Perrysburg Blog

Let me continue . . .

There are always, in every market, a subset of residential real estate consumers who WANT to own.

They do not want to rent.

They usually dislike living in apartment buildings.

But they simply can’t get a loan.

Bad credit.  Recent bankruptcy.  No money saved.   But good income.

(Hint: Do you think this category of buyer will be increasing in America???)

These buyers will do ALMOST ANYTHING to get into a house.

House has a crazy floor plan?

House has a weird lot?

House has cat urine soaked into the floors?

“Well . . . If it means I don’t have to rent . . . ”

These buyers end up doing a “lease purchase”.

Westhaven/John Ulmer absolutely preyed on these people.

Promising repairs.

Promising clear title in a year or two.

Promise. Promise. Promise.

I met with several of these folks who ended up doing a lease purchase/land contract/pie in the sky deal with Westhaven.

ALL were taken advantage of.

Buyers today who really, really want to own but cannot afford to need to be very careful.

Here are a few caveats for lease purchase inclined buyers to consider:

• The contract you are signing is legally binding.  Do NOT sign it without a good attorney approving it.
• The money you are paying is almost always not refundable.   Make sure that you can afford to lose it.
• If you cannot qualify for a loan now – what makes you REALLY sure that you will in 12 or 24 months.  Something has to change in your financial behavior for that to happen.
• If the seller loses the home in foreclosure -  you will be evicted and ALL of your money is lost.
• If you lock in a purchase price now – you may have to pay WAY above market when you close.
• Please, please, please if you are a buyer – do a check on the character/history of the seller.  Maybe you DON’T want to be in business with him – because with a lease purchase, you are now his partner!

Lease purchase deals WORK.  If done right.  If sunlight is used.  If both parties are honest and the structure of the deal is fair.

But they often don’t work.   And the broken wallets and lives they cause are very, very sad to see.

John Ulmer was sentenced to prison yesterday.  The Blade had the story.

Ulmer was the criminal mastermind behind “The Westhaven Group”.

You can substitute the name Madoff, Transcontinental Savings, Bell & Beckwith, etc. for Westhaven.  They all work the same.   Someone who is wicked and venal and selfish gets control of someones money.  Then they spend it on themselves.

A Crime of Persuasion.

Where a bank robber uses a gun, Ulmer used his tongue.  To separate the money from the victim he promised and sold and scammed and lied.  And it seems to work.

In Perrysburg the Westhaven Group had a few homes.  Bought with stolen money they then rented them out to people who could never hope to qualify to own them.   With no real equity or ownership stake, some of them fell into disrepair.

And since Westhaven/Ulmer was operating during a “hot market”, the owner homes that seemed to be able to be used by him with his crooked owner financing scheme were homes that were critically flawed or had some other sales-killing problem.

I met some of these “owners” – they were also victims too.   Whatever they paid is gone and their supposed ownership interest never existed.   No one used a lawyer.  No one used title insurance.  No one used a good agent.

My experience is that real estate deals that EXCLUDE title exams, good attorneys, good agents, and daylight and that “breaking” the norms of the current market are just those deals that need close and careful examination.

Ulmer?  10 years in prison.

We’ll see.  I have learned that if you have really good and expensive lawyers, you tend to get a better deal in court.   I am sure that he has good ones. And well paid ones.   In the Westhaven saga, it seems that everyone is getting paid . . . but the ripped off investors.

What is even more sad is that all throughout the trial, investigation, etc. I believe the Ulmer has been still selling his skills and tools to the public.

Imagine that.  The audacity.

Looking at his website is an amazing experience.

I think this quote from Ulmer is award winning: “The only thing that separates you from money is knowledge. I have knowledge, that is why I have money.”

The spinning logo of money on his face:  perhaps the most honest thing in the website.

He has plenty of endorsements on the “Testimonial” page!

I wanted to let you know how much I appreciated you instruction, helpfulness, and hospitality. This was my first real estate seminar I’ve attended. I was not sure what to expect, but some friends had clued me in on how some seminars are merely a vehicle to sell more products. I can truly say that the weekend was one of learning and growing for myself and for my company. Your way of doing our business is one to closely pattern, and I intend to do just that with my new year and a half old company.
- Michael Eigsti, Midland MI

I sure hope that Michael did not mean that – unless he wants to go to jail too!

And until recently you could still sign up for a seminar.

I have a feeling Ulmer’s next seminar will be during visiting hours.

At a prison.

Don’t look for restitution.   The money is “gone” (I mean hidden in the Turks and Caicos!)

And don’t look for shame.

Ulmer cannot blush.

Here’s a breakdown of Perrysburg’s year-to-date sales activity:

• 249 homes available
• 43 homes pending or contingent
• January Closed Sales = 25
• February Closed Sales = 25
• Total YTD Closed Sales = 70
• Total listings that were “expired” and failed to sell YTD = 74

Interpretation:  How important is price?

Very important.  Only sellers pricing to market have any hope of selling.  If NO new homes/listings come on the market we have almost a one year supply of inventory right now.  But of course – new listings are available every day.

Price is the king today, and will be for some time in Perrysburg.

How am I pricing?  What am I doing to get 11 offers in one day like I did today?  You can find out at www.JonModeneTeamMarketingPlan.com

Data pertains to Perrysburg City and Township  single-family homes and does not include condo or townhome properties.  MLS data from NORIS and does not include all area sales.

One of my favorite authors/speakers is Seth Godin.

Smart.  Forward thinking.  Sold a “dot.com” he started to Yahoo.com at the very top of the market.  Now he just does what he wants.  An occasional seminar (life changing if you are interested in marketing – and I have spent a whole day with him), weird books (The Purple Cow) that always make you think, and probably whatever else he wants to do.

Confession #1:  He just had a  seminar/meeting in London that I was thinking about going to. . . . but I did not even dare ask the Wife Unit.  She would not have let me go without someone else who shall remain nameless tagging along.  Exploring the Lake District while I slaved away in a conference room.

Which right now seems to be making pithy observations about agents, agency, and the interface of agents, consumers, and technology.

Like a blog comment he wrote this week found here.

Which made me think . . . that a whole lot of the old “Perrysburg War Horse” Realtors and Brokerages are gone.

Vanished.

Moved away.

Retired.

Passed away.

Sold out or up or closed shop.

One local firm has 4 listings.  Another one 4 or 5 agents with 2 listings between all of them.

Why?   I think Seth Godin is right.   Realtors have to hyper-specialize to succeed and to thrive and to even survive.

Confession #2:  I have a very rare library of old MLS books.

A historical record of data on past, long ago sales.    Sales and data so old that they are no longer on our on-line MLS.

I use it often to save time and get old data on new listings I take.   Most times I am mentally prepared to see that of the 9 listing agents per page from the dusty old archives that almost all of them are gone.

8 out of 9.   From not that long ago.

Gone.

Godin’s right.   Specialize and provide valuable counsel or get out.

Me?  I am a Seth Godin believer.

• 1.8% of all U.S. homes are in foreclosure
• Therefore, 98.2% are NOT in foreclosure
• 33% of all owner-occupied homes don’t even have a mortgage!
• 18% of all U.S. mortgages are upside with 2/3 of them located in 7 states (Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia)
• 2.8% of all U.S. mortgages are three or more months in arrears.
• There are 18.6 million vacant homes in the U.S. now.
• 25 MLS closed sales, single family, in Perrysburg, February 2009
• 305 MLS closed sales, single family, in Lucas and Wood Counties, February 2009
• Average Toledo Board of Realtors agent sold just .25 of a home in February 2009
• Jon Modene closed 11 transactions in February, 2009.
• Perrysburg number of listings for sale on MLS, end of February, 2009 = 305
• Perrysburg number of listings that went “pending” in February, 2009 = 30
• Perrysburg median SOLD price, February 2009 = $172,000
• Total number of houses for sale in Lucas and Wood Counties in February 2009 = 4838
• Total number of houses that went pending in Lucas and Wood Counties in February 2009 = 363
• 11.1 Months supply of inventory in Wood and Lucas Counties

When Will The Market Thaw??

I am asked by about every client or customer: “When is it going to turn around (in real estate)?”

I don’t know the answer.

I used to say “If I did have the answer to that question I would be working on Wall Street” – but that’s not a good place to work anymore!

Here’s what I think:  when the number of new bank owned properties starts to dry up, then the market will change course.

But you must know this – Fannie, Chase, Freddie, Bank of America, et al have all had a moratorium on new foreclosures and evictions for the past 60 days – and that “REO HOLD” has NOT slowed the pace of new REO properties coming on the market.

Why?

The casino is coming . . . details here.

Why is that bad news?

Inevitably, after a 2 year latency period, the incidence of crime against people and crime against property increases.

Every time.

Everywhere a casino is built.

You can count on it.

Build one in Wood County?  Along the Maumee.  Or in the “Golden Triangle”.  And there will be negative, deleterious effects on the values of Perrysburg homes.

You can “BET” on it.

The scholarly  paper on this is interesting reading.  And sobering reading.

Here is the paper by Earl Grinols and David Mustard.

The casino lobby will never stop.  They will try and try and try – stopping only when they have fooled enough people.

Things will be great.  For a couple of years.

Then the neighborhoods closest to the “Crossroads Casino” will start to be negatively effected.

That negative trend will then metastisize and spread.   From Starbright to Belmont to Three Meadows and beyond.

Theory?  Supposition?  Hardly.  Read the literature.  (page 14 shows how MILLIONS in lost property values is the result of the “jobs creating casino”.

Bring on a casino I say.

But build it RIGHT NEXT to the Toledo Correctional Institution on East Central.

Crimes against people.

Crimes against property.

Visitor crimes.

Criminal gambling.

Costs of addiction to gambling.

Increased rapes.

Increased police costs.

We neither need nor want these things in Wood County.

The day they get their way is the day we start to pay.

Which I only rarely do.

For special Perrysburg properties.

Unique ones.

Different ones.

Like this one at 872 Cherry Street in the heart of Perrysburg.

It has the lot that everyone wants – a “272″.

272 feet deep.  Which gives the owner room to do many, many things.

Farm.  Garden.  Throw a ball.  Add a pool.  Add a pole barn type out building (a BIG shed).  Practice with your 9 iron.  Lots of possibilities.

BUT  -  these “272′s” often come with an old, functionally obsolescent house with an old, old floor plan.

Not here.   A few years ago a builder I know bought one house, sitting on 2 lots.  He knocked it down.  Resplit the lots.  And custom built 2 homes.   This is one of them.

Sideload garage.

$232,500.

Big, bright rooms.  First floor master.  Finished basement.

Even some soft contemporary flair.

All of which makes this house very special.

More photos and details here.

Perrysburg – a great place to live.  And a great place to sell houses!

Whew!

That is GREAT news.

What?  You have not heard?

Mayor Finkbeiner is set on reducing (elimination will come later) the tax credit that is given to people who live in one city (Toledo) and work in another (Perrysburg).

When this plan of sheer brilliance is put into effect, many will be facing DOUBLE taxation on their incomes – paying 2 city income taxes.

What will these people do?

Since Lucas County is not a Gulag – they will leave.

Vote with their feet.

Move to the municipality they are working in already.

And thus escape the double taxation.

Brilliant!

As any economist knows  (we hope) – when you increase demand for Perrysburg real estate (caused by the Toledo diaspora) – the value of same will increase.

With the same dedication to economic development that pushes most new real projects into Wood County by too many taxes, rules, regulations, and red tape, soon their will be new demand for Perrysburg housing.

We will take the U.S. Marines.

Fed/Ex.

And now your residents.

Thank you Mr. Mayor!