners are better able to weather the financial holocaust in the broader real estate market than SFR owners.   And that just makes sense.

2. $$$/sq. foot of closed condos??  Holding steady.  Why?  See #1 above.  Plus with no new projects . . . there is less competition.

3. Months Supply of Inventory?  Right now there is about a one year supply on the market.  4 to 5 to 6 sell every month.  A few new ones come on the market.  12 months of inventory remains just about every month.  50 to 60 to 70 condos are on the market at any time – just depends on the time of year.

Raw data on MSI:

Not as healthy as it was – but much better than the single family scene in Perrysburg.

Interested in some in depth searches or alerts on new condos?  Go to the best MLS search site extant.  www.GoToledoHomes.com You can get a free account there with some pretty neat search and email tools.

Brought to you by, of course, the Jon Modene Team.

For over 2 years I have been saying that in our market the majority of home lending problems stems from the devastation of the job market.

Factory after factory has closed or moved in Northwest Ohio.

Small job shops in the center of Toledo – vacant.

Large plants in rural Northwest Ohio – closed.

Drive by Ford Stamping, Meto Kote, etc.  Empty.

The paychecks and jobs vanished.  Taxed out of existence.  Regulated out of existence.  Moved away to new locations with more friendly work rules, workers comp rules, legal rules, environmental rules, and tax rules.

We (Toledo/Detroit/Cleveland) got down first and fastest.

Now the “Left Coast” – Silicon Valley – is living our dream.

When the children of the upper class arbiters of taste and media in California and New York City have to start moving back home to live in mom and dad’s basement or den- that’s when you will see the major media talk about the wholesale rape of the American economy.

And it looks like that time arrived.

Last night.

At 7:00 PM.

On 60 Minutes.

With this amazing piece about the Abyss.

Absorption rates.  Like cap rates and price per square foot they are the numbers easiest to misuse, misquote, or play bad statistical games with.

So with great trepidation I share with you some absorption rates.

For Perrysburg houses.

$250,000 to $500,000 ONLY.

So it’s an upper end look at Perrysburg listings and sales.

Raw data:

Now in graphical, pretty picture format:

Upshot:

I see normal seasonal variations.

I see serious sellers only have success in this tough market.

I see 3 to 5% of the sellers in Perrysburg in this price range going pending each month.

You can do the math.

A rule of thumb on absorption rates in Perrysburg:

• Sellers Market: 1 to 4 months supply of homes
• Neutral Market: 5 to 6 months supply of homes
• Buyers Market: More than 6 months supply of homes

In September 2010 there were 154 active listings for sale in the $250-500K price range.

8 went under contract and 8 closed.

Overprice.  Under prepare.  And your house will sit.

And one thing I know that is not visible on this data set is the paucity of new construction homes in Perrysburg in the $250 – $500k range.

Some specs exist but they are very rare.

Almost all the sales activity for new construction is for contract homes.  So if you are a buyer parachuting into Perrysburg and you want to buy a brand new  house in the Spring – you will have to do a building contract and rent for 9 months or most likely settle for a “newer” resale.

The price and absorption effect of this trend is yet to be seen . . . . but current upper end absorption rates are very very low right now.

Which is one of the “curses of the real estate agent”.   I see vacant houses – and I see trouble.

In some parts of Northwest Ohio vacant houses have become a place to make withdraws from.  People remove the HVAC (yesterday in Holland).  They remove the plumbing (many times in Toledo).  They take out the appliances.  They don’t even leave a thank you card.

In Perrysburg I have had one – 1 – house vandalized.  It was a vacant house.  On a busy street.  And somehow someone removed the whole HVAC system.

Vacant houses make me nervous.

The monetized value of the house is being wasted.

The house is vulnerable to all sorts of mischief (see above).

Your insurance agent is going to get nervous (that might be my brother – Dave Modene – and we don’t need to make him nervous because then he may decline your claim . . . ).

All in all it’s bad to have a house remain vacant.

Here are my recommendations:

1. Unoccupied does not mean vacant.  If it’s furnished, heated, and you come back once in a while it’s not vacant.

2. Definitely tell your neighbors where you are and where you will be and who should be in your unoccupied/vacant house.   They are your best defense against property problems.

3. Winterize your house.  It costs $150 or so.  It saves you $20,000 when the pipes freeze after the power goes out or the circuit breaker to the furnace trips off on Jan. 22 at 2 AM when it’s 2 degrees out.   You have to winterize your house on FAITH.  I truly believe that the heat is going to fail on all vacant our unoccupied houses.   I have seen it happen.  I am a true believer.  Therefore all vacant houses in my control get winterized.   It’s painful to do but less painful than the busted pipe clean up.

4.  Find the highest and best use of the empty/vacant house.  It may be as a rental.  It might be to price it to the current market and invest the equity.  It may be to move back into it.  But find the best use . . .

Winter is coming.  I can feel it in the air.  Your real property is empty in Perrysburg?  Get it ready.

Trivia:  Want to read about the most amazing vacant house in America?   Read about Hugeutte Clark’s fortune and mansions here. And here. Video here.

Empty houses are sad houses . . . .

No doubt about it – pictures sell homes.

I am pleased and excited to announce the newest marketing tool in real estate – the Gigapan system. This is the first test image- and as I get better at it . . . you can look for these on many of my new listings (and Perrysburg scenes . . .)

Enjoy!

Is found right HERE.

Mr. Clark said he did not know what to do. “I’m kind of hoping I have a place to live,” he said. “Now, who knows?”

My advice – get an expert to help you.

Which is the top 25 most dangerous neighborhoods to be in.

Yeah.

We did not make it.

But 3 Ohio cities/neighborhoods did.

You can read it here at walletpop.com.

Perrysburg has dangerous neighborhoods.

In some of them your car may get some leaves or grass clippings blown on it.

Or in other areas you may be accosted by dangerous survey takers, cookie sellers, or religious proselytizers.

Danger is, you see, relative.

At least in Perrysburg. . . .