Perrysburg Blog

Sadly there is no Case-Shiller study for Perrysburg.

Our market is too small.

And too nice.

And too friendly.

But I digress.

The Case-Shiller study of residential home prices, which I have written about before, is a matched pair study.

Only the exact same houses are included, when they have sold and resold.

So it is pretty accurate as least as far as the lack of “adjustments” that applied by appraisers when trying to make different houses look and act and price the same.

But I digress.

Which I am doing a lot of this month when thinking about the Case-Shiller numbers.

Why?

Because I operate on a couple of standard assumptions.

1. You reap what you sow.

2. Practice and hard work make you succesful, not MLM’s.

3. Detroit = Toledo.  At least as far as real estate values go.  Generally.  Mostly.

And the 12/2008 Case-Shiller numbers say that Detroit real estate lost, on average, 21.7% in value during the previous 12 months.

The latest Case-Shiller chart?  Reminds me of Deer Valley in Utah.  And that’s a beginner hill there!

Which kind of takes your breath away.

And makes you want to digress and diverge and divest and maybe even weep.

But – I have to remember and remind my clients that Detroit is not Perrysburg.  And that if you waited to buy, congratulations, you just made more money.  And that you and your 401k probably would be ECSTATIC over a 21.7% decrease.

But still – that’s a huge, unprecedented decline.

Is it over?

Are values firming up?

Time will tell.

I don’t think that there is another -21% left to give.

But then almost no one thought this COULD happen 4 years ago.

Houses that priced right.

Houses that are in the right condition.

Houses that are therefore IN DEMAND.

These houses – SELL.

Immediately.

This one, sold for just about full price, to the first buyers through.

And it’s not a cheap house.

Not at all.

Why?  What with all the bad news out there . . .

It was priced right.  It was in perfect condition.  It had a great floor plan.  And the seller worked with me to get it right.

Boom.

One showing.   One offer.  Gone.

Two questions that I am ALWAYS asked:

1.  When will it sell?

2.  What do you do to market my house?

I cannot answer the first one – I can only guess.  (Unless I am the buyer!)

The second question?  I can now easily and digitally answer.

Here: The Jon Modene Team Marketing Plan.

I would insert a live link from www.issuu.com but it only likes Blogger.  Not Wordpress.

What a neat website Issuu is – you can look there in the future for all my listings’ brochures and lots more content.

Marketing is ALL about getting lots of buyers into the home.   If it does not work getting traffic, I get rid of it.

Why not use the Homes Guide?

Well for 20 years it was a real estate institution.   At least around here.

Pick up one at the Kroger – and you have 200 pages of ads.

But in recent months it has shrunk and shrunk to just 10 or 15 pages.

Last Friday – they cancelled their print run.  Closed.  Kaput.

Why?

The internet killed it.  Who wants to look at  page after page and search on paper when their are better websites that are more up to date?

No one did.   Now it is dead.

You don’t have to pay anyone money!

You don’t have to go to the Wood County courthouse – although the Sherrif personally runs the auction.

You don’t have to drive around and look for “Bank Owned” or “Foreclosure” sign riders.

Not any more.

You can just go to my newest website- www.ToledoBankOwned.com and you will see a map.

A simple map of Northwest Ohio.

But it is so much more than a regular map!

It’s a Google Map “mash-up” that combines all of the current Realtor listings for bank owned, HUD, and REO status listings.

You can pick you area or look at them all.

Toledo looks a little crowded, n’est pas?

Anyway, it only shows active listings.  The REO’s that are sold or pending or off the market don’t show up.

So this is a tool for buyers and investors.

I hope that you enjoy it!

That was quite a windstorm last week in Perrysburg.  Wow!  Out at my house it gusted to almost 55 mph.

The power went out a number of times.

And each time – our generator kicked in.

Silently.

Automatically.

And without any intervention from me.

If you have a finished basement . . . . this can save you $15,000.

If you have an extended power outage – it can keep your home from freezing.

In my mind, the home generator is not a luxury, but out to be part of a standard fit out for many houses.

I am noticing more and more of them as I look at newer homes.

(You can’t help but hear the advertisements on the radio, too)

They look like a central air system compressor box – sitting outside next to the house or condo.

A close look will show that they have a fuel hookup coming in – either natural gas or propane.  That’s how they run.  The Guardian models start up automatically once a week to keep themselves ready to run or lubricated or just because it’s fun, I guess.

This is the one at my parents condo.   They were so impressed with my generator . . . that they had to copy me.

It runs the whole house when the power goes out – as long as you are not welding and vacuuming and using the electric range for broiling all at the same time I imagine.

Get one and you will not believe how you ever lived without it.   No noise.  No fuss.  No muss.  No hassle.   It simply powers your house.

Resale value?  I have never done a resale with one of these new models.  But I imagine that it will be a great resale feature.

It sure beats a flooded basement!

Our local paper was kind enough to interview me for a comment on their story about the recent NAR housing price numbers - which show that Toledo is now a very, very affordable town to buy a home in.

One number that I shared with them was the huge price drop in one zip code in Toledo.  A 75% price drop in January 2009 vs. 2007.

How can that be?

75%???

The answer is that over 50% of the sales in the City of Toledo in January were distressed sales.

So these numbers – these horrible numbers are skewed.

Because of WHO is selling and WHY they are selling.

After all, it’s not “regular owners” who are selling.

It’s the banks that they now own!

Median prices of homes in Toledo – which depending on how you measure them – can actually NOT indicate their current value.    These numbers represent the average disposal prices that it takes to clear them in this market in view of their status as assets that need to be disposed of by financial owners.

A better measure of value is the Case-Shiller index of RESOLD HOUSES.

More on that later . . .

Sellers need not despair.  Not now.

Not one bit.

There are going to be income phase outs.

There are going to be all kinds of government red tape requirements.

But don’t believe me.

Read the experts.

A real economist, James Hamilton, opines:

“If my hunch is correct, then all the house purchase tax credit will do is to modestly increase the number of houses sold each month… with no noticeable impact on house prices.

That doesn’t mean that the tax credit would have no impact. In particular, it may be a boon to some cash-constrained households that want to buy a house right now but can’t borrow enough. And it should help to reduce inventories of unsold houses by a bit. But if you’re hoping that it will make house prices rise, with all of the beneficial economic effects on home equity that such a rise might have… think again.”

Do we really want to be encouraging “cash constrained households” to buy houses they really cannot afford today?

Seriously.

Is not that “solution” somehow related, at least tangentially, to the problem we find ourselves in?

With a GM and Chrysler bankruptcy imminent . . . with declining real property values in Perrysburg . . . with our regional banks failing . . . might I suggest a tax cut?  A payroll tax cut?  A tax holiday?  A tax cut for business?  Something to goose employment?

I will encourage every American to pray for our leaders.  Pray that they have wisdom.  They are lacking it right now by borrowing or printing a TRILLION DOLLARS that we don’t have for things that will not work.

Case history:

1842 Watermill Lane in Perrysburg.   Great house. Great street.  Great neighborhood (disclosure: my brother lives right around the corner – which is no reflection of the quality of the other people in Rivercrest).

New in 1997 with a $366,000 price tag – 4700 sq. feet.

1842 Watermill in better times . . .

Refinanced for $488,000 in 2001, just 4 years after it was sold.   An indicated 33% gain!?!?

A new loan added to the tab in 2003.  For $100,000.  New imputed value $588,000.

Refinanced again in 2004.  $535,000 loan.

And then a second mortgage with First Franklin for an ADDITIONAL $125,000 in 2004.

AND:  new debt of a nature that the records I have access to make it difficult to fully ascertain, but a new $197,000 loan from Irwin Union Bank and Trust.

I will be conservative and HOPE that the $197 paid off the $125 2nd mortgage.

Which means in 2004 as our local market started melting down in flames, this $350,000 house had $732,000 in federally insured mortgages on it.

You think about that for a moment.

For the story gets worse.

Much worse.

Somehow the home went into foreclosure.  Oh my!  What a surprise!

And then, abandoned, cold, lonely, and without anyone paying the electric bill (and thus the juice for the sump pump) – bad little invisible gremlins moved into this house.

The basement filled with water.

The mold grew and grew and grew.

The banks that foreclosed on it put it on the market for $400,000 in November of 2007.

It finally sold, for $225,000 in December of 2008.

All that time it went down in value, the mold went up the walls, and the neighbors watched a good house become a drag on their homes’ values.

Let’s look at the math:  some collection of banks loaned AT LEAST $700,000 on this house.

They sold it for $225,000.

They had to pay lawyers, Realtors, tax bills, some insurance, internal management and holding costs – all told at least $25,000 over 2 years.

That represents a $500,000 loss.

And SOMEONE has to eat it.

Someone has to pay it.

This represents one of those “assets” you are hearing about.   Bank assets that no one wants to value.   Except that this one already hit the books because Northwest Ohio was first into the real estate recession.

Ignore the lost income tax, the lost property tax to our schools/city/county, the impact on the immediate neighbors.

Ignore it all.

The people who MADE the loans have passed their mistakes onto the taxpayers.

THAT is how close Perrysburg is to the real estate financing implosion.

Avoid the hassles of the city!

Avoid the noises of the city!

But get a big snow blower and a big lawn tractor.

5 acres, 3 beds, new baths, and a bargain price for 4171 Dowling Road.  Perrysburg mailing address with excellent Eastwood Schools.  $150’s.

Did I mention 5 acres?

No pole barn yet, that is the first thing the next buyer will add.

We call them “Toy Boxes” in male real estate lingo.

You will love this home.  So new on the market there are no photos and no brochures or virtual tours yet.

Tell a buyer you know if you don’t love country living.

This house will make some city slicker very, very happy.