Perrysburg Blog

The pies have been picked up.

The snow is falling.

The year has sped on by.

What is left?

That would be the final 2009 Real Estate Stats for my little town of Perrysburg.

Come back after 12/31 and I will show/tell you the “real” truth.

What was the highest priced sale?

The lowest priced house?

The average appreciation/depreciation?

The number of houses in default as of 12/31?

The number of days until Mr. Freeze opens again?

These are vital numbers – at least to me.   The last one is vitally important to my youngest child, Hannah, and our dog Buster.  Something to do with ice cream . . .

Which meant that my clients were all invited to pick up a Schmucker’s Pie . . . . (which is highly rated it seems).

And not many could resist!

Since they are acknowledged to be the best pies in Northwest Ohio . . .

(N.B. Cherry was the number one pick . . .)

Had a great time – meeting about 100 “old clients” and friends.

And many asked me . . . . well you know what they asked me.

“When will the market in Perrysburg turn around.”

The short answer was . . . not now.

The long-winded, blogy answer is when Dr. Holly Beard is out of a job.

Who?

What?

Dr. Holly Beard.

You and I just hired her.   With our precious tax dollars.

She now works for the “Ohio Housing Finance Agency”.

And her job is to do research on how to help “deeply understand the affordable housing world.”

Seriously.  Having an entire AGENCY is not enough.  We need MORE state employees.

And the New OHFA Office of Affordable Housing Research Director (the aforementioned Dr. Holly Beard) is going to do some research on “finding the number of homeless or newly homeless in need of permanent support for housing.”

Which I, being an MBA and a 20 year veteran of the housing business can translate for you to English:  “We are going to help people who are homeless buy homes with your tax money.”

Now you think about that.

Because I have.

Homeless men don’t need to increase their rates of home ownership.  They don’t need help with mortgages.  They don’t need studies.  They need help.  Usually with drug and alcohol issues.  With a job.  With someone to help them make wise choices.

But they DO NOT NEED a house with a mortgage.   Especially one funded by your tax dollars.

Because I can practically guarantee you, with no research costs, that each and every homeless person you give a mortgage to is going to be a “future foreclosure” as we call them.

I am certain that the people at OHFA mean well.

But as long as it is a government mission to get homeless people mortgages, this current real estate crisis is not over and it seems to be increasing in volume and pain.

The homeless could use a pie I suppose.

So, if you are at the Cherry Street Mission tonight – enjoy the Schmuckers Pies from the Jon Modene Team.

They are mortgage free.

A joke?

A cry for help?

The owners of the “D.C. Ranch” who actually live in Perrysburg Township are advertising a new use for their defunct building.

(By the way  . . . what is the problem with people who actually LIVE IN Perrysburg and try to put these smut shops here?  In the SAME town you live in?  Shop in?  Have a few friends who live here?  Usually the mob from Cicero is the group that brings in the hookers and smut and crime and shady lawyers.  But people who live here have recently been smitten with this business model.  Amazing.)

Wow.

Right across the street from Levis Commons.

That’s being a real nice neighbor.

Study after study shows that such porn shops help lower everyone’s property values and help to increase crime.

Maybe Perrysburg needs more rape and divorce.  This will help!

You can call the mayor or the township trustees or the other officials whose job it is to protect the citizens of Perrysburg with a modicum of zoning.

It is here.

Winter.

I know -  not officially until 12/21 or something like that.

But in real estate – Winter has arrived.

Things SEEM to slow down (although I think I sold 6 houses yesterday . . . so much for slow!).

Many Perrysburg homeowners become concerned.  “Why are showings so low this month?”  Well, because it is a slow time of year.   Evenings are filled with events.  Parties.  Get togethers.  Travel.  Swine flu.   Norovirus.

And it is cold.  And snowy outside.

But here is what you should consider:  People are still looking at homes in December and January.  When it is dark at 5PM in Perrysburg it is still bright on your computer.

They are looking online.

My team tracks all our online marketing.  Our web hits.   Our page views.  Down to the number of photos viewed on our listings on Realtor.com.

Trust me – people are looking at houses in December.

Just online.

Loan apps are up according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Rates are down.

People in Perrysburg are just smart enough to know that you can look in your slippers and pajamas right now.

I get asked this question all the time – at least seemingly to me!

By my agents.   By my clients.  By my corporate clients.  My buyers.   By vendors and suppliers that work with or for me.

Everyone wants to know.

I repeat:  The downward price trend in Perrysburg real estate will not change, in my opinion, until people are making more money and taking it home.

The State of Ohio and the Federal Government can goose demand for a quarter or a year, they can push loans onto people who should not buy, they can do all sorts of tax credits . . . but the market will always trump the politician.

Always.

Look at this chart.

It is breathtaking in its simplicity.

We can talk all we want about jobs.  (Or “JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS” as our leaders put it)

We can call unemployed people “no longer seeking employment”.  We can tell part time employees that they are fully employed even as they march into Perrysburg Christians United for food to feed their families.   We can call part time seasonal workers fully hired back.

Not going to change the real estate market price trend in Perrysburg.

That chart above – it simply shows tax witholdings from working people and companies.

Zero Hedge Blog interprets it thus:

Even as the BLS and the administration are trying to cover up the real state of unemployment affairs using assorted semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed, and as companies provide adjusted EPS numbers, while actual earnings continue to collapse, the true barometer of spending, provided by the Financial Management Service, tax withholdings (net of refunds), continues to paint the truest picture of just what is really happening with both America’s consumer and the corporate world. And it ain’t pretty. On a rolling 12 month basis, individual tax withheld has dropped by nearly 8% YoY, from $1.42 trillion to $1.31 trillion, while company witholdings are down a whalloping 64%, from $274 billion to just under $100 billion! This is money that will never be used to pay down the skyrocketing US deficit, because both the US consumer and average US company are simply not collecting the required cash to line the Treasury’s pockets with the one traditional way to pad the deficit: taxes. Expect much, much, much more debt issuance in America’s short, medium and long-term future.

Wage payers- people with great full time jobs in Perrysburg are the ONLY way to get demand and prices improved.

Period.

Not wages paid to pizza delivery drivers or census takers or package wrappers for 30 days.

Wages paid to machinists and car assembly line workers and engineers and chemists.

Then Perrysburg will get better and your home will be worth more than it is today.

Seriously.  Homes values are not up 13% in Perrysburg.

Zillow issues a press release . . . . and the meme is born.

But the data does not bear out global warming . . . I mean rising prices in Perrysburg.

Link.

Yes?

Right?

Isn’t that the new word on the street.

Well, let’s dive into some of the data.

I have postulated all along, at least if you have read my blog, that the current and expanded Federal House Buying Tax Credit Stimulus Boondoggle (aka FHBTCSB) will do nothing to improve the position of sellers/homeowners today, and will hurt future sales, deform demand, mask market effects, and  . . . . in the process help to saddle our kids with debt and further bankrupt our nation.

Some have just written that Perrysburg real estate is looking up – booming in fact.

Let’s see:

Here is 2 years of MLS market data.

Let’s just look at November 2009 vs. November 2oo8.  ONLY Perrysburg single family homes.

November 08 – 340 houses for sale.   21 houses placed under contract.  20 houses closed.  Median asking price $204,900.  Median price of listings that went into contract $179,900.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2008 was $242,950.

Now let’s look at the loosey-goosey tax credit fueled, rebounding market in November of 2009:

November 09 – Only 241 houses for sale.   22 houses placed under contract.  27 houses closed.  Median asking price $220,000.  Median price of listings that went into contract $187,450.  And . . . the median price of the houses that closed in November of 2009 was $212,950.

Fewer for sale.

Only 1 more house “pending”.

7 more deals closed.

But … the houses are selling for $30,000 less on average.

Hello?

This is helping?   This is great program?  And the money to pay it . . . has yet to be repaid with interest?

I will note in passing that the average price per square foot has dropped from $99 to $91.

Now – the caveats.  This is a month vs. month snap shot.  The economy is different.   The numbers we are comparing are small.  The trend is more important than a slice of monthly data.

But a rebound?

A better market?

Improved prices and more equity?

Insane.

It’s not happening.

And it won’t until the jobs/employment situation is FIXED.